???? 據(jù)2月18日Investing.com報(bào)道，一年前，新冠肺炎疫情在全球爆發(fā)，至今全球石油需求形勢(shì)仍不明朗。然而，人們現(xiàn)在對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)的某些方面有了更清晰的了解。目前，至關(guān)重要的是，要打破冬季嚴(yán)寒天氣對(duì)德克薩斯地區(qū)石油生產(chǎn)和煉油的影響，關(guān)注歐佩克+在兩周后的會(huì)議上可能會(huì)做的決策，美國(guó)油價(jià)上漲的原因和未來(lái)的石油需求。
????一是，美國(guó)石油供應(yīng)暫時(shí)中斷。
????德克薩斯州的低溫導(dǎo)致本周美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量大幅下降。根據(jù)最新的信息，超過(guò)400萬(wàn)桶/天的石油產(chǎn)能被迫中斷，約占美國(guó)石油總產(chǎn)能的40%。要知道，在正常情況下德州通常的石油產(chǎn)能為460萬(wàn)桶/天。
????相比之下，去年10月，為應(yīng)對(duì)Delta颶風(fēng)，生產(chǎn)商關(guān)閉了墨西哥灣約92%的原油產(chǎn)量，即168萬(wàn)桶/天。近期氣溫應(yīng)該會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn)，產(chǎn)能中斷可能會(huì)持續(xù)到下周，但如果需要進(jìn)行大規(guī)模維修，部分產(chǎn)能可能會(huì)暫停更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。
????由于類似的氣候原因，墨西哥灣地區(qū)的大部分煉油產(chǎn)能也處于停產(chǎn)狀態(tài)。本周初，隨著有消息稱大規(guī)模停產(chǎn)可能將來(lái)臨，油價(jià)上漲，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)油價(jià)格最終突破每桶60美元大關(guān)。
????價(jià)格周三又上漲了1%，因?yàn)楦嚓P(guān)于中斷的信息變得清晰起來(lái)，不過(guò)隨著勘探和煉油作業(yè)的恢復(fù)，價(jià)格漲幅將有所回落。由于煉油廠停產(chǎn)，美國(guó)的汽油價(jià)格也在上漲。例如，周三美國(guó)中西部的汽油價(jià)格每加侖上漲了約0.05美元。
????二是，歐佩克+對(duì)減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的決定。
????歐佩克+成員國(guó)正準(zhǔn)備在兩周內(nèi)舉行會(huì)議，并已經(jīng)開(kāi)始向媒體表明他們的立場(chǎng)。據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道，目前，沙特阿拉伯的石油日產(chǎn)量將額外減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶，這一政策將持續(xù)到3月底。
????沙特阿拉伯將在4月份恢復(fù)其供應(yīng)配額。這是沙特阿拉伯在1月份宣布“額外減產(chǎn)”時(shí)的立場(chǎng)，因此這一信息證實(shí)沙特阿拉伯的政策在過(guò)去幾周沒(méi)有改變。
????另一方面，歐佩克+授權(quán)俄羅斯在2月和3月增加產(chǎn)量，但由于異常寒冷的天氣，俄羅斯一直無(wú)法增加產(chǎn)量。俄羅斯2月份的平均產(chǎn)量為1011.5萬(wàn)桶/天，比1月份減少了約4.4萬(wàn)桶/天。不過(guò)，3月份氣溫升高可能會(huì)增加俄羅斯的石油產(chǎn)量。
????在3月4日的會(huì)議上，歐佩克+將決定是否在4月份繼續(xù)以目前的水平生產(chǎn)石油(沙特阿拉伯額外減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶/天)，或者由于油價(jià)的升高，決定提高產(chǎn)量。俄羅斯表示，它相信石油市場(chǎng)是平衡的，而沙特阿拉伯則對(duì)市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀表達(dá)了更為謹(jǐn)慎和溫和的樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。
????三是，美國(guó)燃油價(jià)格上漲。
????過(guò)去一個(gè)月，每加侖汽油的平均價(jià)格上漲了近0.20美元，令人擔(dān)心美國(guó)的汽油消費(fèi)價(jià)格會(huì)回到此前的高油價(jià)水平。汽油價(jià)格的上漲，可能與該國(guó)早期關(guān)于石油和天然氣租賃及石油運(yùn)輸?shù)男姓钏l(fā)的市場(chǎng)緊張情緒有關(guān)。
????然而，這些行政命令尚未影響到基本面。價(jià)格上漲在很大程度上是由于與這些政策無(wú)關(guān)的基本面因素的收緊。
????四是，石油需求仍不明朗。
????美國(guó)和歐洲的短期石油需求仍然是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。除非允許人們自由走動(dòng)，讓孩子們重返學(xué)校，讓更多的工人重返辦公室，否則汽油消費(fèi)量不可能恢復(fù)到以前的水平。
????許多歐洲國(guó)家已將封鎖令延長(zhǎng)至3月或4月，不過(guò)在一些國(guó)家，立法機(jī)構(gòu)或法院正在推翻行政當(dāng)局的決策。在美國(guó)，情況也不明朗。美國(guó)許多學(xué)區(qū)還沒(méi)有恢復(fù)全日制在校課程，因此許多家長(zhǎng)無(wú)法離開(kāi)家重返工作崗位。人們希望秋季全日制教育將恢復(fù)，但就當(dāng)前情況來(lái)看，這很難實(shí)現(xiàn)。
????長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，歐洲和亞洲以外地區(qū)的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)。交易者不應(yīng)該忘記，即使短期需求情況是存疑的，但長(zhǎng)期需求形勢(shì)是可以確定的。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com
????原文如下：
????4 Things To Know Now about The Future Of Oil Demand
????It's coming up on a year since the coronavirus pandemic exploded across the world and global lockdowns expanded beyond China to almost all of the rest of the world. The global oil demand situation remains uncertain.
