???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年3月31日倫敦報(bào)道，分析師告訴路透社記者，盡管最近有跡象顯示，由于歐洲正在應(yīng)對(duì)新冠肺炎疫情石油需求減弱，但原油期貨市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)仍表明，今年下半年石油需求將開始超過(guò)供應(yīng)。

????布倫特原油期貨即月價(jià)差在3月份轉(zhuǎn)至正價(jià)差，表明短期內(nèi)需求減弱和石油供應(yīng)過(guò)剩。

????上周，距離最近的5月份布倫特原油合約價(jià)格自今年1月以來(lái)首次低于下個(gè)月的6月份合約價(jià)格。期貨——即近月價(jià)格低于未來(lái)幾個(gè)月價(jià)格的結(jié)構(gòu)——表明市場(chǎng)供過(guò)于求。只有最近的合約是正價(jià)差，但近幾天現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)的疲軟加劇了對(duì)短期石油需求的擔(dān)憂。

????3月31日早些時(shí)候，5月份的原油期貨價(jià)格仍比6月份的原油期貨價(jià)格每桶上漲了0.15美元。

????然而，期貨曲線上剩余的合約仍處于現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)狀態(tài)，市場(chǎng)的這種狀態(tài)表明供應(yīng)趨緊，即期價(jià)格高于遠(yuǎn)期價(jià)格。6個(gè)月期布倫特原油價(jià)差(5月和11月合約的價(jià)差)仍處于每桶2美元以上的深度現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)，分析師表示，這繼續(xù)表明今年下半年石油市場(chǎng)將重新平衡，需求將開始超過(guò)供應(yīng)。

????盡管最近歐洲主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體重新封鎖導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存增加，但Energy Aspects的分析師仍然看好下半年石油需求復(fù)蘇的前景。“我們?nèi)钥春孟募驹蛢r(jià)格和價(jià)差，” Energy Aspects的分析師對(duì)路透社記者如是表示。

????近幾周，隨著歐洲封鎖，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)跡象表明，現(xiàn)貨石油需求并不像石油期貨價(jià)格所暗示的那樣強(qiáng)勁，需求有所減弱。

????李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

????原文如下：

????Analysts See Oil Markets Balancing Out In H2 2021

????Despite recent signs of weakening oil demand as Europe grapples with a new wave of COVID cases, the crude oil futures market structure still points to demand beginning to outpace supply in the second half of 2021, analysts tell Reuters.

????The front-month spread of the Brent Crude futures prices flipped to contango in March, pointing to weaker demand and an oil oversupply in the immediate term.

????Last week, the nearest Brent Crude contract for May was trading at a discount to the next-month contract, the June contract, for the first time since January this year. The contango—the structure in which the front-month price is lower than prices in future months—points to an oversupply on the market. only the nearest contract was in contango, but the weakness in the backwardation in recent days has exacerbated concerns over near-term oil demand.

????Early on Wednesday, the May contract continued to trade in a $0.15 a barrel contango versus the June contract.

????However, the remaining contracts further out on the futures curve remain in backwardation, the state of the market signaling tighter supplies with prompt prices higher than those further out in time. The six-month Brent spread, the difference between the May and November contracts, is still in a deep backwardation of over $2 a barrel, which, analysts say, continues to point to the oil market rebalancing in the second half of this year with demand starting to exceed supply.

????Analysts at Energy Aspects remain bullish on the prospects of oil demand recovery in the second half of the year, despite the recent build-up of inventories amid renewed lockdowns in major European economies.

????“We remain bullish (on) summer crude prices and spreads,” Energy Aspects told Reuters.

????Demand has been weaker in recent weeks, with lockdowns in Europe and signs emerging from the physical market that spot oil demand was not as strong as oil futures prices had suggested.

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