據(jù)彭博社5月12日消息稱，國際能源署表示，盡管印度疫情再次使需求受到打擊，但全球疫情造成的供應(yīng)過剩已經(jīng)消除。
IEA周三表示，發(fā)達國家目前的過剩石油庫存僅為去年需求驟降時的一小部分，OPEC及其盟友的減產(chǎn)耗盡了過剩庫存。不過，該機構(gòu)認為，在今年晚些時候恢復(fù)之前，隨著新冠肆虐印度，全球消費將暫時受挫。
IEA在其月度報告中表示：“去年Covid-19需求沖擊期間積累的過高的世界石油庫存已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到更正常的水平。但是印度的Covid危機提醒我們，石油需求前景仍充滿不確定性。在疫情得到控制之前，市場波動可能會持續(xù)。”
隨著中國和美國的燃料消費回升，今年石油市場的復(fù)蘇勢頭得以延續(xù)，將倫敦國際原油價格推高至每桶約69美元。
IEA稱，今年3月，發(fā)達國家的石油庫存僅比2015年至2019年的平均水平高3690萬桶，低于去年夏季約2.5億桶的過剩水平。與2016年至2020年的平均水平相比，過剩原油僅為170萬桶，還不到一艘超級油輪的容量。
需求正遭遇暫時挫折，由于疫情在印度蔓延，預(yù)計第二季度印度石油日消費量將減少63萬桶。對2021年全球石油需求的估計減少了27萬桶/天，降至9640萬桶/天。總部位于巴黎的IEA為大多數(shù)主要經(jīng)濟體提供咨詢服務(wù)。
IEA石油市場和工業(yè)部門負責人Toril Bosoni在接受彭博社電視采訪時表示“需求前景仍然脆弱。不過，該機構(gòu)“預(yù)計今年下半年需求增長將強勁復(fù)蘇。”
在經(jīng)歷了2020年前所未有的暴跌之后，今年全球石油消費量有望反彈540萬桶/日，漲幅為6%。復(fù)蘇將在下半年將加劇勢頭，導(dǎo)致庫存進一步減少。
這將給以沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯為首的由23個國家組成的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟帶來一個選擇:要么進一步恢復(fù)暫停的石油產(chǎn)量，要么繼續(xù)收緊全球市場。
歐佩克及其合作伙伴正在分3個月恢復(fù)約200萬桶的日產(chǎn)量。IEA的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當7月份增產(chǎn)完成時，對歐佩克原油的需求仍將高于產(chǎn)量。
根據(jù)IEA的報告，歐佩克13個成員國上個月的日產(chǎn)量約為2500萬桶，而第三季度的供應(yīng)需求預(yù)計為2810萬桶。
朱佳妮 摘譯自 彭博社
原文如下：
IEA Declares End to Global Oil Glut
The International Energy Agency said the supply glut created by the global pandemic has cleared, even as demand suffers a blow from a resurgence of the virus in India.
Surplus oil inventories in developed nations are now just a small fraction of the levels seen when demand collapsed last year, with output cuts by OPEC and its allies draining the excess, the IEA said on Wednesday. Still, the agency sees a temporary setback for global consumption as infections rock India, before the recovery resumes later in the year.
“Bloated world oil inventories that built up during last year’s Covid-19 demand shock have returned to more normal levels,” the IEA said in its monthly report. “But India’s Covid crisis is a reminder that the outlook for oil demand is mired in uncertainty. Until the pandemic is brought under control, market volatility is likely to persist.”
Oil markets have extended their recovery this year as fuel consumption roars back in China and the U.S., buoying international crude prices to about $69 a barrel in London.
In March, oil inventories in developed nations stood just 36.9 million barrels above the average level from 2015 to 2019, down from a surplus of about 250 million barrels last summer, the IEA said. Compared with the average for 2016 to 2020, the excess is just 1.7 million barrels, less than the capacity of a single supertanker.
Demand is suffering a temporary setback, with forecasts for Indian consumption in the second quarter cut by 630,000 barrels a day as a brutal wave of infections spreads across the country. Estimates for global demand in 2021 were trimmed by 270,000 barrels a day, to 96.4 million a day. The Paris-based IEA advises most major economies.
“The outlook for demand remains fragile,” Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s oil markets and industry division, said in a Bloomberg television interview. Still, the agency is “expecting a very strong recovery in demand growth in the second half of the year.”
Global consumption is on track for a rebound of 5.4 million barrels a day, or 6%, this year after 2020’s unprecedented slump. The recovery will gather momentum in the second half, causing stockpiles to dwindle even further.
That will present the 23-nation OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia with a choice: restore some more of the production they’ve halted, or continue to tighten global markets.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are in the process of reviving about 2 million barrels of daily output in three monthly installments. When the increase is completed in July, the IEA’s data indicates that demand for the cartel’s crude will still be higher than its production.
OPEC’s 13 members pumped about 25 million barrels a day last month, while demand for their supply in the third quarter is projected at 28.1 million barrels, according to the IEA report.
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