????據(jù)今日油價(jià)1月26日消息稱，Rystad Energy對(duì)海恩斯和布恩的數(shù)據(jù)分析顯示，根據(jù)美國(guó)破產(chǎn)法第11章申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的北美勘探開發(fā)公司和油田服務(wù)公司的債務(wù)總額去年躍升至1020億美元，首次超過1000億美元大關(guān)。盡管申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的公司數(shù)量低于2016年經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期，但108家申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的公司的平均債務(wù)幾乎是去年的兩倍，達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的9.4億美元。

????去年可以說是北美油氣行業(yè)歷史上最具破壞性的一年。即便如此，Rystad Energy的分析結(jié)論是通過淘汰陷入困境的公司，并允許其健康的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手繼續(xù)留在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)場(chǎng)上，快速減少了市場(chǎng)參與者的數(shù)量。

????2020年最后三個(gè)月WTI價(jià)格的復(fù)蘇有助于減緩申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)的數(shù)量。Rystad Energy預(yù)計(jì)，如果目前的WTI油價(jià)水平在2021年持續(xù)在53美元，申請(qǐng)數(shù)量將再次恢復(fù)正常，降至大流行前的水平，今年達(dá)到26起，2022年達(dá)到22起，低于2020年的46起，與2017-2018年的水平相近。

????Rystad Energy頁(yè)巖研究主管Artem Abramov表示：“從本質(zhì)上說，幾乎所有公共的勘探和生產(chǎn)廠商現(xiàn)在都可以順利度過2021年，沒有重大的破產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，無論如何，我們應(yīng)該記住，有一定數(shù)量的公司申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)是正常的，應(yīng)該被視為油氣業(yè)務(wù)不可分割的一部分。”

????去年，破產(chǎn)的勘探生產(chǎn)公司的債務(wù)總額比2016年減少約6億美元，為562億美元，而2016年為568億美元。然而，去年每家公司的平均債務(wù)達(dá)到了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的12億美元，這表明2017年至2020年期間，申報(bào)債務(wù)的平均規(guī)模大幅增加。

????去年勘探生產(chǎn)公司破產(chǎn)的一個(gè)重要原因是2019年開始的一種趨勢(shì)的結(jié)果，當(dāng)時(shí)我們看到美國(guó)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)勘探生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)模式發(fā)生巨大變化，可用資金減少。這促使一些公司在早期申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)，在支撐資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和獲得運(yùn)營(yíng)資金之間進(jìn)行艱難的權(quán)衡。

????在油田服務(wù)方面，在2020年提交的62份破產(chǎn)案中，債務(wù)總額為450億美元，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了2017年創(chuàng)下的350億美元的紀(jì)錄。這一數(shù)字的很大一部分來自于主要的海上鉆井公司，包括Diamond、Noble、Valaris和Seadrill Partners。以陸上為重點(diǎn)的服務(wù)提供商和供應(yīng)商也做出了重大貢獻(xiàn)——在案件數(shù)量上略高于債務(wù)總額。

????積極的一面是，去年最后三個(gè)月，北美石油和天然氣公司申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)活動(dòng)已經(jīng)平靜了不少。自 2020 年9月以來，OFS 和 E&P 的月度破產(chǎn)債務(wù)總額一直低于62億美元。

????市場(chǎng)基本面改善救了一大批企業(yè)。由于WTI的交易價(jià)格高于53美元/桶，且活動(dòng)指標(biāo)呈上升趨勢(shì)，他們可能會(huì)對(duì)自己有能力避免在2021年尋求破產(chǎn)保護(hù)感到更加放心。

????Abramov總結(jié)道：“隨著WTI 價(jià)格處在53美元，該行業(yè)正在恢復(fù)正常運(yùn)營(yíng)模式。同樣重要的是要記住，那些資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表最薄弱的公司已經(jīng)申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)。如果有什么不同的話，市場(chǎng)基本面的改善將加速?gòu)?020年開始的重組過程，一些勘探開發(fā)公司可能會(huì)在2021年更快地恢復(fù)業(yè)務(wù)。”

