???? 據(jù)2月21日Trade Arabia消息：行業(yè)專家表示，美國極地風(fēng)暴目前已導(dǎo)致美國90%聚丙烯產(chǎn)能關(guān)閉，67%乙烯產(chǎn)能關(guān)閉，并破壞了其他重要產(chǎn)品，引發(fā)全球化工市場價格飆升。

????ICIS化學(xué)公司的Will Beacham補充稱，墨西哥灣沿岸地區(qū)更多化工廠和煉油廠受到冰凍和冰雪天氣導(dǎo)致的電力和原料長時間中斷的打擊，導(dǎo)致物流網(wǎng)絡(luò)中斷。

????預(yù)計本周晚些時候更多惡劣天氣可能會延長交通中斷。

????到目前為止，ICIS已經(jīng)報告60多起因風(fēng)暴導(dǎo)致的工廠停工，使用ICIS供求數(shù)據(jù)庫進(jìn)行的數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，海灣石化行業(yè)的大部分領(lǐng)域都受到嚴(yán)重影響。

????從產(chǎn)量來看，受沖擊最大的是乙烯，離線產(chǎn)能為2600萬噸，占美國總量的67%。大約1100萬噸(50%)的丙烯產(chǎn)能也處于停產(chǎn)狀態(tài)，該地區(qū)許多煉油廠的產(chǎn)量也在減少。超過200萬桶/天的美國煉油產(chǎn)能被關(guān)閉。

????按百分比計算，受影響最嚴(yán)重的主要商品是環(huán)氧氯丙烷(美國產(chǎn)能100%脫機)、環(huán)氧丙烷(100%)、甲苯二異氰酸酯(100%)、乙二醇(90%)、聚丙烯(90%)、丙二醇(88%)、丙烯腈(73%)和丁苯橡膠(71%)。

????停電正在使本已遭受物資短缺和價格上漲之苦的全球市場吃緊。全球集裝箱運輸系統(tǒng)問題、工廠停產(chǎn)加上健康的下游需求導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)緊張，尤其是丙烯和聚乙烯鏈。

????丙烯和聚丙烯可能是受風(fēng)暴影響最嚴(yán)重的產(chǎn)品之一，因為市場已經(jīng)處于動蕩之中。冠狀病毒大流行減少了對運輸燃料的需求，并導(dǎo)致煉油廠關(guān)閉或減產(chǎn)，特別是在歐洲和美國。

????這些工廠的關(guān)閉對丙烯和聚丙烯的供應(yīng)產(chǎn)生了連鎖反應(yīng)，導(dǎo)致價格飆升。由于美國聚丙烯生產(chǎn)能力高度集中在墨西哥灣沿岸，即使暫時受到限制的生產(chǎn)能力也將對本已緊張的市場產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

????美國丙烯價格處于10年高點，庫存約為一年前的一半。由于去年丙烯產(chǎn)量減少，消費量超過了生產(chǎn)量。

????2020年末，美國聚丙烯庫存觸及7年低點，部分原因是需求反彈和單體供應(yīng)限制。在此天氣事件之前還出現(xiàn)了生產(chǎn)問題。

????聚乙烯市場沒那么嚴(yán)重。包裝供應(yīng)和需求的限制支撐了全球市場度過大流行，物流挑戰(zhàn)和停運導(dǎo)致2021年短缺和價格飆升。

????隨著美國近三分之二的乙烯產(chǎn)能下線，全球聚乙烯市場可能會進(jìn)一步趨緊。

????暴風(fēng)雨影響，Lucite拆除了位于德克薩斯州博蒙特的工廠，預(yù)計美國甲基丙烯酸甲酯（MMA）的供應(yīng)也將進(jìn)一步受到限制。原料丙酮的嚴(yán)格限制繼續(xù)限制產(chǎn)量。由于成本高昂，聽說生產(chǎn)商將從本月開始對訂單征收丙酮臨時附加費。

????隨著2月17日春節(jié)假期的結(jié)束，全球最大化學(xué)品市場的需求開始回升。

????在非洲，各種來源的聚乙烯和聚丙烯賣家已撤回報價，預(yù)計美國出口將中斷，節(jié)后市場將強勁反彈。

????亞洲單乙二醇(MEG)價格周四飆升11%，為創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的最大單日漲幅，其支撐因素是全球供應(yīng)收緊。

????有人擔(dān)心，美國向亞洲出口的乙烯等關(guān)鍵大宗商品可能會因與風(fēng)暴相關(guān)的供應(yīng)中斷而中斷。

????歐洲價格也受到風(fēng)暴的提振。上游價格上漲和看漲情緒推高了苯價格，苯乙烯價格目前處于2018年4月以來的最高水平。

????馮娟 摘譯自 Trade Arabia

????原文如下：

????Global chemical prices soar over US polar storm

????The US polar storm has now shut down 90% of US polypropylene (PP) capacity, 67% of ethylene and devastated other important products, sending ripples around global chemical markets prices soaring, said n industry expert.

