據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)2月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，周三美國(guó)天然氣期貨躍升近10%，至近兩周高點(diǎn)，因市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)3月初的天氣將比此前預(yù)期冷得多，供暖需求也將高于預(yù)期。

貿(mào)易商指出，盡管美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量在過(guò)去一個(gè)月因寒冷天氣減少而緩慢回升，而且由于俄羅斯和烏克蘭的緊張局勢(shì)似乎有所緩和，歐洲天然氣期貨價(jià)格下跌了6%，但美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格還是上漲了。

在過(guò)去一個(gè)多月里，美國(guó)一直與其他國(guó)家合作，以確保主要來(lái)自液化天然氣的天然氣供應(yīng)將繼續(xù)流向歐洲，以防俄羅斯切斷對(duì)歐洲其他地區(qū)的出口。

美國(guó)和歐洲表示，可能會(huì)促使俄羅斯削減對(duì)歐洲的部分天然氣出口。 俄羅斯提供了歐洲約 30%-40% 的天然氣供應(yīng)，2021年總計(jì)約163億立方英尺/天。

然而，自今年年初以來(lái)，美國(guó)天然氣市場(chǎng)更多地關(guān)注于美國(guó)天氣和國(guó)內(nèi)供需的變化，而不是世界大事。2022年迄今為止，只有三分之一的時(shí)間美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格追隨歐洲價(jià)格，而去年第四季度為三分之二。

在經(jīng)歷了幾周近乎創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的波動(dòng)后，3月交付的美國(guó)即月天然氣期貨<NGc1>價(jià)格上漲41.1美分，漲幅9.5%，收于每百萬(wàn)英國(guó)熱單位4.717美元，為2月3日以來(lái)的最高收盤(pán)價(jià)。

根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv表示，由于寒冷天氣導(dǎo)致幾個(gè)產(chǎn)油區(qū)的油氣井凍結(jié)，美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的平均天然氣產(chǎn)量從去年12月創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的973億立方英尺/天下降至1月的940億立方英尺/天和2月迄今的927億立方英尺/天。

但從日產(chǎn)量來(lái)看，自2月4日冬季風(fēng)暴期間天然氣產(chǎn)量降至863億立方英尺/天以來(lái)，幾乎每天都在增加，2月11日達(dá)到952億立方英尺/天的高點(diǎn)，這是自1月1日以來(lái)的最高水平。然而，周三的產(chǎn)量連續(xù)第二天下滑，降至最初一周低點(diǎn)943億立方英尺/天。

盡管氣象學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)的天氣比之前預(yù)期的要冷，但他們?nèi)匀活A(yù)測(cè)下周的氣溫將高于本周。

據(jù)Refinitiv預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)日均天然氣需求(包括出口)將從本周的1229億立方英尺降至下周的1212億立方英尺。下周的預(yù)測(cè)高于Refinitiv周二的預(yù)測(cè)。

隨著全球風(fēng)投LNG（Venture Global LNG）在路易斯安那州Calcasieu Pass出口工廠的液化生產(chǎn)線投入使用，2月份到目前為止，流向美國(guó)液化天然氣出口工廠的天然氣流量日均達(dá)到127億立方英尺，這超過(guò)1月份124億立方英尺的月度記錄。

一艘油輪于2月7日抵達(dá)Calcasieu，可能會(huì)在本周帶著工廠的第一批貨物離開(kāi)。

貿(mào)易商表示，只要全球天然氣價(jià)格繼續(xù)遠(yuǎn)高于美國(guó)期貨，美國(guó)液化天然氣需求將保持強(qiáng)勁，因?yàn)槭澜绺鞯氐墓檬聵I(yè)公司都在爭(zhēng)搶貨物，以滿足亞洲激增的需求，并補(bǔ)充歐洲的低庫(kù)存。

郝芬 譯自 管道 & 天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下：

US Natural Gas Jumps Nearly 10% on Colder Forecasts

U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 10% to a near two-week high on Wednesday on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand through early March than previously expected.

Traders noted that prices rose despite the slow return of U.S. production from cold weather-related reductions over the past month, and a 6% drop in European gas futures due to what looks like an easing of Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Over the past month or so, the United States has worked with other nations to ensure that gas supplies, mostly from LNG, would keep flowing to Europe in case Russia cuts off exports to the rest of the continent.

The United States and Europe have said they would likely prompting Russia to cut some gas exports to Europe. Russia provides around 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 Bcf/d in 2021.

Since the start of the year, however, the U.S. gas market has focused more on changes in U.S. weather, domestic supply and demand than world events. So far in 2022, U.S. gas followed European prices only about a third of the time versus two-thirds in the fourth quarter.

After weeks of near record volatility, U.S. front-month gas futures <NGc1> for March delivery rose 41.1 cents, or 9.5%, to settle at $4.717 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Feb. 3.

Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 Bcf/d in December to 94.0 Bcf/d in January and 92.7 Bcf/d so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions.

But on a daily basis, gas production has gained almost every day since dropping to 86.3 Bcf/d during a Feb. 4 winter storm, reaching a high of 95.2 Bcf/d on Feb. 11, the most since Jan. 1. Output on Wednesday, however, was on track to slip for a second day in a row to a preliminary one-week low of 94.3 Bcf/d.

Even though meteorologists forecast colder weather than previously expected, they still predicted higher temperatures next week than this week.

Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 122.9 Bcf/d this week to 121.2 Bcf/d next week. Next week's forecast was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday.

Gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.7 Bcf/d so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 Bcf/d, as liquefaction trains at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass export plant in Louisiana enter service.

A tanker arrived at Calcasieu on Feb. 7 and will likely leave with the plant's first cargo this week.

Traders said demand for U.S. LNG would remain strong so long as global gas prices keep trading well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe.