據美國鉆井網站2021年6月7日報道，惠譽解決方案最新發布的油價展望報告顯示，其麾下的國家風險與行業研究部門將布倫特原油價格預測維持到2025年不變。
惠譽解決方案6月份的報告預計，布倫特原油今年的平均價格為66美元/桶，2022年為64美元/桶，2023年為65美元/桶，2024年為70美元/桶，2025年為72美元/桶。這些預測與其5月份報告中的預測相同。
彭博共識預測，2021年和2022年布倫特原油均價為65美元/桶，2023年為64.5美元/桶，2024年為65美元/桶，2025年為65.9美元/桶。回到惠譽解決方案 5月份的報告中，彭博共識預測，2021年布倫特原油均價為64美元/桶，2022年為64.5美元/桶，2023年為65.3美元/桶，2024年為65美元/桶，2025年為66美元/桶。
惠譽解決方案的分析師在該公司6月份的油價展望報告中表示：“在2021年期間多次測試該水平以后，布倫特原油價格最終在6月1日報收于70美元/桶的關鍵阻力位上方。”
分析師在報告中補充道：“未來幾個月，隨著一系列看漲因素的形成，其中包括來自美國、歐洲等國似乎正在從新冠肺炎疫情相關逆風中復蘇的市場強勁需求信號，原油價格仍有維持在這一水平以上的空間.。”
分析師說：“然而，仍存在一些下行風險，尤其是在亞洲部分地區Covid-19感染確證數再次上升。印度每日新增感染確證人數雖然比5月初的峰值減少了一半以上，但仍存在重大風險，包括負擔過重的國內醫療體系和黑真菌等其他非冠狀病毒傳染病的出現。”
分析人士在報告中警告稱，南亞和東南亞的其他幾個市場也出現了感染的復發，他們強調，這已促使各國政府重新引入嚴格的遏制措施，包括部分封鎖。
根據世界衛生組織的最新信息，截至6月6日下午4:07，全球共有1.726億新冠肺炎確診病例，370萬人死亡。世衛組織的數據顯示，截至6月2日，全球接種了超過16億劑疫苗。
李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站
原文如下：
Fitch Solutions Releases Latest Oil Price Forecasts
Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has kept its Brent crude forecasts out to 2025 unchanged, the company’s latest oil price outlook report has revealed.
The company’s June report sees Brent averaging $66 per barrel this year, $64 per barrel in 2022, $65 per barrel in 2023, $70 per barrel in 2024, and $72 per barrel in 2025. These forecasts are the same as the ones in the company’s May report.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, sees Brent averaging $65 per barrel in 2021 and 2022, $64.5 per barrel in 2023, $65 per barrel in 2024 and $65.9 per barrel in 2025. Back in Fitch Solutions’ May report, the Bloomberg Consensus saw Brent averaging $64 per barrel in 2021, $64.5 per barrel in 2022, $65.3 per barrel in 2023, $65 per barrel in 2024, and $66 per barrel in 2025.
“Brent finally closed above the key resistance of $70 per barrel on June 1 after testing that level on several occasions during 2021,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the company’s June oil price outlook.
“There is scope for prices to hold above this level in the coming months with a number of bullish triggers forming on the horizon, including strong demand signals from markets that appear to be re-emerging from Covid-19-related headwinds such as the U.S., Europe,” the analysts added in the report.
“However, there are still few downside risks, not least in the form of re-surging Covid-19 infections in parts of Asia. The number of daily new infections in India have more than halved from its peak in early-May, although significant risks remain, including the over-burdened domestic healthcare system and threats from emergence of other non-Covid infectious diseases such as the black fungus,” the analysts continued.
Analysts warned in the report that a few other markets across South and South East Asia are also seeing relapses in infections, which they highlighted have prompted governments to re-introduce strict containment measures, including partial lockdowns.
As of June 6, 4.07pm CEST, there have been 172.6 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally, with 3.7 million deaths, according to the latest information from the World Health Organization (WHO). As of June 2, more than 1.6 billion vaccine doses have been administered around the world, WHO data shows.
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