????More chemical plants and refineries across the Gulf Coast region have been hit by prolonged power and feedstock outages caused by freezing weather, snow and ice which have also halted logistics networks, added Will Beacham at ICIS Chemical Business.

????More bad weather, forecast for later in the week, may prolong the disruption.

????So far, ICIS has reported more than 60 plant outages as a result of the storm, with analysis using data from the ICIS Supply & Demand database showing that a wide swathe of the Gulf petrochemical sector has now been severely impacted.

????Worst hit in volume terms is ethylene, with 26m tonnes of capacity offline, representing 67% of the US total. Around 11m tonnes, or 50%, of propylene capacity is also offline, with many of the region’s oil refineries also seeing curtailed production. More than 2m bbl/day of US oil refining capacity is shut down.

????In percentage terms, the major commodities worst affected are epichlorohydrin (ECH) (100% of US capacity offline), propylene oxide (PO) (100%), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) (100%), ethylene glycol (EG) (90%), polypropylene (PP) (90%), propylene glycol (88%), acrylonitrile (ACN) (73%) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) (71%).

????The outages are tightening global markets which were already suffering shortages of material and rising prices. Problems with the global container shipping system, plant outages plus healthy downstream demand have caused tightness, notably down the propylene and polyethylene (PE) chains.

????Propylene and PP are likely to be one of the hardest-hit by the storms because the market was already in turmoil. The coronavirus pandemic has reduced demand for transport fuels, and led to oil refineries closing or cutting production, particularly in Europe and the US.

????These closures had a knock-on effect on supply of propylene and PP, leading to price spikes. With US PP production capacity so highly concentrated on the Gulf Coast, even temporarily constrained productions capabilities will have a massive effect on an already tightly supplied market.

????US propylene prices are at 10-year highs and inventories are roughly half of what they were a year ago. Consumption has outpaced production due to reduced propylene production over the last year.

????PP inventories in the US hit seven-year lows in late 2020, partially driven by rebounding demand and partially driven by limited monomer availability. Some PP production issues also preceded this weather event.

????The situation is less dramatic in PE. Constrained supply and demand for packaging has sustained global markets through the pandemic, with logistics challenges and outages causing shortages and price spikes in 2021.

????With almost two thirds of US ethylene capacity now offline, global PE markets are likely to tighten further.

????US methyl methacrylate (MMA) supply is also expected to be further constrained thanks to the storm, as Lucite has taken down its plant in Beaumont, Texas. Severe constraints in feedstock acetone continue to limit production. Due to high costs, a producer is heard to be levying a temporary acetone surcharge on orders starting this month.

????Global market impact

????With the Chinese New Year holidays coming to an end from 17 February, demand is picking back up in the world’s largest chemicals market. ICIS reported that a supply shortage and improving demand after the holidays supported China’s polyolefins market, leading to a surge in futures and spot prices.

????Futures prices in China also rose sharply for styrene, mono ethylene glycol (MEG), polyester and polypropylene.

????Prior to the holiday, domestic petrochemical trading had been robust accompanied by sharp price increases as market players anticipated strong post-holiday demand. Surging oil prices provided additional impetus for the uptrend.

????In Africa, PE and PP sellers, from all origins, have withdrawn their offers in anticipation of disruption to US exports and a strong return post-holiday market.

????Asia’s monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices surged on Thursday by 11% - the biggest daily gain on record - underpinned by tightening global supply, as the Chinese markets re-opened after a week-long holiday.

????There are fears that US exports to Asia of key commodities such as ethylene could be disrupted by the storm-related outages.

????Europe prices have also been buoyed by the storms. Rising upstream prices and bullish sentiment sent benzene prices up, and styrene prices are now at highs not seen since April 2018.