據(jù)路透社5月7日專欄報道，去年沙特-俄羅斯價格戰(zhàn)和第一波疫情之后，美國石油庫存飆升，目前已恢復(fù)正常。

　　上周，戰(zhàn)略石油儲備之外的原油和成品油總庫存僅為1700萬桶，比2015-2019年疫情爆發(fā)前五年的平均水平高出1.4%。

　　考慮到這兩個時間序列的歷史波動性，原油(700萬桶)和成品油(1100萬桶)的剩余盈余與5年平均水平相比并不顯著。

　　自去年6月底達(dá)到峰值以來，原油(7500萬桶)和成品油(1.01億桶)的盈余已經(jīng)減少(見5月5日美國能源信息署《石油現(xiàn)狀周報》)。

　　由于歐佩克+和美國頁巖油公司產(chǎn)量下降，以及石油消費(fèi)的復(fù)蘇，過剩的庫存已經(jīng)被吸收。

　　因此，布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價格目前的實際價格處于或略高于長期平均水平，反映了市場的再平衡。

　　布倫特原油的6個月期價差已進(jìn)入明顯的現(xiàn)貨溢價，遠(yuǎn)高于其長期平均水平，因交易商預(yù)計今年下半年庫存將通過平衡降至正常水平以下。

　　在美國墨西哥灣沿岸，作為北美主要的煉油中心和海運(yùn)原油定價中心，商業(yè)原油庫存仍約為1400萬桶，較疫情爆發(fā)前五年的平均水平高出5%。

　　但該地區(qū)原油盈余較7月初的7600萬桶(33%)有所減少，與五年平均水平相比的增幅也低于近年來的趨勢。

　　墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油廠和儲存終端與布倫特原油市場相連，因此當(dāng)?shù)赜蛶斓那蹇胀聘吡爽F(xiàn)貨價格和價差。

　　美國石油庫存的減少是所有經(jīng)合組織國家更廣泛正常化的一部分。

　　在石油行業(yè)歷史上最嚴(yán)重的生產(chǎn)過剩危機(jī)發(fā)生的13個月后，市場基本上已經(jīng)恢復(fù)正常，比許多分析師當(dāng)時的預(yù)測要快得多，但與之前的盛衰周期一致。

　　關(guān)鍵的例外是航空燃油市場，對國際客運(yùn)航空的持續(xù)限制繼續(xù)抑制全球每天數(shù)百萬桶的石油消費(fèi)。

　　最終的正常化，包括歐佩克+和美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商恢復(fù)疫情前的產(chǎn)量，取決于恢復(fù)客運(yùn)航班的時間和規(guī)模。

　　裘寅 編譯自 路透社

　　原文如下：

　　Column: U.S. petroleum stockpiles normalise after pandemic surge

　　U.S. petroleum inventories have returned to normal after ballooning during the Saudi-Russian volume war and first wave of the coronavirus epidemic last year.

　　Total stocks of crude oil and refined products outside the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week were just 17 million barrels, or 1.4%, above the pre-epidemic five-year average for 2015-2019.

　　Small remaining surpluses to the five-year average in both crude (7 million barrels) and products (11 million barrels) were not significant given the historic volatility in both time series.

　　Surpluses in crude (75 million barrels) and products (101 million barrels) have shrunk since peaking at the end of June last year (“Weekly petroleum status report”, U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 5).

　　Excess stocks have been absorbed as a result of lower production by OPEC+ and U.S. shale firms, and the recovery in oil consumption.

　　In consequence, Brent spot prices are now trading at or slightly above their long-term average in real terms reflecting the rebalancing of the market.

　　And Brent’s six-month calendar spread has moved into a significant backwardation, well above its long-term average, as traders anticipate stocks will move through balance to below normal in the second half of the year.

　　On the U.S. Gulf Coast, the major refining hub and centre for seaborne oil pricing in North America, commercial crude stocks are still roughly 14 million barrels, or 5%, above the pre-epidemic five-year average.

　　But the regional surplus has shrunk from 76 million barrels or 33% in early July and the increase compared with the five-year average is below the trend in recent years.

　　Gulf Coast refineries and storage terminals are connected to the Brent market so the emptying of local tank farms has boosted spot prices and calendar spreads.

　　The reduction of petroleum inventories in the United States is part of a broader normalisation across all OECD countries.

　　Thirteen months after the worst overproduction crisis in the oil industry’s history, the market has largely returned to normal, much faster than many analysts predicted at the time, but in line with previous boom-bust cycles.

　　The critical exception is the market for jet fuel, where continued restrictions on international passenger aviation continue to depress global oil consumption by several million barrels per day.

　　Final normalisation, including a return to pre-epidemic production by OPEC+ and U.S. shale producers, depends on the timing and scale of a return to passenger flying.