盡管美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備發(fā)布了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的數(shù)據(jù)，但美國(guó)的石油庫(kù)存仍徘徊在多年來的低點(diǎn)附近  

與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期密切相關(guān)的餾分燃料油庫(kù)存處于2000年以來的最低水平  

經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩可能有助于重新平衡極低水平的餾分油庫(kù)存

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月31日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備發(fā)布了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的數(shù)據(jù)，有報(bào)告稱過去幾周汽油需求因高油價(jià)而減弱，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，但今年這個(gè)時(shí)候美國(guó)石油庫(kù)存仍處于多年來的低點(diǎn)。過去幾個(gè)月，商業(yè)原油和成品油庫(kù)存未能重建，且需求低水平表明汽油和柴油市場(chǎng)在短期內(nèi)將持續(xù)吃緊，這可能會(huì)支撐油價(jià)。

不過，在美國(guó)汽油平均價(jià)格在6月中旬觸及每加侖5美元的紀(jì)錄高位以后，最近幾周美國(guó)汽油需求下降成為市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)。再加上對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂，WTI原油價(jià)格承壓。美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)原油指數(shù)本周比國(guó)際布倫特原油指數(shù)的折扣幅度達(dá)到3年多來最大。

汽油需求下降令WTI承壓，而布倫特原油價(jià)格則反映出全球現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)緊張，這是受西方制裁以及歐盟將在今年年底前實(shí)施的石油禁令的推動(dòng)。WTI對(duì)布倫特原油的3年來最大折扣推動(dòng)了美國(guó)原油出口的激增，在截至7月22日的報(bào)告周，美國(guó)原油日出口量創(chuàng)下450萬(wàn)桶的歷史新高。 

不過，最近的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，汽油需求的下降并不像最初看起來那么明顯，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)過去4周平均汽油需求仍呈上升趨勢(shì)。 

盡管有跡象顯示W(wǎng)TI原油價(jià)格面臨下行壓力，但美國(guó)多年來的石油庫(kù)存（有些產(chǎn)品是幾十年來最低的）是油價(jià)的一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁看漲因素，不過這并不意味著它可能超過市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂。

EIA數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至7月22日的最新報(bào)告周，美國(guó)商業(yè)原油庫(kù)存減少450萬(wàn)桶。美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存降至4.221億桶，比今年同期的平均水平低約6%。汽油方面，上周庫(kù)存減少330萬(wàn)桶，比5年同期平均水平低大約4%。包括柴油在內(nèi)的餾分油是美國(guó)今年最吃緊的市場(chǎng)，目前的庫(kù)存水平比5年季節(jié)性平均水平低23%。

根據(jù)路透社市場(chǎng)分析師約翰·肯普匯編的數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期關(guān)系最為密切的餾分燃料油庫(kù)存處于2000年以來的最低水平。到目前為止，第三季度的餾分油庫(kù)存增加不到100萬(wàn)桶，這是一個(gè)異常低的庫(kù)存增加速度。肯普指出，這是過去40年里最少的餾分油庫(kù)存之一。 

肯普認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩可能有助于重新平衡這些極低水平的餾分油庫(kù)存，但這種重新平衡可能需要更深入、更持久的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷。  

事實(shí)上，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩。美國(guó)商務(wù)部7月28日公布的預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù)顯示，繼第一季度下降1.6%之后，美國(guó)第二季度GDP下降0.9%。理論上，GDP數(shù)據(jù)符合經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的一個(gè)常見定義——連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度的GDP收縮。

但政策制定者堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為，此次“技術(shù)性”衰退并非大范圍衰退，因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)中的許多領(lǐng)域仍在走強(qiáng)，尤其是勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)，而推高通脹的外部條件是獨(dú)一無(wú)二的。 

美國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)上周末在美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司（NBC）的《會(huì)見媒體》節(jié)目上說：“當(dāng)一個(gè)月創(chuàng)造近40萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)崗位時(shí)，這還不算衰退。”

美國(guó)政策制定者承認(rèn)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，但美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)并沒有出現(xiàn)全面衰退的跡象。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席在本周美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布再次加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)后的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說：“我認(rèn)為美國(guó)目前沒有陷入衰退，原因是有太多的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域表現(xiàn)得太好了。”

