據(jù)油氣新聞網(wǎng)9月27日報道，殼牌航空部門負責(zé)人表示，預(yù)計在未來一到兩年內(nèi)，全球航空燃料需求將完全恢復(fù)到疫情前每年3億噸的水平。

殼牌航空總裁Jan Toschka在第38屆亞太石油會議(APPEC)間隙告訴路透社，美國的需求已經(jīng)回到2019年的水平，而歐洲的消費已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到80%以上，并有望在明年全面復(fù)蘇。

他表示，亞洲市場的發(fā)展道路比較坎坷，市場有開放也有關(guān)閉，但我們預(yù)計尤其是亞洲市場明年會復(fù)蘇，但我們可能還需要一年時間才能看到市場的全部潛力。

Toschka稱，市場需要從更遠的煉油廠購買……隨著這種新的貿(mào)易路線的出現(xiàn)，航運、鐵路和各種分銷都面臨著更大的壓力。

可持續(xù)航空燃料

Toschka表示，殼牌正在考慮在美國再建兩家可持續(xù)航空燃料(SAF)工廠，其目標是到2030年可再生燃料占其全球航空燃料銷量的10%。

其中一個項目將使用傳統(tǒng)的加氫酯和脂肪酸(HEFA)技術(shù)，而殼牌希望在第二個項目中利用更新的技術(shù)。

他稱，生產(chǎn)基于HEFA的產(chǎn)品存在限制……我們需要研究纖維素材料，酒精噴氣，限制較少的原料。殼牌公司還可能在2022年底或2023年初對其新加坡SAF工廠作出最終投資決定，預(yù)計該工廠將于2026年投產(chǎn)，屆時該國將生產(chǎn)多達50萬噸SAF。與此同時，其鹿特丹生物燃料工廠預(yù)計將于2024年或2025年投產(chǎn)。并補充道，到2030年，我們每年將擁有超過200萬噸的SAF。隨著航空公司和科技公司、會計師事務(wù)所和銀行等其他行業(yè)努力減少碳足跡，SAF正在逐漸增長，但在整個航空燃料市場中仍占相對較小的比例。

占全球碳排放量的3%的航空，是最難實現(xiàn)脫碳的交通形式之一。

Toschka表示，要到2050年實現(xiàn)凈零目標，該行業(yè)將不得不每年花費500億美元并建造5000座SAF工廠。

郝芬 譯自 油氣新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Shell sees global aviation fuel demand return to pre-pandemic levels

Global aviation fuel demand is expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels of 300 million tonnes per year in the next one to two years, the head of aviation at Shell said.

Demand in the United States is back at 2019 levels while Europe's consumption has recovered to more than 80 per cent and is on track for full recovery in the next year, Shell Aviation President Jan Toschka told Reuters on the sidelines of the 38th Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC).

"Asia has been a bit more of a bumpy road with markets opening up and closing down but mostly we expect Asia in particular, in the next year, to come back, but it might take another year before we see the full potential of the market," he said.

"The market needs to buy from refineries further away ... shipping and rail and all kinds of distribution are under more stress now with this new kind of routing (of trade)," Toschka said.

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL

Shell is considering building two more sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plants in the United States, as it aims for renewable fuel to account for 10 per cent of its global jet sales by 2030, Toschka said.

One of the projects would utilise the traditional hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) technology while Shell hopes to tap on newer technology for the second.

"There are limits to producing products based on HEFA ... we need to look into cellulosic material, alcohol to jet, less restricted feedstocks," he said.

Shell may also make a final investment decision for its Singapore SAF plant by end 2022 or early 2023, which is expected to come on stream in 2026 with up to half a million tonnes of SAF produced in the city state, he said.

Meanwhile, its Rotterdam biofuels plant is expected to start production in 2024 or 2025, Toschka said.

"We will be having more than 2 million tonnes of SAF annually by 2030," he added.

SAF from airlines and other sectors such as tech companies, accounting firms and banks, is gradually growing as companies strive to reduce their carbon footprint, but it's still at a relatively small percentage of the total aviation fuel market, he added.

Aviation, accounting for 3 per cent of the world's carbon emissions, is one of the most difficult forms of transportation to decarbonise.

To meet net zero goals by 2050, the industry would have to spend $50 billion a year and build 5,000 SAF plants, Toschka said.