據(jù)4月27日Rigzone報(bào)道，亞洲油價(jià)上漲，歐佩克+預(yù)計(jì)，盡管印度等國(guó)家新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)拖累了短期需求前景，但今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。

　　紐約原油期貨價(jià)格在周一下跌0.4%后上漲至每桶62美元以上。歐佩克+技術(shù)委員會(huì)調(diào)高了2021年需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期，但警告稱(chēng)，印度、日本和巴西再度爆發(fā)的疫情可能破壞石油需求復(fù)蘇。印度的第二次疫情浪潮尤其致命，導(dǎo)致該國(guó)醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)不堪重負(fù)，阻礙了燃料消費(fèi)。

　　印度最大的煉油商印度石油公司(Indian Oil Corp.)正以罕見(jiàn)的方式向現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)出售汽油，而其他原油加工企業(yè)則推遲了一些工廠(chǎng)的維修計(jì)劃，原因是工人們要么逃離，要么生病。

　　歐佩克+周三召開(kāi)月度部長(zhǎng)級(jí)會(huì)議，討論其生產(chǎn)政策，但部分國(guó)家前景堪憂(yōu)可能給會(huì)議帶來(lái)挑戰(zhàn)，盡管該組織已同意從5月開(kāi)始增加市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)。歐佩克秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)巴爾金多表示，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了“積極的信號(hào)”，但他也指出，石油市場(chǎng)中還有許多消極因素需要大家繼續(xù)保持警惕。

　　Axi首席市場(chǎng)策略師Stephen Innes稱(chēng)："本周的歐佩克+會(huì)議將必須在美國(guó)和歐洲的樂(lè)觀(guān)前景與印度等地區(qū)的消極數(shù)據(jù)之間尋找平衡。值得一提的是，歐佩克+內(nèi)部的看漲人士不太可能提出加速放松減產(chǎn)的建議。”

　　在油價(jià)方面。倫敦時(shí)間上午7點(diǎn)30分，紐約商品交易所 6月份的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)價(jià)格上漲0.8%，至每桶62.39美元。歐洲期貨交易所6月份布倫特原油結(jié)算價(jià)上漲0.7%，至每桶66.13美元，較前一交易日下跌0.7%。

　　布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)57美分，這是一個(gè)看漲的信號(hào)，短期合約的價(jià)格高于遠(yuǎn)期合約。相比之下，4月初的時(shí)候是現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)為40美分。

　　歐佩克+技術(shù)專(zhuān)家委員會(huì)預(yù)測(cè)，今年的石油消費(fèi)量將比去年增加600萬(wàn)桶/天。到本季度末，疫情期間積累的大部分燃料庫(kù)存將被清空。

　　中國(guó)和美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，歐洲部分地區(qū)也出現(xiàn)了一些積極復(fù)蘇跡象。一季度，韓國(guó)投資和出口增長(zhǎng)加快，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的步伐強(qiáng)于預(yù)期。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone

　　原文如下：

　　Oil Up Amid OPEC+ Optimism

　　Oil climbed in Asia with OPEC+ projecting a strong global recovery this year, even as a Covid-19 flare-up in India and other nations dragged on the near-term demand outlook.

　　Futures in New York rose above $62 a barrel after slipping 0.4% on Monday. An OPEC+ technical committee raised its forecast for demand growth in 2021, but cautioned that a resurgent virus in India, Japan and Brazil could derail the oil demand recovery. The second Indian wave has been particularly deadly as it overwhelms the health-care system and cripples fuel consumption.

　　Indian Oil Corp., the country’s biggest refiner, is looking to offload gasoline into the spot market in a rare sale, while other processors are postponing planned maintenance at some plants as workers either flee or fall ill.

　　The deteriorating outlook in some countries may pose a challenge to OPEC+ when it meets for a monthly ministerial meeting on Wednesday to discuss its production policy, although the group has already agreed to start adding more supply to the market from May. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said Monday that there are “positive signals” in the global economy, but also pointed to factors in the oil market that require ongoing vigilance.

　　“The OPEC+ meeting this week will have to balance the improved view in China, the U.S. and Europe against negative data in India and other regions,” said Stephen Innes, a chief market strategist at Axi. It’s unlikely that bulls within the group will be able to make a strong case for an accelerated easing of production cuts, he added.

　　Prices

　　West Texas Intermediate for June rose 0.8% to $62.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:30 a.m. London time.

　　Brent for June settlement gained 0.7% to $66.13 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after losing 0.7% in the previous session.

　　The prompt timespread for Brent was 57 cents a barrel in backwardation -- a bullish market structure were near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones. That compares with 40 cents at the start of April.

　　The OPEC+ committee of technical experts forecast that oil consumption will rebound by 6 million barrels a day this year from last, according to delegates who attended the panel on Monday. Most of the fuel inventories glut built up during the pandemic will have cleared by the end of this quarter, they said.

　　The recovery is being driven by a strong rebound in the U.S., while there are some positive signs emerging in parts of Europe. South Korea’s economy recovered at a stronger pace than expected last quarter, as investment picked up with export growth.

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