據(jù)5月4日Oil Now報道，在近兩周的時間里，印度每天新增超過30萬例新冠肺炎病例，疫情危機日益嚴峻，可能會導(dǎo)致石油消費的前景在短期內(nèi)惡化，不過，就長期看，今年晚些時候或?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)反彈。

　　印度石油工業(yè)聯(lián)合會(FIPI)總干事Malhotra稱："從目前的情況來看，可能需要幾個月的時間，印度的疫情才能穩(wěn)定下來。由于地區(qū)封鎖限制了許多活動，二季度的石油市場不容樂觀。”

　　印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)敦促各邦領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將重點放在隔離區(qū)上，將區(qū)域性的封鎖作為最后手段。由于擔(dān)心疫情可能會變得更糟，許多省份計劃實施封鎖措施。

　　隨著印度受到創(chuàng)紀錄的新冠肺炎病例的打擊，2021年印度石油需求將同比增長40萬桶/天，較此前44萬桶/天的增長預(yù)期有所下調(diào)。這個數(shù)字可能會再下調(diào)2萬桶/天，但進一步的下調(diào)還要取決于未來幾周的形勢發(fā)展。

　　分析師Chris Midgley認為，“隨著全球工業(yè)活動的復(fù)蘇，印度將繼續(xù)從強勁的世界經(jīng)濟中獲益。石油需求可能在短期內(nèi)放緩，但有足夠的條件讓我們相信，2021年下半年，石油消費將出現(xiàn)強勁復(fù)蘇。”

　　作為世界第三大原油消費國和進口國，作為與圭亞那政府長期協(xié)議的一部分，印度表示有興趣購買圭亞那的Liza原油，與有關(guān)部門以及商業(yè)實體合作，達成一項有利于原油進出口的協(xié)議。據(jù)了解，圭亞那還沒有就向印度出口原油做出確切的決定，印度自然資源部長維克拉姆?巴拉特(Vickram Bharrat)表示，政府的主要目標(biāo)是以市場價格出售其原油份額，從而使其回報最大化。

　　這個南美國家將成為拉丁美洲地區(qū)的主要產(chǎn)油國，到2027年產(chǎn)量將超過100萬桶/天。

　　值得一提的是，印度的石油和天然氣需求預(yù)計將增長近3倍，從2018年的2.29億噸增加到2040年的6.07億噸。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 Oil Now

　　原文如下：

　　India’s pandemic crisis won’t kill long-term oil demand, Liza Crude still on country’s radar

　　India has witnessed more than 300,000 new coronavirus cases per day for nearly two weeks in what is a growing humanitarian crisis that could see the outlook for oil consumption worsening in the short term, before rebounding later this year.

　　“Looking at the situation now, it could take a couple of months to stabilize,” Malhotra said. This quarter will be not so good for oil as regional lockdowns have restricted many activities. And there is more to come.

　　Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged leaders of the various states to focus on micro containment zones and use lockdowns only as a last resort. But many provinces are planning to implement regional lockdowns amid fears the situation could get worse.

　　Analytics has said that India would witness a year-on-year oil demand growth of 400,000 b/d in 2021, revised down from an earlier growth estimate of 440,000 b/d, as the country grapples with record COVID-19 cases.

　　Chris Midgley, , said last week that those numbers could possibly be revised down by another 20,000 b/d, but any further revision would depend on how the situation develops over the next few weeks.

　　But Midgley added that India would continue to reap the benefits of a robust world economy as industrial activity picks up across the globe. Oil demand could slow in the near term but there were enough conditions to believe that consumption would stage a robust recovery in the second half of 2021.

　　The world’s third-largest crude consumer and importer has expressed interest in buying Guyana’s Liza Crude as part of a long-term deal with the Guyanese government. The country is interested in working with authorities as well as commercial entities to forge an agreement that would facilitate these exports. OilNOW understands that no firm decision has yet been made by the Guyana government on crude exports to India. Natural Resources Minister, Vickram Bharrat, has told OilNOW the government’s primary objective is to sell its share of crude at market price where it will be able to maximise returns for the country.

　　The South American country is positioned to become a major oil producer in the Latin America region with output set to surpass the 1 million barrels per day mark by 2027.

　　India’s oil & gas demand is expected to increase nearly 3-fold from 229 million metric tons in 2018 to 607 million metric tons in 2040.

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