據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年9月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，說(shuō)“美國(guó)天然氣市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了旋風(fēng)式的一年”是一種輕描淡寫的說(shuō)法，但隨著冬季的到來(lái)，美國(guó)天然氣市場(chǎng)大起大落的走勢(shì)仍遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。

這是挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）分析師阿德·艾倫在周二發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中所述，他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，預(yù)計(jì)高氣價(jià)將持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。

艾倫在報(bào)告中表示：“市場(chǎng)參與者被迫調(diào)整策略，以應(yīng)對(duì)不斷上升的需求、地緣政治復(fù)雜性和供應(yīng)瓶頸。”

艾倫補(bǔ)充道，美國(guó)向歐洲出口液化天然氣（LNG）的重要性正在進(jìn)一步增加，這是目前困擾歐洲天然氣短缺的唯一直接解決方案之一。 然而，由于干氣供應(yīng)未能達(dá)到預(yù)期，今年上半年天然氣供應(yīng)出現(xiàn)了一些嚴(yán)重的阻力。

艾倫繼續(xù)說(shuō)：“供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸和資本約束的運(yùn)營(yíng)商一直是供應(yīng)顯著增長(zhǎng)的主要抑制因素，但干氣供應(yīng)正在出現(xiàn)上升?！?/p>

艾倫強(qiáng)調(diào)，即使增加天然氣產(chǎn)量也不太可能抑制天然氣價(jià)格，因?yàn)殂@井公司難以滿足日益飆升的國(guó)內(nèi)外需求。

艾倫在報(bào)告中稱：“此外，天然氣庫(kù)存水平遠(yuǎn)低于5年平均水平，盡管冬季即將來(lái)臨，但庫(kù)存水平幾乎沒(méi)有回升的跡象。” 

“市場(chǎng)參與者正試圖確定，這種上漲是對(duì)價(jià)格的短期反應(yīng)還是由于下半年支出增加而導(dǎo)致的結(jié)構(gòu)性增長(zhǎng)。我們的分析指向后者，因?yàn)槲覀冾A(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)兩年的中期增長(zhǎng)率為8.25%。”艾倫在報(bào)告中如是說(shuō)。

這名Rystad的資深分析師還在報(bào)告中指出，“悶熱”的夏季將電力消耗推至前所未有的水平，并強(qiáng)調(diào)美國(guó)自由港LNG終端爆炸“立即改變了市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)，使總需求每天減少20億立方英尺”。 

“亨利中心的天然氣價(jià)格在10美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位的懸崖上是短暫的，并立即下跌?！卑瑐愓f(shuō)。  

艾倫補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“然而，隨著創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的溫度持續(xù)存在，這種說(shuō)法意味著創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的燃?xì)獍l(fā)電量可能會(huì)為整體需求圖景帶來(lái)一些提振。” 

艾倫在報(bào)告中警告稱，冬季天然氣短缺的幽靈正籠罩著市場(chǎng)，并補(bǔ)充稱，定價(jià)結(jié)果的巨大差異正變得越來(lái)越大。

艾倫說(shuō)：“高氣價(jià)預(yù)計(jì)還會(huì)持續(xù)一段時(shí)間，季末熱帶風(fēng)暴或颶風(fēng)的威脅以及嚴(yán)冬的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能會(huì)引發(fā)更高的氣價(jià)?！?/p>

在撰寫本文時(shí)，亨利中心天然氣的交易價(jià)格為每百萬(wàn)英熱單位7.90美元。到目前為止，今年這種大宗商品的最高收盤價(jià)為8月22日的9.68美元。到目前為止，其今年最低收盤價(jià)為1月4日的3.71美元。從6月到9月，亨利中心的天然氣價(jià)格上下波動(dòng)猶如坐過(guò)山車，7月一度跌至5.51美元，8月達(dá)到今年最高收盤價(jià)9.68美元。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

USA Gas Market Rollercoaster Ride Far from Over

It’s an understatement to say that U.S. gas markets have had a whirlwind year, but the rollercoaster ride is far from over as winter beckons. 

That’s what Rystad Energy Analyst Ade Allen said in a market note sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, adding that high gas prices are expected to stick around for a while.

“Market participants have been forced to adapt their strategies in response to rising demand, geopolitical complications and supply bottlenecks,” Allen stated in the note.

“The importance of U.S. LNG exports to Europe is increasing further as one of the only immediate solutions to the gas shortage currently gripping Europe. However, the first half of the year presented some significant headwinds as dry gas supply failed to meet expectations,” Allen added.

“Supply chain bottlenecks and capital-disciplined operators have served as the primary inhibitors of significant supply growth, but an uptick in dry gas supply is emerging,” Allen continued.

Even increased production is unlikely to temper prices though as drillers struggle to keep up with soaring domestic and international demand, Allen highlighted.

“Further, storage levels are far below the five-year average and have shown little sign of making up ground despite winter on the horizon,” Allen said in the note.

“Market participants are trying to decide if the gains are a result of short-term responsiveness to price or whether the growth is structural due to increased spending in the second half of the year. Our analysis points to the latter as we expect medium-term growth of 8.25 percent over the next two years,” Allen added.

The Rystad analyst also outlined in the note that a “sweltering” summer pushed power burns to previously unseen levels and highlighted that the Freeport LNG explosion “immediately changed the market dynamics by reducing overall demand by two billion cubic feet per day”.

“Henry Hub prices on the precipice of $10/MMBtu were short-lived and cratered immediately,” Allen said.

“However, as record temperatures lingered, the narrative implied that record gas-for-power generation could create some buoyancy for the overall demand picture,” Allen added.

In the note, Allen warned that the specter of winter is looming over the market and added that the large disparity of pricing outcomes is becoming more divergent.

“High gas prices are expected to stick around for a while, with the threat of a late-season tropical storm or hurricane and the risk of a severe winter potentially triggering an even higher price situation,” Allen said.

At the time of writing, the price of Henry Hub gas is trading at $7.90. The commodity’s highest 2022 close, so far, was seen on August 22 at $9.68. Its lowest 2022 close, so far, was seen on January 4 at $3.71. From June to September, the Henry Hub price has bounced up and down, dropping as low as $5.51 in July before seeing its highest close of the year in August.