???? 據今日油價網2月22日報道，卡塔爾石油公司最近創下有史以來最大的LNG出口項目的新紀錄。到2026年，該國將超越澳大利亞，再次成為全球最大的液化天然氣供應國。由于疫情導致經濟不確定，該合同的簽訂被推遲了一年，隨著大規模擴張，市場可能會供過于求，而且正在等待其投資決定的其他項目的可行性也將受到威脅。
????多年來，卡塔爾石油公司一直是全球液化天然氣行業的實際領導者。實行自我禁令旨在通過防止供過于求來確保長期的競爭力。目前，卡塔爾的年產量為7700萬噸（mtpa）。通過第一階段的擴建，到 2026年，該國的產能將增至1.1億噸。到2026年，在第二階段工程完成后，產能將上升到1.26億噸/年。
????卡塔爾決定解除禁令是澳大利亞和美國競爭加劇的直接結果。此外，俄羅斯也制定了重大計劃，加入了這場競爭。增加的天然氣供應犧牲了卡塔爾石油公司的市場份額。據伍德麥肯齊公司研究總監賈爾斯·法勒（Giles Farrer）說，“卡塔爾正在追求市場份額。這項最終投資決定可能會增加其他預FID液化天然氣供應商的壓力，他們可能會發現卡塔爾在新市場站穩了腳跟。”
????預計到2035年，全球需求將從2018年的3.15億噸增加到5.6億噸至6億噸。預計到2035年，新產能將增加1億噸至1.4億噸。目前，正在等待最終投資決定的項目數量達到空前的100個，年產量為1.1億噸。麥肯錫表示，這些項目需要達到每百萬英熱單位(MMBTU) 7美元的盈虧平衡價格才能保持競爭力。
????在這方面，與競爭對手相比，卡塔爾的液化天然氣行業由于生產成本低而具有強大的優勢。世界上最大的天然氣田——南帕爾斯/北穹頂的廉價原料氣，極大地提高了卡塔爾石油的競爭力，盡管中東地區酷熱難耐，然而，俄羅斯的北極氣候使得液化成本保持在較低水平成為可能，加上廉價的原料氣，Novatek的設施也極具競爭力。
????這意味著，在目前預期的需求增長下，許多設想中的項目將無法完成。然而，有理由相信需求的增長可能超過目前的預期。首先，世界各地區可再生能源的增長增加了平衡電網的靈活性需求。目前，天然氣是一個很好的競爭者，由于其廣泛的可用性和相對較低的二氧化碳排放。
????其次，碳排放上限降低了煤炭的長期競爭力，有利于減少大約50%二氧化碳排放量的天然氣。中國是世界上最大的溫室氣體排放國，幾周前剛剛啟動了碳交易市場。
????最后，隨著工業化進程的加快，發展中國家正面臨著一場環境危機。因此，有理由預計，對清潔氣體的需求可以抵消更多的污染燃料，如煤炭，這在許多國家的能源結構中占主導地位。????然而，目前仍不清楚需求將以多快的速度增長。由于沒有一個專門從事與歐佩克（OPEC）相當的天然氣生產的組織，也沒有一個與沙特阿拉伯相當的搖擺不定的生產商，使得液化天然氣市場極不穩定。此外，高昂的前期成本和較長的開發時間使投資具有風險。當一個項目完成時，市場可能已經發生了變化。
????因此，預計這100個預FID項目中的許多項目在未來十年無法達到終點線。
????壽琳玲 編譯自 今日油價網
????原文如下:
????Qatar's LNG Megaprojects Are Making Markets Increasingly Competitive
????Qatar Petroleum’s recently set a new record for the largest LNG export project ever. By 2026, the country will once again become the world's largest supplier of liquefied natural gas by overtaking Australia. The signing of the contract was delayed for a year due to economic uncertainty as a direct consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic. With the mega-expansion, the market could be oversupplied for years and the feasibility of other projects that are awaiting their investment decision could be in jeopardy.
????For years Qatar Petroleum was the de-facto leader of the global LNG industry. The self-imposed moratorium was intended to ensure competitiveness in the long-term by preventing oversupply. Currently, Qatar produces 77 million tons per annum (mtpa). With the first phase expansion, the country will increase its capacity to 110 mtpa by 2026. By 2026 this should rise to 126 mtpa after completion of the second phase.
????Qatar’s decision to lift the moratorium is a direct consequence of increased competition by primarily Australia and the U.S. Also, Russia has entered the fray with major plans of its own. The added supply went at the expense of Qatar Petroleum which was losing market share. According to Giles Farrer, research director at Wood Mackenzie, “Qatar is pursuing market share. This FID (final investment decision) is likely to increase pressure on other pre-FID LNG suppliers, who may find Qatar secured a foothold in new markets.”
????Global demand is expected to increase to between 560 mtpa and 600 mtpa by 2035 up from 315 mtpa in 2018. The expectation is that an additional 100 mtpa to 140 mtpa of new capacity will be required until 2035. Currently, an unprecedented amount of 100 projects with a production capacity of 1,100 mtpa are awaiting FID. According to McKinsey, these projects require a break-even price of $7 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) to maintain competitiveness.
????In this regard, Qatar's LNG industry has a strong advantage due to low production costs compared to the competition. The cheap feed gas from the world's single largest natural gas field, South Pars/North Dome, significantly improves Qatar Petroleum's competitiveness despite the excruciating heat of the Middle East. Russia's arctic climate, however, makes it possible to keep liquefactions costs low. Coupled with cheap feed gas, Novatek's facilities are also highly competitive.
????This means that many of the envisioned projects won’t make it to the finish line under the current expected demand growth. However, there are reasons to believe that demand could increase more than currently expected. First, the growth of renewables in all regions of the world increases the need for flexibility to balance the grid. Currently, natural gas is a good contender due to its wide availability and relatively low CO2 emissions.
????Second, carbon ceilings decrease the long-term competitiveness of coal in favor of gas that emits approximately 50 percent less CO2. China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, saw the launch of its carbon trading market just a few weeks ago.
????Lastly, with rapid industrialization developing countries are facing an environmental crisis . Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that demand for cleaner gas could offset more pollutant fuels such as coal which is dominant in the energy mix of many countries.????However, it remains unclear how fast demand will grow. The absence of an organization dedicated to natural gas comparable to OPEC and a swing-producer comparable to Saudi Arabia makes the LNG market highly volatile. Also, the high upfront costs and long-development time make investments risky. By the time a project is completed, the market could have transformed.
????Therefore, expect many of those 100 pre-FID projects to fail in reaching the finish line in the next decade.