他說：“去年美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)非常高，百分之五點(diǎn)五。我們本來預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)放緩。現(xiàn)在也有更多的放緩。”鮑威爾重申了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的“軟著陸”目標(biāo)。  

他補(bǔ)充說：“如果你想想經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退到底是什么，那就是很多行業(yè)普遍衰退，持續(xù)幾個(gè)月以上的衰退，其中有很多具體的測(cè)試。而現(xiàn)在的情況似乎并非如此。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng) 

原文如下：

Demand Destruction Could Help America Refill Its Oil Inventories

·     America’s oil inventories are hovering around multi-year lows despite releases from the SPR.

·     Distillate fuel oil inventories, which are most closely related to the economic cycle, are at the lowest for the time of year since 2000.

·     An economic slowdown could help rebalance very low levels of distillate stocks.

·     U.S. petroleum inventories are still sitting at multi-year lows for this time of the year despite record releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), reports of weakening gasoline demand over the past weeks because of high prices, and a slowing economy.  Commercial crude and product stockpiles have failed to rebuild over the last few months, and the low levels point to continued tight markets for gasoline and diesel in the short term, potentially supportive of oil prices.  

·     Yet, emphasis has been placed on a fall in U.S. gasoline demand in recent weeks after the national average price hit a record $5 a gallon in the middle of June. This, combined with fears of a recession, have weighed on WTI Crude prices. The U.S. benchmark hit this week its widest discount in over three years compared to the international Brent Crude benchmark. 

·     This faltering demand for gasoline has weighed on WTI, while Brent prices reflect tight global physical supplies, buoyed and Western sanctions, as well as the European Union ban oil set to be implemented before the end of this year. The biggest discount of WTI to Brent in three years is driving a surge in U.S. crude oil exports, which hit a record high of 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the reporting week to July 22. 

The most recent data, however, shows that gasoline demand destruction isn't as clear-cut as it initially looked, with the four-week average gasoline demand still trending upward, according to EIA data.

Despite signs of downward price pressures on WTI Crude, the lowest U.S. petroleum inventories in years—for some products in decades—are one strong bullish factor for oil prices, although it's not a given that it could outweigh market fears of recession. 

In the latest reporting week to July 22, commercial crude oil inventories declined by 4.5 million barrels, the EIA data showed. At 422.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the average for this time of the year. In gasoline, inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of the year. Distillates, which include diesel, have been the tightest market this year, with current stockpile levels 23% below the seasonal five-year average. 

Distillate fuel oil inventories, which are most closely related to the economic cycle, are at the lowest for the time of year since 2000, according to data compiled by Reuters market analyst John Kemp. So far in the third quarter, distillate stockpiles have risen by less than 1 million barrels, an unusually low pace of inventory builds. This is one of the tiniest distillate inventory builds of the past four decades, Kemp notes. 

An economic slowdown could help rebalance those very low levels of distillate stocks, but the rebalance could need a deeper and longer downturn in activity, Kemp argues. 

Indeed, the U.S. economy is slowing down. The advance estimate from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed on Thursday that GDP contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter, following a 1.6% decline in Q1. In theory, the GDP data met one common definition of a recession—two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

But policymakers insist the 'technical' recession is not a broad-based recession because many areas in the economy are still going strong, especially the labor market, and external conditions pushing inflation higher are unique. 

"When you're creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession," U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on NBC's Meet the Press last weekend, a few days before the GDP data was released. 

Policymakers admit there is a slowdown, but the U.S. economy doesn't present broad-based signs of a recession. 

"I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession. And the reason is there are just too many areas of the economy that are performing too well," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference this week after the Fed announced another 75-basis-point hike in key interest rates. 

"Really the growth was extraordinarily high last year, 5 and a half percent. We would have expected growth to slow. There's also more slowing going on now," Powell said, reiterating the Fed's goal of a "soft landing."

"If you think about what a recession really is, it's a broad-based decline across many industries that sustain for more than a couple of months and there are a bunch of specific tests in it. And this just doesn't seem like that," the Fed Chair added.