???? 據(jù)ICIS-MRC網(wǎng)站5月28日莫斯科報(bào)道，印度新冠疫情病例的快速增加導(dǎo)致各種旅行限制，減少了汽油和柴油等交通燃料的消耗。因此，根據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)信息顯示，EIA在5月份的短期能源展望(STEO)中下調(diào)了對(duì)印度石油消費(fèi)的預(yù)測(cè)。

????據(jù)EIA估計(jì)，3月至4月間，印度的石油日消耗量減少了40萬(wàn)桶，降幅8%，降至470萬(wàn)桶。

????在5月份STEO發(fā)布之后，印度的石油消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與同期相比下降了30萬(wàn)桶/天(降幅6%)。印度的旅游人數(shù)可能會(huì)繼續(xù)減少，因此其將5月和6月的石油消費(fèi)量也從4月的STEO數(shù)據(jù)下調(diào)。EIA預(yù)計(jì)，到7月份，印度的石油和其他液體消費(fèi)量將恢復(fù)到此前預(yù)測(cè)的水平。

????印度石油和天然氣部石油規(guī)劃和分析小組(PPAC)的數(shù)據(jù)表明，去年9月汽油和柴油消費(fèi)量恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平，并持續(xù)到2021年3月。然而，汽油和柴油消費(fèi)量在2021年4月有所下降，這反映了新冠病例的增加以及該國(guó)為限制其傳播而采取的應(yīng)對(duì)措施。

????根據(jù)實(shí)時(shí)流動(dòng)性指標(biāo)顯示，到5月中旬，印度的旅游人數(shù)下降幅度更大。谷歌新冠疫情社區(qū)流動(dòng)報(bào)告提供了與2020年1月3日至2020年2月6日的基線相比，各地訪問(wèn)次數(shù)變化的數(shù)據(jù)。截至2021年5月21日，根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，過(guò)去幾周，印度前往各類目的地的旅游人數(shù)大幅下降，這可能反映了該國(guó)對(duì)疫情的應(yīng)對(duì)。

????同樣，根據(jù)谷歌的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2021年5月中旬，居家時(shí)間的百分比較基準(zhǔn)期增加了25%。2021年5月中旬在家的時(shí)間與2020年4月人們?cè)诩业臅r(shí)間相似，當(dāng)時(shí)印度的旅行也顯著減少。2021年5月的流動(dòng)性下降與汽油和柴油需求的大幅下降是一致的，但下降的程度將取決于這些情況持續(xù)多久，以及該國(guó)對(duì)疫情的應(yīng)對(duì)最終會(huì)變得有多嚴(yán)格。

????郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

????原文如下：

????EIA revises down its forecast of India oil demand due to rising COVID-19 cases

????The rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in India has led to various travel restrictions, which reduced the consumption of transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel. As a result, EIA revised down its forecast for petroleum consumption in India in the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.

????EIA estimates that petroleum consumption in India declined by 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) (8%) to 4.7 million b/d between March and April.

????India’s petroleum consumption data, released after the May STEO’s publication, revealed a similar decline of 0.3 million b/d (6%) over the same period. Reduced travel in India will likely continue, so it also revised down petroleum consumption in May and June from the April STEO. EIA expects India’s consumption of petroleum and other liquids will return to previously forecast levels by July.

????Data from India’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) of its Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas indicate that consumption of gasoline and diesel returned to pre-pandemic levels by September 2020 and continued through March 2021. Gasoline and diesel consumption, however, declined in April 2021, reflecting the increases in COVID-19 cases and the country’s responses to limit its spread.

????Real-time mobility indicators suggest even larger declines in travel in India through mid-May. The Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports provide data on the change in the number of visits to various places compared with a baseline from January 3, 2020, to February 6, 2020. As of May 21, 2021, the data indicate that travel in India to every category of destination has declined significantly over the past several weeks, likely reflecting the country’s response to the outbreak.

????Similarly, Google data indicate that the percentage of time spent at home increased 25% in mid-May 2021 from the baseline period. Time spent at home in mid-May 2021 was similar to the amount of time people spent at home in April 2020, when travel in India was also significantly low. The May 2021 drop in mobility is consistent with large declines in gasoline and diesel demand, but the extent of the decline will depend on how long these conditions last and how severe the country’s responses to the outbreak ultimately become.

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