據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年7月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)周二表示，石油市場(chǎng)至今已經(jīng)緊張了一周，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟內(nèi)部有可能爆發(fā)新的油價(jià)戰(zhàn)，并補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，目前的談判僵局也有可能破壞全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

　　IEA在其備受關(guān)注的7月石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，6月全球石油日需求估計(jì)將增加320萬(wàn)桶至9680萬(wàn)桶。

　　IEA表示，在今年剩余時(shí)間里，全球石油需求將繼續(xù)反彈，原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)健、疫苗接種率上升以及許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體限制放寬。

　　然而，IEA指出，由于歐佩克+僵局的持續(xù)，油價(jià)波動(dòng)加劇，這對(duì)產(chǎn)油國(guó)和消費(fèi)國(guó)都沒(méi)有好處，導(dǎo)致石油市場(chǎng)緊張不安。

　　IEA說(shuō)：“與此同時(shí)，市場(chǎng)份額之爭(zhēng)的可能性，即使很遙遠(yuǎn)，也籠罩著市場(chǎng)。高油價(jià)可能加劇通貨膨脹，損害脆弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。 Covid-19德?tīng)査儺惒《驹谖磥?lái)幾個(gè)月可能產(chǎn)生的全球影響的不確定性也緩和了市場(chǎng)情緒。”

　　已經(jīng)持續(xù)一周的僵局意味著，在達(dá)成妥協(xié)之前，歐佩克+將保持8月份的產(chǎn)量配額與7月份持平。 隨著全球石油需求持續(xù)反彈，這肯定會(huì)使市場(chǎng)更加吃緊。 IEA稱(chēng)，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的過(guò)剩石油庫(kù)存已經(jīng)低于歷史平均水平，如果歐佩克+不放松減產(chǎn)措施，我們可能會(huì)看到市場(chǎng)明顯吃緊，尤其是原油平衡吃緊。

　　這家總部位于巴黎的機(jī)構(gòu)說(shuō)，當(dāng)前的油價(jià)或更高的水平可能刺激電氣化，但高油價(jià)也可能減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，尤其是在大型新興市場(chǎng)。

　　美國(guó)汽油價(jià)格躍升至7年來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)。 IEA指出，歐洲各國(guó)的原油價(jià)格也在上漲，全球第三大原油進(jìn)口國(guó)印度的原油價(jià)格也達(dá)到了歷史高點(diǎn)。

　　“在歐佩克+生產(chǎn)政策明確之前，石油市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)持續(xù)波動(dòng)。 而且波動(dòng)性無(wú)助于確保有序和安全的能源轉(zhuǎn)型，也不符合生產(chǎn)者和消費(fèi)者的利益，”IEA在報(bào)告中如是說(shuō)。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　The IEA Warns Of Another Oil Price War

　　The oil market has been on edge for a week now, entertaining the possibility of a new price war within the OPEC+ alliance, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, adding that the current impasse is also threatening to derail the global economic recovery.

　　In June, global oil demand is estimated to have jumped by as much as 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 96.8 million bpd, the agency said in its closely watched Oil Market Report for July.

　　For the rest of the year, oil demand will continue to rebound thanks to solid economic growth, rising vaccination rates, and easing of restrictions in many economies, the IEA said.

　　Yet, the oil market is jittery because of the ongoing OPEC+ deadlock, with increased volatility that helps neither producers nor consumers, the agency noted.

　　“At the same time, the possibility of a market share battle, even if remote, is hanging over markets, as is the potential for high fuel prices to stoke inflation and damage a fragile economic recovery. The uncertainty over the potential global impact of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the coming months is also tempering sentiment,” the IEA’s monthly report says.

　　The already week-long stalemate means that until a compromise can be reached, OPEC+ will leave production quotas in August flat compared to July’s levels. This will surely tighten the market much more as global oil demand continues to rebound. The excess oil inventories in developed economies are already below historical averages, and without OPEC+ easing its production cuts, we could see a significantly tighter market with especially tight crude oil balances, the IEA said.

　　Oil prices at current or higher levels could incentivize electrification, but high prices could also slow down the economic recovery, especially in large emerging markets, the Paris-based agency said.

　　Prices at the pump jumped to a seven-year high in the United States. They are also rising across Europe, and reached all-time highs in India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, the IEA noted.

　　“Oil markets are likely to remain volatile until there is clarity on OPEC+ production policy. And volatility does not help ensure orderly and secure energy transitions – nor is it in the interest of either producers or consumers,” said the agency.

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