據(jù)今日油價7月19日報道，油價在周一早盤下跌近4%，WTI原油跌至每桶69美元上方，此前歐佩克+石油輸出國組織（OPEC+）周日決定，從8月份開始每月向市場返還40萬桶/日（bpd），直至解除所有580萬桶/日的減產(chǎn)。

　　歐佩克+聯(lián)盟每月增加石油供應(yīng)的前景，正值許多國家的感染人數(shù)上升之際，因為Delta型病毒傳播速度更快。石油輸出國組織(OPEC，簡稱:歐佩克)及其以俄羅斯為首的非歐佩克伙伴國供應(yīng)增加，對全球石油需求復(fù)蘇可能受阻的擔(dān)憂拖累油價周一下跌。

　　截至美國東部時間上午8:22，WTI原油價格下跌3.9%至69.01美元，布倫特原油下跌3.52%至71.00美元。

　　歐佩克+就產(chǎn)量和基準產(chǎn)量水平達成協(xié)議的事實消除了市場的一個重大不確定性，其中一部分原因是擔(dān)心聯(lián)盟解體。

　　RBC資本市場全球大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft對CNBC表示，這筆交易對市場具有建設(shè)性意義，他指出：“這一協(xié)議應(yīng)該讓市場參與者感到安慰，即該集團不會走向混亂的分拆，短期內(nèi)也不會打開生產(chǎn)閘門。”

　　盡管未來幾個月，歐佩克+將增加越來越多的供應(yīng)，但許多分析師仍認為，由于需求持續(xù)增長，市場將保持相對緊張的局面。

　　例如，荷蘭國際集團（ING）保持了今年第三季度布倫特原油每桶75美元的油價預(yù)期，因為歐佩克（OPEC+）增加的供應(yīng)符合該行此前的預(yù)測。

　　ING策略師Warren Patterson和Wenyu Yao周一早些時候表示：“健康的需求增長加上歐佩克+的溫和供應(yīng)增長，至少在短期內(nèi)仍可能對石油市場構(gòu)成支撐”。

　　高盛（Goldman Sachs）繼續(xù)看好石油，甚至認為歐佩克+協(xié)議較今年夏天每桶80美元的布倫特原油期貨預(yù)期上漲。

　　壽琳玲 編譯自 今日油價

　　Oil Prices Crash After OPEC+ Reaches Deal To Ease Cuts

　　Oil prices dropped by nearly 4 percent early on Monday, with WTI Crude slipping to an eyelash above $69 per barrel, after OPEC+ decided on Sunday it would start returning 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.

　　The prospect of monthly increments in oil supply from the OPEC+ alliance comes just as COVID infections are rising in many countries because of the faster-spreading Delta variant. Concerns over potential hiccups in global oil demand recovery amid rising supply from OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners dragged oil prices down on Monday.

　　As of 8:22 a.m. EDT, WTI Crude prices were trading down by 3.9 percent at $69.01 and Brent Crude was down 3.52 percent at $71.00.

　　The fact that OPEC+ reached a deal on production and baseline production levels removed a major uncertainty from the market, some part of which was fearing a breakup in the alliance.

　　The deal is constructive for the market, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC, noting that “This agreement should give market participants comfort that the group is not headed for a messy breakup and will not be opening up the production floodgates anytime soon.”

　　Despite the fact that OPEC+ will be adding more and more supply in each of the coming months, many analysts continue to believe that the market will remain relatively tight because demand continues to grow.

　　ING, for example, kept its oil price forecast of $75 per barrel for Brent Crude over the third quarter this year because the supply additions from OPEC+ are in line with the bank’s earlier projections.

　　“Healthy demand growth combined with moderate supply increases from OPEC+ will likely remain supportive for the oil market in short term at least,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said early on Monday.

　　Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on oil and even sees the OPEC+ deal as having a $2 per barrel upside to its $80 a barrel Brent outlook for this summer. ?

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