????預(yù)計(jì)在2021-2022年申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的勘探開發(fā)公司的平均債務(wù)規(guī)模將大大低于2020年的平均水平。因此，申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的公司背后的債務(wù)總額預(yù)計(jì)將從 2020 年的 560 億美元下降至 2021-2022 年的每年100億美元—130 億美元—這清楚地表明，該行業(yè)正受益于市場(chǎng)的上升周期。

????曹海斌 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

????原文如下：

????U.S. Oil Bankruptcies To Fall As Prices Stabilize

????The combined debt of North American E&P and oilfield service companies that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last year jumped to $102 billion, surpassing the $100 billion mark for the first time, a Rystad Energy analysis of Haynes and Boone data shows. While the number of filings was lower than in the 2016 downturn, the average debt of the 108 companies that filed for Chapter 11 was almost twice as high at a record $940 million.

????Last year was arguably the most devastating year in history for the North American oil and gas industry. Even so, Rystad Energy’s analysis concludes that 2020’s round of Chapter 11 filings fast-tracked an overdue reduction in the number of market participants by removing troubled companies and allowing their healthier competitors to remain in the playing field.

????A recovery in WTI prices in the last three months of 2020 helped slow down the number of Chapter 11 filings. If the current oil price level of almost $53 WTI persists in 2021, Rystad Energy expects the filings count to normalize again and sink to pre-pandemic standards, reaching around 26 E&P cases this year and 22 in 2022, down from 46 filings in 2020 and similar to 2017–2018 levels.

????“In essence, nearly all public E&P producers are now positioned to navigate 2021 without significant bankruptcy risks. Nevertheless, regardless of the upcycle, we should keep in mind that a certain number of Chapter 11 E&P cases is normal and should be viewed as an integral part of the oil and gas business,“ says Artem Abramov, Head of Shale Research at Rystad Energy.

????Last year’s total Chapter 11 debt for E&P companies fell around $600 million short of the number recorded in 2016, at $56.2 billion vs $56.8 billion. However, the average debt per company reached a record high of $1.2 billion last year, indicating that the average size of the filings increased substantially between 2017 and 2020.

????A significant part of last year’s E&P Chapter 11 activity was the result of a trend that started in 2019, when we saw a massive change in the standard US E&P business model with reduced availability of capital. This contributed to early Chapter 11 filings by companies dealing with a challenging trade-off between shoring up their balance sheet and securing funds for operations.

????On the oilfield services side, total Chapter 11 debt in the 62 filings made in 2020 ended up at $45 billion, surpassing by a wide margin the previous record of $35 billion set in 2017. A large contribution to this number came from major offshore drillers, including Diamond, Noble, Valaris and Seadrill Partners. Onshore-focused service providers and suppliers also contributed significantly – somewhat more in the number of cases than in total debt.

????On a positive note, Chapter 11 activity for North American oil and gas players had already calmed down quite a bit in the final three months of last year. The total monthly Chapter 11 debt has remained below $6.2 billion since September 2020, for both OFS and E&Ps combined.

????A large number of companies were saved by the improvement in market fundamentals. They can feel even more comfortable about their ability to avoid seeking Chapter 11 protection in 2021, as WTI trades above $53 per barrel and activity metrics are trending upwards.

????“With WTI at $53, the industry is getting back to a normal operations mode. It is also important to keep in mind that the companies with the weakest balance sheets have already filed for bankruptcy. If anything, improved market fundamentals will accelerate the restructuring process that started in 2020 and some E&Ps might return to business faster in 2021,“ Abramov concludes.

????The average debt size of the E&P companies projected to file for bankruptcy protection in 2021–2022 will be dramatically lower than the average seen in 2020. Total debt behind Chapter 11 E&P filings is therefore expected to fall from $56 billion in 2020 to $10 billion–$13 billion per year in 2021–2022 – clear evidence that the industry is benefiting from an upcycle in the market.