據(jù)5月7日Oil & Gas Journal報(bào)道，Rystad Energy表示，全球液化天然氣（LNG）市場(chǎng)在2025年后繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張，但由于莫桑比克液化天然氣項(xiàng)目可能推遲開(kāi)發(fā)，市場(chǎng)將變得更加緊張，甚至可能出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)短缺。

　　莫桑比克曾一度有望在2025年左右躋身全球液化天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)的前列，但道達(dá)爾最近宣布的不可抗力標(biāo)志著其莫桑比克陸上液化天然氣綜合設(shè)施存在無(wú)限期推遲的可能，加上受影響的Rovuma液化天然氣項(xiàng)目，這兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目每年的液化天然氣生產(chǎn)能力為2800萬(wàn)噸。

　　在2026年至2030年期間，市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)減少多達(dá)900萬(wàn)噸/年的供應(yīng)，從而破壞全球供需平衡。Rystad Energy此前預(yù)測(cè)，2026年的市場(chǎng)將基本平衡，但現(xiàn)在，對(duì)可用產(chǎn)量的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)可能會(huì)更激烈，從而導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和更高的價(jià)格波動(dòng)。

　　同樣，如果Rovuma液化天然氣1520萬(wàn)噸/年的潛在產(chǎn)能無(wú)法獲得，原本預(yù)測(cè)的2027-2028年的寬松市場(chǎng)狀況可能會(huì)變得更加平衡。最后，在2029年和2030年期間，由于預(yù)計(jì)全球液化天然氣需求激增，市場(chǎng)可能再次吃緊，并面臨供應(yīng)短缺，因?yàn)镽ovuma液化天然氣可能要到2030年才能達(dá)到穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)量。

　　在最新的預(yù)測(cè)中，由于莫桑比克兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目的延遲，2026年預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)400萬(wàn)噸/年的供應(yīng)過(guò)剩，低于之前預(yù)測(cè)的640萬(wàn)噸/年。影響將在2027年擴(kuò)大，導(dǎo)致預(yù)期的供應(yīng)過(guò)剩從之前的1590萬(wàn)噸/年縮減到1100萬(wàn)噸/年。最大的降幅發(fā)生在2028年，供應(yīng)過(guò)剩被限制在僅100萬(wàn)噸/年，低于此前預(yù)測(cè)的930萬(wàn)噸/年。

　　如果預(yù)期的供應(yīng)產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)建延遲成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，2029年液化天然氣供應(yīng)將出現(xiàn)5.6百萬(wàn)桶/天的缺口，而不是之前預(yù)計(jì)的200萬(wàn)桶/天的過(guò)剩。這種影響將持續(xù)下去，但將從2030年開(kāi)始趨于穩(wěn)定，預(yù)計(jì)供應(yīng)缺口為170萬(wàn)噸/年，而不是預(yù)期100萬(wàn)噸/年。

　　莫桑比克液化天然氣(Mozambique LNG)和Rovuma液化天然氣項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的延期讓液化天然氣的買(mǎi)家和賣(mài)家都感到警醒。莫桑比克擁有一個(gè)龐大的、低成本的資源基地，使其液化天然氣項(xiàng)目具有很強(qiáng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，而且該國(guó)地理位置便利，可以滿足亞洲的需求。Rystad估計(jì)，莫桑比克LNG項(xiàng)目的盈虧平衡點(diǎn)為5-7美元/百萬(wàn)英熱。

　　Rystad Energy預(yù)測(cè)，在新的再氣化能力和更多天然氣產(chǎn)能的推動(dòng)下，需求將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，從現(xiàn)在到2024年，液化天然氣市場(chǎng)將日趨緊張，導(dǎo)致亞洲現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格達(dá)到850美元/百萬(wàn)英熱。

　　Rystad此前預(yù)計(jì)，隨著大量液化項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)，2025年左右新一波供應(yīng)進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，將形成價(jià)格下行周期，亞洲現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將降至接近2027年美國(guó)液化天然氣5.7美元/百萬(wàn)英熱的短期邊際成本水平。然而，莫桑比克項(xiàng)目的潛在延誤意味著，在2025年左右，出現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)期緊張局面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來(lái)越大。

　　因此，2025年亞洲現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格可能會(huì)保持在8美元/百萬(wàn)英熱以上。2026年至2029年期間的價(jià)格下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也因市場(chǎng)更為平衡而降低，雖然價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將下降，但到2027年價(jià)格保持在6美元/百萬(wàn)英熱以上的可能性更大。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

　　原文如下：

　　LNG market faces supply deficit from decade-long impact of Mozambique delays

　　The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, which was set to be constantly loose in the second part of this decade, is instead set to get tighter and could even see annual supply deficits because of likely delays in development of Mozambique LNG projects due to the country’s worsening security situation, Rystad Energy said.

　　Mozambique was once poised to rise to the upper ranks of global LNG producers by the middle the decade, but Total’s recent force majeure declaration signals indefinite delays on its onshore Mozambique LNG complex (OGJ Online, Apr. 26, 2021). The violent insurgencies also threaten ExxonMobil’s yet-to-be sanctioned Rovuma LNG. Together the two projects represent 28 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG capacity.

　　The market could see up to 9 mtpa of supply removed between 2026 and 2030, disrupting global balances. Rystad Energy had previously forecasted a largely balanced market in 2026, but now there could be more competition for available volumes that year, leading to an upside risk in prices and higher price volatility.

　　Similarly, the loose market conditions of 2027-2028 that had been originally forecasted could become more balanced if Rovuma LNG’s 15.2 mtpa of potential capacity is unavailable. Finally, across 2029 and 2030, the market could tighten again and face supply deficits amid an expected surge in global LNG demand, as Rovuma LNG may only reach plateau production after 2030.

　　In an updated forecast, which accounts for delays in the two projects in Mozambique, an oversupply of 4 mtpa is expected in 2026, down from a previous forecast of 6.4 mtpa. The impact of the delays will grow in 2027, causing the expected oversupply to shrink to 11 mtpa from previously forecast 15.9 mtpa. The largest downgrade is for 2028, with oversupply being limited to just 1 mtpa, down from 9.3 mtpa in the previous forecast.

　　If the expected delays materialize, 2029 will see an LNG supply deficit of 5.6 mpta instead of a previously expected surplus of 2 mtpa. The effect will persist but will begin to level from 2030, with an expected supply deficit of 1.7 mtpa instead of a surplus of 1 mtpa.

　　Delays for Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG are sobering for LNG buyers and sellers alike. Mozambique has a large, low-cost resource base—making its LNG projects highly competitive—and the country is conveniently located to serve upcoming demand in Asia. Rystad estimates DES Asia break-evens of Mozambique’s LNG projects to be $5-7/MMbtu.

　　Rystad Energy forecasts a tightening LNG market between now and 2024 as demand continues to grow, driven by new regasification capacity and more gas-power generation, resulting in Asian spot prices reaching $8.5/MMbtu.

　　With a strong pipeline of liquefaction projects under construction, Rystad previously expected that a new wave of supplies coming into the market around 2025 would create a downward cycle in prices, with the Asian spot price dropping to a level closer to the short-run marginal cost of US LNG of $5.7/MMbtu in 2027. However, the potential delay of the Mozambican projects means that there is now an increasing risk of prolonged period of tightness midway through this decade, and that lower prices could be seen 1-2 years later than previously expected.

　　As a result, Asian spot prices could remain above $8/MMbtu in 2025. The downside risk in prices between 2026 and 2029 is also reduced by a better-balanced market – while prices are expected to decline, there is higher likelihood for them to remain above $6/MMbtu in 2027.

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