???? 據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)2月15日倫敦報(bào)道，油價(jià)已經(jīng)達(dá)到了一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的臨界點(diǎn)，歐佩克+必須決定是否增加產(chǎn)量，否則市場(chǎng)份額將再次被美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商搶走。

????即月布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格已從去年11月宣布首次成功的疫苗時(shí)的不到40美元和當(dāng)疫情在4月肆虐時(shí)的不到20美元攀升至每桶60美元以上。

????在調(diào)整通貨膨脹后，布倫特價(jià)格現(xiàn)在是自1990年初以來(lái)所有月的第58百分位數(shù)，這與非歐佩克生產(chǎn)國(guó)的產(chǎn)量緩慢但穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng)是一致的。

????過(guò)去十年，每當(dāng)布倫特原油均價(jià)超過(guò)每桶57美元時(shí)，美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)商就會(huì)抓住全球石油消費(fèi)的所有增長(zhǎng)，以犧牲歐佩克及其盟國(guó)的利益為代價(jià)，增加其市場(chǎng)份額。

????根據(jù)油田服務(wù)公司貝克休斯(baker hughes)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，針對(duì)早些時(shí)候油價(jià)上漲，美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商已經(jīng)將石油鉆機(jī)的數(shù)量從8月份的172臺(tái)低點(diǎn)增加到近300臺(tái)。

????最近的價(jià)格上漲可能會(huì)確保在用鉆機(jī)的數(shù)量至少在6月底之前有所增加，如果按目前的趨勢(shì)繼續(xù)下去，屆時(shí)數(shù)量可能超過(guò)425臺(tái)甚至450臺(tái)。

????考慮到鉆機(jī)數(shù)量不斷上升，預(yù)計(jì)到2021年年底，除墨西哥灣以外的美國(guó)48個(gè)州的石油產(chǎn)量將從目前的水平每天增加34萬(wàn)桶。

????根據(jù)能源信息署(EIA)2月9日的“短期能源展望”，到2022年年底，日產(chǎn)量將再增加64萬(wàn)桶。

????如果價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲，那么2021年下半年和2022年，鉆探和產(chǎn)量都可能更快地加速。

????郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

????原文如下:

????Oil prices hit critical threshold for OPEC+

????Oil prices have reached a critical threshold where OPEC+ must decide whether to increase production, or risk losing market share again to U.S. shale producers.

????Front-month Brent futures prices have climbed to more than $60 per barrel, up from less than $40 when the first successful vaccines were announced in November, and less than $20 when the pandemic was raging in April.

????After adjusting for inflation, Brent prices are now in the 58th percentile for all months since the start of 1990, which is consistent with slow but steady increases in output by non-OPEC producers.

????In the last decade, whenever Brent prices averaged more than about $57 per barrel, U.S. producers captured all the growth in global oil consumption, increasing their market share at the expense of OPEC and its allies.

????Responding to the earlier rise in prices, U.S. producers have already increased the number of rigs drilling for oil to nearly 300, up from a low of just 172 in August, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.

????More recent price increases are likely to ensure the number of active rigs increases at least until the end of June, when the count is likely to exceed 425 or even 450, if the current trend continues.

????Reflecting the rising rig count, U.S. production from the Lower 48 states excluding the Gulf of Mexico is already forecast to rise from current levels by 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2021.

????Further production gains of 640,000 bpd are expected by the end of 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration ("Short-term energy outlook", EIA, Feb. 9).

????If prices rise further, both drilling and production are likely to accelerate even faster in the second half of 2021 and 2022.