據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)6月18日消息稱，彭博資訊估計(jì)，由于嚴(yán)格的資本支出和較高的油價(jià)，2021年美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣生產(chǎn)商預(yù)計(jì)將產(chǎn)生總計(jì)300億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流。

　　今年，頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商繼續(xù)嚴(yán)格控制支出，并沒(méi)有在新鉆井上進(jìn)行再投資，投資金額不會(huì)超過(guò)其賺得的現(xiàn)金流。

　　在經(jīng)歷了2015-2016年的低迷后，回到2017年，就連Harold Hamm也警告其他油氣生產(chǎn)商要小心，因?yàn)椤般@井公司不想勘探到破產(chǎn)。”

　　去年的疫情開(kāi)啟了分析師所說(shuō)的美國(guó)頁(yè)巖的“新時(shí)代”，在這個(gè)時(shí)代，股東回報(bào)和償還債務(wù)優(yōu)先于產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)和創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的產(chǎn)量。

　　根據(jù)德勤去年的估計(jì)，自第一次頁(yè)巖繁榮以來(lái)的15年里，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)損失了3000億美元的凈負(fù)現(xiàn)金流，而今年預(yù)計(jì)從自由現(xiàn)金流中獲得的意外之財(cái)僅僅是這個(gè)數(shù)字的十分之一。

　　盡管如此，對(duì)今年自由現(xiàn)金流的預(yù)期讓分析師們樂(lè)觀地認(rèn)為，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖領(lǐng)域正處于轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，并將至少在一到兩年內(nèi)保持自律。

　　ESAI能源公司北美上游分析師Elisabeth Murphy告訴彭博社:“從財(cái)務(wù)角度來(lái)看，頁(yè)巖正進(jìn)入一個(gè)新的、更好的時(shí)代，盈利能力更高。”

　　美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商第一季度的收益和電話會(huì)議凸顯了上市頁(yè)巖油公司前所未有的克制。上市生產(chǎn)商創(chuàng)造了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流，但他們并沒(méi)有將其中大部分再投資于鉆井。相反，頁(yè)巖運(yùn)營(yíng)商現(xiàn)在正在將現(xiàn)金流用于減少債務(wù)和回報(bào)股東。盡管第一季油價(jià)大漲逾20%，但美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣并未違背限制產(chǎn)量和優(yōu)先考慮回報(bào)的承諾。

　　曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. Shale Set For Record $30 Billion Free Cash Flow In 2021

　　U.S. shale producers are expected to generate a combined $30 billion in free cash flow in 2021 amid disciplined capital spending and higher oil prices, estimates from Bloomberg Intelligence show.

　　This year, shale producers continue to adhere to disciplined spending and is not reinvesting in new drilling more than the cash flows it earns.

　　After the 2015-2016 downturn, back in 2017, even Harold Hamm warned his fellow oil and gas producers to be careful as “drillers don’t want to drill themselves into oblivion.”

　　The pandemic last year started what analysts have begun to call “a new era” for U.S. shale where returns to shareholders and paying down debts take precedence over production growth and record output.

　　The expected windfall from free cash flow this year is just one-tenth of the $300 billion in net negative cash flow the U.S. shale industry had lost in the 15 years since the first shale boom, as per Deloitte estimates from last year.

　　Nevertheless, the expectations of free cash flow this year make analysts optimistic that the U.S. shale patch is at a turning point and will keep discipline for at least another year or two.

　　“From a financial perspective, shale is entering a new, better era, with higher profitability,” Elisabeth Murphy, ESAI Energy LLC upstream analyst for North America, told Bloomberg.

　　The first-quarter earnings and conference calls of U.S. producers highlighted a previously unheard-of restraint from public shale firms. Listed producers generated record cash flows, but they are not reinvesting most of those back to drilling. Instead, shale operators are now channeling cash flow toward reducing debts and rewarding shareholders. Despite the first-quarter rally of over 20 percent in oil prices, U.S. shale did not break the promises to keep a lid on production and prioritize returns.

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