據(jù)路透社7月6日?qǐng)?bào)道，亞洲的原油買家擔(dān)心，歐佩克+會(huì)議意外取消可能會(huì)推高油價(jià)，損害利潤(rùn)。現(xiàn)在正在等待沙特阿拉伯的官方銷售價(jià)格(OSPs)，以評(píng)估石油市場(chǎng)的走向。該價(jià)格被推遲到歐佩克+會(huì)議之后公布，并為中東銷往亞洲的大部分原油的價(jià)格定下基調(diào)。
周一，在歐佩克+及其盟友的部長(zhǎng)們?nèi)∠耸彤a(chǎn)量談判，并沒(méi)有設(shè)定恢復(fù)談判的日期后，布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲至每桶77美元以上，為2018年以來(lái)的最高水平。
在希望維持產(chǎn)量限制的最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)沙特阿拉伯與要求增產(chǎn)的阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)發(fā)生沖突后，歐佩克+談判被取消。下一次歐佩克+會(huì)議的日期尚未確定，這使得一些消息人士猜測(cè)8月不會(huì)增產(chǎn)，而另一些人預(yù)計(jì)該組織將在幾天內(nèi)召開(kāi)一次新的會(huì)議，以確保達(dá)成協(xié)議。
不過(guò)，亞洲的買家仍樂(lè)觀地認(rèn)為，爭(zhēng)執(zhí)將是暫時(shí)的。
一位印度煉油商表示：“買家希望價(jià)格合理，早日釋放更多的產(chǎn)量將對(duì)我們有益，這種爭(zhēng)吵很大可能是一種暫時(shí)現(xiàn)象，最終會(huì)得到解決。”
煉油行業(yè)消息人士稱，目前，盡管全球燃料需求從疫情中逐漸復(fù)蘇，但亞洲現(xiàn)貨原油市場(chǎng)仍然供應(yīng)充足。要知道，亞洲是全球最大的石油消費(fèi)地區(qū)，約占全球石油消費(fèi)量的37%。
一位來(lái)自日本煉油商的消息人士稱，即使歐佩克+已同意增產(chǎn)，對(duì)亞洲現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)的短期影響也將微乎其微，因?yàn)閿M議的日增產(chǎn)量似乎只有40萬(wàn)桶。
在缺乏明確信號(hào)的情況下，終端用戶現(xiàn)在正密切關(guān)注沙特阿美的原油官方售價(jià)，以獲得更明確的現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)方向信號(hào)。該消息人士稱，由于歐佩克+談判的破裂，沙特石油公司(通常在每個(gè)月的第五天發(fā)布)已將公布時(shí)間推遲。
沙特石油公司決定了科威特和伊拉克的油價(jià)趨勢(shì)，影響了銷往亞洲的超過(guò)1200萬(wàn)桶/天的原油。目前，原油官方售價(jià)還未公布，這意味著沙特仍在努力與ADNOC進(jìn)行談判，沙特通常會(huì)等到市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)明朗后才宣布。”
王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社
原文如下：
Asian oil buyers fret over margin impact of cancelled OPEC+ meeting
Crude oil buyers in Asia are concerned that an unexpected cancellation of an OPEC+ meeting to discuss a rise in output could drive oil prices even higher and hurt their margins.
They are now awaiting Saudi Arabia's official selling prices (OSPs), which were delayed until after the OPEC+ meeting and set the tone for prices of a majority of Middle East crude sales to Asia, to assess the oil market's direction.
Brent crude oil prices rallied to above $77 a barrel, the highest since 2018, on Monday, after ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, called off oil output talks and set no new date to resume them. read more
"That could force them to cut runs, which should lift margins again and bolster their crude oil buying," the source added. China is the world's second largest oil consumer and top overall importer.
The talks were cancelled following a clash between top producer Saudi Arabia, which wants to maintain output curbs, and the United Arab Emirates, which has pushed for increased output. read more
No date has been set for the next OPEC+ meeting, which has left some sources speculating there would be no output increase in August while others expect the group to convene a new meeting within days in order to secure an agreement.
Still, buyers in Asia are optimistic the row will be temporary.
"Buyers would like prices to be reasonable and early release of additional barrels will help us ... this is more of a temporary phenomenon and would settle eventually," a source with an Indian refiner said.
For now, Asia's physical crude market remains adequately supplied even as global fuel demand gradually recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, refining sources said. Asia is the top oil consuming region, accounting for roughly 37% of world use.
The near-term impact on Asia's physical market would only be marginal even if OPEC+ had agreed to increase volume, because the proposed output rise appeared to be only 400,000 barrels a day, said a source with a Japanese refiner.
In the absence of clarity, end users are now closely monitoring the release of OSPs from Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) for clearer signals on the direction of the physical market.
Saudi crude OSPs, which are typically released around the fifth day of each month, have been delayed due to the breakdown of OPEC+ talks, the sources said.
Saudi OSPs set the trend for Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affect more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude bound for Asia.
"The fact that Saudi OSPs still have not been released means that Saudi is still making efforts for talks with ADNOC. The Saudis normally wait till the market becomes clear before they announce the OSPs," said the source at a North Asia refinery.
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