據(jù)Rigzone7月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，對(duì)汽油、柴油/汽油和噴氣式飛機(jī)/煤油等輕產(chǎn)品的需求在很大程度上推動(dòng)了煉油廠的利用。即使是在能源轉(zhuǎn)型延遲的情況下，輕產(chǎn)品需求也將在本世紀(jì)中葉趨于平穩(wěn)。

　　全球咨詢公司麥肯錫公司在其最新報(bào)告《2035年全球下游展望》中如是總結(jié)。根據(jù)研究，假設(shè)目前的趨勢(shì)，到2035年，輕產(chǎn)品需求將比2019年的水平每天減少280萬桶。麥肯錫預(yù)測(cè)，如果能源轉(zhuǎn)型加速，這一時(shí)期的需求下降將更為劇烈，達(dá)到1170萬桶/日。

　　該咨詢公司預(yù)計(jì)，歐洲和北美的輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)品需求將大幅下降，但它指出，在能源轉(zhuǎn)型延遲的情況下，到2030年，非洲地區(qū)的需求可能會(huì)增長(zhǎng)100萬桶/日。

　　麥肯錫表示，全球輕型產(chǎn)品需求的整體下降歸因于以下因素：

　　（1）電動(dòng)汽車的普及

　　（2）低排放航空和船舶燃料的效率提高和吸收

　　（3）增加塑料需求減少和回收

　　（4）減少可再生能源和存儲(chǔ)成本

　　（5）住宅供熱電氣化

　　（6）歐盟中低溫供熱電氣化。

　　鑒于上述情況，全球煉油行業(yè)是否正在發(fā)生危機(jī)？麥肯錫認(rèn)為，事實(shí)并非如此。該公司聲稱，盡管該行業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)將在某些地區(qū)收縮，但“在所有情況下都將保持非常大的規(guī)模”。此外，其加速能源轉(zhuǎn)型案例預(yù)計(jì)，到2035年，全球煉油行業(yè)仍將生產(chǎn)9400萬桶/日的液體。

　　麥肯錫資深專家蒂姆·菲茨吉本（Tim Fitzgibbon）評(píng)論說：“下游世界正在迅速變化，煉油廠必須適應(yīng)這種變化，以增強(qiáng)韌性。”首先是核心煉油和零售業(yè)務(wù)——通過擁抱數(shù)字化，潛在地投資于脫碳，更好地融入石化行業(yè)——然后是更廣泛的投資組合。”

　　Fitzgibbon確定了煉油商的其他機(jī)會(huì)領(lǐng)域。

　　他總結(jié)道：“許多煉油商可以通過將投資投向新興市場(chǎng)和價(jià)值鏈下游，來獲取增長(zhǎng)的空間。他們還應(yīng)該考慮在新的價(jià)值池，包括新能源服務(wù)、新的流動(dòng)性和先進(jìn)燃料上下大賭注。這些轉(zhuǎn)變對(duì)于實(shí)現(xiàn)每一分錢的潛在盈利能力至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)楫a(chǎn)品和地域市場(chǎng)組合的轉(zhuǎn)變超出了人們的認(rèn)識(shí)。”

　　壽琳玲 編譯自 Rigzone

　　Is the Refining Sector in Crisis?

　　Demand for light products such as gasoline, diesel/gasoil, and jet/kero largely drives refinery utilization. Even in the case of a delayed energy transition, light product demand will plateau by the middle of this decade.

　　So concludes global consultancy McKinsey & Company in its new report “Global downstream outlook to 2035.” According to the research, light product demand will fall by 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2019 levels by 2035, assuming current trends. If the energy transition accelerates, the demand decline during the period will be a more dramatic 11.7 million bpd, McKinsey predicts.

　　The consultancy foresees a particularly sharp drop in light product demand in Europe and North America, but it points out the one region – Africa – could actually see demand grow by 1 million bpd by 2030 under a delayed energy transition.

　　McKinsey noted that it attributes the overall global decline in light product demand to the following factors:

　　uptake of electric vehicles

　　efficiency gains and uptake of low-emission aviation and marine fuels

　　increased plastics demand reduction and recycling

　　reduced renewables and storage costs

　　residential heat electrification

　　electrification of European Union low- and medium-temperature heat.

　　Given the above scenario, is a crisis underway in the global refining sector? According to McKinsey, it is not. The firm asserts the industry, though projected to contract in some regions, will likely remain “very large in all scenarios.” Moreover, its accelerated energy transition case projects the global refining sector will still produce 94 million bpd of liquids in 2035.

　　“The downstream world is changing rapidly, and refiners must adapt to build in resilience,” commented McKinsey Senior Expert Tim Fitzgibbon. “First in core refining and retail operations – by embracing digitalization, and potentially investing in decarbonization and better integrating into petrochemicals – and then within the wider portfolio.”

　　Fitzgibbon identified additional areas of opportunity for refiners.

　　“Many refiners can capture pockets of growth by directing investments both into emerging markets and further down the value chain,” he concluded. “They should also consider placing big bets on emerging value pools including new energy services, new mobility, and advanced fuels. These shifts are essential to achieving every penny of potential profitability as the product and geographical market mix shifts beyond recognition.”

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