據(jù)阿聯(lián)酋《Khaleej時報》11月20日報道，石油市場分析師表示，盡管歐佩克+減產(chǎn)和歐盟對原油禁運(yùn)導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)不利影響，但油價可能很快再次回到每桶100美元以上，遠(yuǎn)早于兩個月前分析師的預(yù)測。

美國能源信息署（EIA）11月的短期能源展望顯示，布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格今年平均每桶102.13美元，明年平均每桶95.33美元。

10月，EIA預(yù)計2022年布倫特現(xiàn)貨平均價格將達(dá)到每桶102.09美元，2023年為每桶94.58美元，同時略微上調(diào)了2022年和2023年布倫特油價預(yù)測。

周五，由于擔(dān)心需求減弱和美國利率進(jìn)一步上調(diào)，油價下跌約2%。布倫特原油收于每桶87.62美元，下跌2.16美元，跌幅為2.4%，而美國西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油收于每桶80.08美元，下跌1.56美元，跌幅1.9%。

但分析師表示，看漲因素可能在近期占據(jù)上風(fēng)，使油價再次升至三位數(shù)。

歐佩克+決定將截至11月的總產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)削減200萬桶/日，這確實(shí)穩(wěn)定了石油市場，正如該組織所宣稱的目標(biāo)。布倫特原油價格穩(wěn)定在90美元以上。大宗商品分析師表示，盡管為對抗通脹而大幅升息，但這方面的風(fēng)險更多的是上行而非下行。

本周早些時候，盛寶銀行（Saxo Bank）大宗商品策略主管奧勒·漢森（Ole Hansen）在海灣情報（Gulf Intelligence）網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會上表示：“油價上漲10美元比下跌10美元更為脆弱。”

談到油價上漲10美元，風(fēng)險仍在上升。

沙特阿拉伯電視臺（Al Arabiya TV）報道稱，歐佩克秘書長海瑟姆·加伊斯（Haitham Al Ghais）表示，該組織準(zhǔn)備為石油市場的利益進(jìn)行干預(yù)。

10月初，歐佩克+宣布計劃在2022年11月將石油產(chǎn)量從2022年8月的要求產(chǎn)量水平減少200萬桶。如果該計劃得以實(shí)施，歐佩克10國集團(tuán)成員國的產(chǎn)量應(yīng)達(dá)到2540萬桶/日，而非歐佩克國家的產(chǎn)量應(yīng)為1640萬桶。這實(shí)際上將導(dǎo)致歐佩克+的平均產(chǎn)量達(dá)到4190萬桶/日。

EIA警告稱，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的惡化可能會限制石油需求的增長，“可能導(dǎo)致油價最終低于我們的預(yù)測”。該組織還指出，高于預(yù)測的油價可能是由于歐盟即將禁止從海運(yùn)進(jìn)口原油和石油產(chǎn)品導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)中斷。

在其最新月度報告中，歐佩克將2022年石油需求增長預(yù)測下調(diào)了10萬桶/日，至255萬桶/天。由于經(jīng)合組織國家的需求好于預(yù)期，2022年第二季度的需求量略高于預(yù)期，目前預(yù)計2022年石油需求量將達(dá)到9960萬桶/日，而2022年的第三季度和2022年第一季度的需求則因持續(xù)的地緣政治不確定性以及經(jīng)合組織歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的減弱而被下調(diào)。

壽琳玲 編譯自 阿聯(lián)酋《Khaleej時報》

原文如下：

Oil prices could soon break $100

Oil prices could soon return to above $100 per barrel again, much earlier than analysts predicted two months ago, despite global economic headwinds as Opec+ output cuts and EU embargo of crude exports tightens overall supply, oil market analysts said.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now sees the Brent crude oil spot price averaging $102.13 per barrel this year and $95.33 per barrel next year, according to its November short-term energy outlook.

In October, the EIA projected that the Brent spot average would come in at $102.09 per barrel in 2022 and $94.58 per barrel in 2023, said the EIA while slightly raising its Brent oil price forecast for both 2022 and 2023.

On Friday, oil prices dropped by about two per cent due to concern about weakened demand and further hike in US interest rates. Brent crude settled at $87.62 a barrel, falling $2.16 or 2.4 per cent, while US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $80.08 a barrel, losing $1.56 or 1.9 per cent.

But the bullish factors could take the upper hand in the near term, sending oil prices to triple digits again, analysts say.

The Opec+ decision to cut the headline production target by two million barrels per day as of November did stabilise the oil market, as the group claims its goal is. Brent prices stabilised at above $90. The risks from here are more to the upside than to the downside, despite aggressive interest rate hikes to fight inflation, commodity analysts say.

“The oil markets are more vulnerable for a $10 move higher than lower,” Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on a Gulf Intelligence webinar earlier this week.

Talking about a $10 move in oil prices, the risk is still to the upside, Hansen added, citing the Opec+ cuts, and the EU sanctions on  oil.

Opec secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais has said that the organisation is ready to intervene for the benefit of oil markets, Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV reports, citing Ghais as saying that Opec is aware, cautious and monitoring economic developments worldwide.

In early October, Opec+ announced plans to reduce oil production by two million barrels in November 2022 from the August 2022 required production level. If the plan is implemented; the production of the Opec 10 group members should reach 25.4 m illion bpd while that of non-Opec producers should be 16.4 million bpd. This in effect would lead to the production of Opec+ coming to an average of 41.9 m illion bpd.

The EIA warned that weakening global economic conditions, which it said could limit oil demand growth, “create the potential for oil prices to end up lower than our forecast”. The organisation also noted that higher than forecast oil prices could stem from supply disruptions resulting from the EU’s impending bans on the seaborne import of crude oil and petroleum products.

In its latest monthly report, the Opec lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2022 by 0.1 m illion bpd to a growth of 2.55 million bpd. Oil demand is now expected to reach 99.6 million bpd in 2022 after demand for Q2-2022 was revised slightly higher amid better-thanexpected demand in the OECD countries while Q3-2022 and Q4-2022 demand were revised lower, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and weaker economic activities in OECD Europe.

Opec+ countries in October 2022 reduced oil production by 40,000 bpd and now fall behind the planned production targets by 3.22 million bpd, according to the IEA.

The volume of oil production by the members of the alliance decreased by 30,000bpd compared to September to 38.88 million bpd. At the same time, the target level of production by Opec+ countries for September reached 42.1 million bpd.