周一早上油價(jià)下跌，WTI價(jià)格跌破70美元，布倫特原油價(jià)格跌破74美元

即將召開的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議讓市場(chǎng)分析人士擔(dān)心可能再次加息

高盛下調(diào)了對(duì)今年剩余時(shí)間原油價(jià)格的預(yù)期，顯示出看跌情緒日益增強(qiáng)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)6月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，周一早盤，油價(jià)下跌，WTI價(jià)格跌破70美元，布倫特原油跌破74美元。

本周開始原油價(jià)格進(jìn)一步下跌，WTI在亞洲午盤交易中跌破每桶70美元。

盡管有跡象表明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能暫停加息，但由于市場(chǎng)交易員對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布再次加息的可能性持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，這兩個(gè)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)在今天早些時(shí)候的亞洲交易中都下跌了1%以上。

路透社在今天早些時(shí)候的一份報(bào)告中指出，大多數(shù)投資銀行預(yù)計(jì)跌勢(shì)會(huì)暫停。不過，該報(bào)告援引摩根士丹利一位分析師的話說(shuō)，“我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸，但如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不放緩，政策可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步收緊，而且銀行體系的資金壓力使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傾向于下行”。

美國(guó)銀行全球研究部的Francisco Blanch在一份報(bào)告中稱，油價(jià)陷入兩股對(duì)立力量的沖突之中，一股是指向貨幣緊縮的看跌資產(chǎn)配置者，另一股是預(yù)計(jì)2023年下半年庫(kù)存下降的看漲石油投機(jī)者。

與此同時(shí)，高盛下調(diào)了對(duì)今年剩余時(shí)間原油價(jià)格的預(yù)期。據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道，該銀行目前預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油價(jià)格將在2023年底低于每桶90美元，理由是預(yù)期需求疲軟。

該銀行表示，預(yù)計(jì)有些國(guó)家明年的供應(yīng)量也將增加，日產(chǎn)量將增加80萬(wàn)桶。假如沙特決定將減產(chǎn)延長(zhǎng)到明年，這將抵消沙特在上次歐佩克+會(huì)議上宣布的額外減產(chǎn)。

雖然減產(chǎn)規(guī)模為100萬(wàn)桶/日，但在沙特減產(chǎn)的同時(shí)，阿聯(lián)酋獲準(zhǔn)將產(chǎn)量提高至多20萬(wàn)桶/日。在周末舉行的國(guó)際峰會(huì)上，能源大臣薩勒曼表示，歐佩克+產(chǎn)量的最新調(diào)整是為了解決石油市場(chǎng)的“不確定性和不穩(wěn)定情緒”。

壽琳玲 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Prices Under Pressure Ahead Of Fed Meeting

Oil prices were trading lower early on Monday morning, with WTI falling below $70 and Brent dropping below $74.

The upcoming meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve has analysts on edge about another potential interest rate hike.

In a sign of growing bearish sentiment, Goldman Sachs revised down its price outlook for crude oil for the rest of the year.

Crude oil prices began this week with by falling further, with West Texas Intermediate slipping below $70 in pre-noon trade in Asia.

Both benchmarks shed more than 1% in Asian trade earlier today as traders took a cautious approach to the possibility of the Federal Reserve announcing yet another rate hike, even though there were signals it may pause the hikes.

Most investment banks appear to expect a pause, Reuters noted in a report earlier today.  The report quoted, however, a Morgan Stanley analyst as saying that "We maintain our call for a soft landing in the U.S., but policy could tighten further if growth does not slow, and funding pressures in the banking system keep risks skewed to the downside."

"Oil prices are caught in a clash between two opposing forces, bearish asset allocators who point to monetary contraction and bullish oil speculators expecting lower inventories in 2H23," Francisco Blanch from Bank of America Global Research said in a note quoted by Reuters.

Goldman Sachs meanwhile revised down its price outlook for crude oil for the rest of the year. The bank now expects Brent crude to end 2023 at less than $90 per barrel, the Financial Times reported, citing expectations of weaker demand.

The bank cited expectations of higher supply from some certain countries for next year as well, with additional production of 800,000 bpd. That would offset the additional cuts Saudi Arabia announced at the last OPEC+ meeting, should the kingdom decide to extend these into next year.

The size of the cuts was 1 million bpd but while Saudi cuts, the UAE was given the green light to boost its output by up to 200,000 bpd. At an summit during the weekend, energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said the latest adjustments in OPEC+ production were an attempt to address "uncertainities and sentiment" in the oil market.