????However, some aspects of the oil market are now better understood. Currently, it's crucial to break down what the winter freeze is doing to Texas-area oil production and refining; what OPEC+ is likely to do when it meets in two weeks; why U.S. fuel prices are up; and what, if anything, we can glean right now about the future of oil demand:
????1. Temporary Disruptions in U.S. Oil Supply
????Frigid temperatures in Texas have caused a significant drop in crude oil production in the United States this week. According to the latest information, more than 4 million bpd of oil (out of the 4.6 million bpd Texas typically produces) is now offline. That represents about 40% of total U.S. oil production.
????For comparison, this past October, producers shut about 92% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in preparation for Hurricane Delta, which amounted to 1.68 million bpd. Temperatures are supposed to improve through the weekend. The disruption may last until next week, but some production could be offline longer if significant repairs are needed.
????Most of the refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico region is also offline for similar reasons. The refining disruption likely amounts to about 4 million bpd. Oil prices rose at the beginning of the week on news that such shutdowns might be coming, and WTI finally topped the $60 per barrel mark.
????Prices rose another 1% on Wednesday, as more details about the disruptions became clear, though traders should be prepared for some retreat from these price gains as production and refining return. Gasoline prices are also rising in the United States as a result of the refinery outages. For example, prices increased about $0.05 per gallon in the Midwest on Wednesday.
????2. OPEC+ to Meet on March 4
????OPEC+ members are preparing to meet in two weeks and have already started presenting their positions to the media. Currently, Saudi Arabia is holding back an extra 1 million bpd of production, but, according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, it intends to continue this policy only through the end of March.
????Saudi Arabia will resume pumping at its quota in April. This was Saudi Arabia’s position when it announced the “surprise cuts” back in January, so this information confirms that Saudi Arabia’s policy hasn’t changed in the last few weeks.
????Russia, on the other hand, was authorized by OPEC+ to increase production in February and March, but it hasn’t been able to pump more barrels due to abnormally cold weather. Russia’s production has actually averaged 10.115 million bpd in February, about 44,000 bpd less than January. It is possible that warmer temperatures in March may bring an increase in Russia’s oil production.
????When it meets on Mar. 4, OPEC+ will decide whether to continue pumping at current levels in April (with an additional 1 million bpd from Saudi Arabia returning) or it could decide to increase production rates since prices are higher. Russia indicated this week that it believes the oil market is balanced, while Saudi Arabia expressed more cautious and tempered optimism about the current state of the market.
????3. Higher Fuel Prices in the U.S.
????The average price of a gallon of gasoline has increased nearly $0.20 in the past month, sparking concerns that U.S. consumers may see a return to the high gasoline prices that characterized the Obama administration. Some of the increase in oil prices, and therefore gasoline prices, can be tied to the sentiment created by the Biden administration’s early executive orders on oil and gas leasing and oil transportation.
????However, these executive orders are not yet impacting the fundamentals. Rising prices are largely due to tightening fundamentals unconnected to these policies.
????4. Oil Demand Questionable
????Short-term oil demand in the U.S. and Europe is still a major question. Gasoline consumption cannot be expected to return to previous levels until free movement is allowed, children return to school and many more workers return to their offices.
????Many European countries have extended their lockdown orders through March or April, though in some countries legislative bodies or courts are overruling the executive’s authority. In the United States, the situation is also unclear. Many school districts in the U.S. have not resumed full-time, in-school classes, so many parents are unable to return to work out of the home. Many forecasters seem to be counting on a resumption of full-time schooling in the autumn, but the political situation in America may make that impossible.
????In the long-term, oil demand is expected to grow outside of Europe and Asia. (Last week, this column examined India’s potential growth). Traders should not forget that even if the short-term demand situation is questionable, the long-term demand situation is more certain.
