???? 據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)1月30日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)雷斯塔能源的一項(xiàng)分析顯示，美國(guó)在疫情最嚴(yán)重時(shí)累積的鉆探但未完井(DUC)數(shù)量已降至疫情前的水平。在2020年6月達(dá)到6548口的多年高點(diǎn)后，到2020年12月底，該國(guó)主要油區(qū)的這類油井?dāng)?shù)量減少到約5700口。
????實(shí)時(shí)DUC的庫(kù)存量（不包括很久以前鉆探的廢棄井）在同一時(shí)期也減少了約800口，從去年6月的4,353口下降到12月的3,528口。當(dāng)前水平石油實(shí)時(shí)DUC數(shù)量與2020年初市場(chǎng)低迷開始之前的水平相當(dāng)。
????雷斯塔能源公司頁(yè)巖研究負(fù)責(zé)人阿特姆·阿布拉莫夫（ Artem Abramov）表示，鑒于近期油價(jià)的回升，該行業(yè)將在今年上半年進(jìn)一步加速壓裂活動(dòng)，超越當(dāng)前水平。從目前“實(shí)時(shí)”的DUC庫(kù)存與水力壓裂運(yùn)行速度的比率可以看出，這種加速可能會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)。水力壓裂運(yùn)行速度仍在6-8個(gè)月的范圍內(nèi)，而2018-2019年的正常水平約為3個(gè)月。
????截至2021年1月21日，我們確定了2020年12月在北美開展了626次壓裂作業(yè)，我們預(yù)計(jì)當(dāng)月基于事實(shí)的報(bào)道將基本完成。 我們預(yù)計(jì)，到2021年1月，將有830口水力壓裂井，這是2020年3月新冠疫情引發(fā)的低迷開始以來(lái)的最高月總數(shù)。
????追溯到DUC，幾乎所有的主要油區(qū)在2020年都遵循了全國(guó)的趨勢(shì)，首先在去年第二季度出現(xiàn)了不尋常的庫(kù)存積累，然后在下半年逐漸減少。截至2020年12月，二疊紀(jì)盆地占水平“實(shí)時(shí)”石油DUC累積量的55％左右，約為1,900口，并且與該盆地的實(shí)時(shí)DUC相比，它在下半年的總產(chǎn)量中占相當(dāng)?shù)姆蓊~。 2020年6月達(dá)到2400口井的峰值。
????鑒于當(dāng)前的資本紀(jì)律環(huán)境和專注于自由現(xiàn)金流，Rystad預(yù)計(jì)該行業(yè)將在今年上半年很大程度上堅(jiān)持其原有的壓裂程序，但可能會(huì)分配一些額外的資本支出，以更大幅度地增加鉆機(jī)數(shù)量 。這將導(dǎo)致壓裂活動(dòng)從下半年開始上升，并且假設(shè)WTI保持在50美元/桶以上，到年底，維護(hù)計(jì)劃的某些偏差將會(huì)出現(xiàn)。
????郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)
????原文如下：
????US UNCOMPLETED SHALE WELLS AT PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS AND AWAIT FOR FRACKING
????The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) that accumulated at the height of the pandemic has already subsided to pre-Covid-19 levels in the US, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. After swelling to a multi-year high of 6,548 wells in June 2020, the number of such wells in the country’s major oil regions slimmed down to around 5,700 wells by the end of December 2020.
????The inventory of live DUCs, which excludes tentatively abandoned wells drilled a long time ago, also declined by around 800 wells in the same period, from 4,353 in June to 3,528 in December. The current level of horizontal oil live DUC count is comparable to the level seen in early 2020, just before the market downturn started.
????“Given the recent recovery in oil prices, the industry is enjoying the flexibility of further accelerating fracking activity beyond current levels in the first half of the year. Such an acceleration could be delivered, as can be implied from the ratio of the current ‘live’ DUC inventory to the run rate of fracking, which is still in the six-to-eight-month range, compared to the normal level of about three months seen in 2018-2019,” says Artem Abramov, Head of Shale Research at Rystad Energy.
????As of 21 January 2021, we identified 626 started frac operations in North America for December 2020 and we expect the month’s fact-based coverage to be almost complete. For January 2021, we project that there will be 830 wells fracked, the highest monthly total after March 2020, when the Covid-19 induced downturn began.
????Back to DUCs, nearly all major oil regions followed the national trend in 2020, first exhibiting an unusual inventory build-up in the second quarter and then moving toward a gradual depletion in the second half of the year. The Permian Basin accounted for around 55% of the total horizontal ‘live’ oil DUC inventory as of December 2020, at around 1,900, and it accounted for a comparable share of the drawdown through the second half of the year, as the basin’s live DUCs peaked at 2,400 wells in June 2020.“
????Given the current environment of capital discipline and focus on free cash flow generation, Rystad expects the industry to largely stick with its original fracking programs in the first half of the year, but probably allocate some additional capex to a more significant increase in the rig count. This will result in an upside in frac activity from the second half of the year, and certain deviations from the maintenance program will be visible toward the end of the year, assuming that WTI holds above the $50 per barrel mark.
