自2022年3月8日的高點以來，經通貨膨脹調整后的油價目前已在一年內下滑了40%

加息和對美國經濟可能放緩的擔憂正在拉低油價

盡管擔心利率上升，許多大型石油交易商預計原油價格將在2023年下半年重新爬升至100美元

據油價網3月11日報道，自從去年年底抹去油價漲幅以來，油價一直陷于緊張的區間。

在去年的大部分時間里，對重大石油供應沖擊的擔憂決定了市場情緒和交易者的心理定位。但即使在歐盟禁運以及原油和石油產品的價格上限生效后，油價也沒有飆升。

產能大國正在將其石油出口轉向亞洲，而歐洲正在從中東、亞洲和美國購買更多原油和產品。

然而，這個幾十年來全球石油貿易中最重要的轉變之一，并沒有成為最近幾周石油市場的關鍵驅動力。

關鍵驅動力是經濟。世界上最大的兩個經濟體的通貨膨脹、制造業、就業和商業活動數據，是現在石油期貨市場的主要驅動力。

美聯儲正在密切關注美國的每一個經濟數據點，以衡量是加快還是放慢加息步伐。更強勁的美國經濟數據和仍然很高的通貨膨脹率可能促使美聯儲比最初預期提高更高利率，這也大幅提升未來幾個月出現實質性放緩甚至衰退的可能性。

另一方面，市場——包括石油期貨市場——正在密切關注亞洲的經濟趨勢，市場已經從近三年的封鎖中重新開放，預計今年的經濟增長和石油消費將出現反彈。

這兩股對立的經濟力量目前正將石油市場拉向相反的方向，使價格停留在每桶布倫特80美元至85美元的狹窄范圍。

盛寶銀行本周在周五的美國就業報告前表示：“幾個月來的區間波動，在供需相關消息平衡的情況下，市場可能會密切關注風險偏好的總體水平，這一點目前由FOMC及其對市場數據的密切關注決定。”

路透社的高級市場分析師John Kemp指出，自2022年3月8日的高點以來，油價在一年內已經下滑了40%，這是在地緣政治沖突發生幾周之后。此外，前月合約的價格波動率已降至年化25%以下，而去年3月的波動率為88%。

加息和對美國經濟可能放緩的擔憂正在拉低油價。

OANDA美洲區高級市場分析師Ed Moya周四表示：“增長減速繼續拖累原油價格，但如果對美國經濟硬著陸的擔憂得到緩解，WTI原油可能在每桶80美元以上找到落點。”

同時，對市場經濟和石油需求反彈的預期也限制了下行空間。如果市場在重啟后強勁反彈，考慮到全球庫存低于五年平均水平，而且出現了實物原油市場收緊的跡象，價格可能突破近期的緊張區間。

世界上最大的一些石油實物交易商說，在美國經濟軟著陸的情況下，價格可能很快達到每桶90美元。

托克公司(Trafigura)的石油交易聯席主管Ben Luckock在本周的CERAWeek能源會議上說，由于過去一年石油貿易的重大轉變，該公司預計原油價格將開始上漲。

曹海斌 編譯自 油價網

Will We See A Return Of Triple Digit Oil This Year?

Oil prices, adjusted for inflation, have now slumped by 40% in one year since March 8, 2022, high.

The rate hikes and concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy are pulling oil prices down.

Despite fears of rising interest rates, many large oil traders expect crude prices to creep back toward $100 in the second half of 2023.

Join Our Community

Oil prices have been stuck in a tight range since erasing the gains of the war at the end of last year. 

For most of last year, fears of a major oil supply shock dictated market sentiment and the positioning of traders. But oil prices didn’t surge even after the EU embargoes and the G7 price caps on crude oil and petroleum products came into effect.  

The largger producer is rerouting its oil exports to Asia, while Europe is buying more crude and products from the Middle East, Asia, and the United States. 

Yet, one of the most significant shifts in global oil trade in decades has not been the key driving force in oil markets in recent weeks. 

It’s the economy. Inflation, manufacturing, employment, and business activity data from the United States etc.– the world’s two largest economies – are the primary drivers of the oil futures market now.

The Fed is closely watching every economic data point in the United States to gauge whether to accelerate or slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Stronger U.S. economic data and still high inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates more than initially expected, raising the odds of a material slowdown and even recession in the coming months.  

On the other hand, the markets – including the oil futures market – are closely watching the economic trends in Asia, which has reopened from almost three years of zero-Covid lockdowns and is expected to see a rebound in economic growth and oil consumption this year.  

These two opposing economic forces are currently pulling the oil market in opposite directions, leaving prices stuck in a narrow $80-$85 range per barrel Brent. 

“Rangebound for months and in no hurry to change that amid a balanced flow of supply and demand related news, the market is likely to pay close attention to the general level of risk appetite which is currently being dictated by the FOMC and its close attention to incoming data,” Saxo Bank said this week just before Friday’s U.S. jobs report.  

Oil prices, adjusted for inflation, have now slumped by 40% in one year since March 8, 2022, high, weeks after the war, Reuters’ senior market analyst John Kemp notes. Moreover, the price volatility in the front-month contract has dipped to an annualized rate of less than 25%, compared to 88% in March last year. 

The rate hikes and concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy are pulling oil prices down. 

“Decelerating growth continues to weigh on crude prices but if fears of a hard landing for the US economy are alleviated, WTI crude could find a home above the $80 a barrel,” Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA, said on Thursday. 

At the same time, expectations of a economic and oil demand rebound are limiting the downside. If the market rebounds strongly after the reopening, prices could break above the recent tight range, considering that global inventories are below the five-year average and signs are emerging of a tighter physical crude market. 

In a soft landing for the U.S. economy, prices could soon hit $90 per barrel, some of the world’s biggest physical traders of oil say. 

Trafigura expects prices to start rising due to the major shifts in oil trade over the past year, its co-head of oil trading Ben Luckock said at the CERAWeek energy conference this week.