據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月16日消息稱，國(guó)家能源署周四表示，在經(jīng)歷了 2020 年的低迷之后，今年全球電力需求增長(zhǎng)如此之快，以至于即使可再生能源發(fā)電的持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)也不足以滿足這一需求，并警告稱煤炭發(fā)電量將激增并威脅減排努力。

　　IEA在周四公布的半年度電力市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中稱，今年全球電力需求預(yù)計(jì)將比 2020 年的水平猛增 5%，而2020年受疫情影響，電力消耗下降約1%。

　　該機(jī)構(gòu)還表示，由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，全球電力需求預(yù)計(jì)在2022年還將增長(zhǎng)4%。

　　IEA 表示，盡管可再生能源發(fā)電勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁，但僅憑可再生能源還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法滿足全球不斷增長(zhǎng)的電力需求。這意味著近一半的電力需求增長(zhǎng)將由化石燃料發(fā)電來(lái)滿足，尤其是煤。

　　IEA表示，亞太地區(qū)，尤其是中國(guó)和印度，將成為電力需求增長(zhǎng)的最大貢獻(xiàn)者。

　　根據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)的估計(jì)，化石燃料發(fā)電今年將滿足45%的新增需求，明年將滿足40%的新增需求，而核能將填補(bǔ)全球電力需求增長(zhǎng)的剩余部分。因此，2019年和2020年都有所下降的電力行業(yè)的碳排放預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年上升3.5%，2022年上升2.5%，明年達(dá)到歷史最高水平。

　　盡管可再生能源在增長(zhǎng)，但綠色能源發(fā)電量的年增長(zhǎng)僅在2019年和2020年超過(guò)了電力需求的增長(zhǎng)，但這是由于這兩年的需求非常緩慢或下降。IEA表示，這表明“可再生能源超過(guò)電力行業(yè)其它領(lǐng)域尚未成為新常態(tài)。”

　　IEA能源市場(chǎng)和安全事務(wù)主任Keisuke Sadamori說(shuō)：“可再生能源在世界許多地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)令人印象深刻，但要讓我們?cè)诒臼兰o(jì)中葉實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放，它仍未達(dá)到所需的水平。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的反彈，我們看到化石燃料發(fā)電的數(shù)量激增。”

　　曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　IEA: Renewables Growth Can’t Meet Surging Electricity Demand

　　Global power demand is rising so fast this year after the 2020 slump that even the continued strong growth of renewable electricity generation will not be enough to meet it, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, warning that coal power generation will jump and threaten efforts of emissions reduction.

　　This year, global electricity demand is expected to surge by 5 percent from the levels of 2020, when power consumption fell by around 1 percent due to the effects of the pandemic, the IEA said in its semi-annual Electricity Market Report published on Thursday.

　　Thanks to the global economic recovery, electricity demand worldwide is also expected to rise by another 4 percent in 2022, the agency added.

　　Despite the strong momentum of renewable power generation, renewables alone will not be anywhere close to meeting with rising global power demand, the IEA said. This means that nearly half of the rise in electricity demand will be met by power generation from fossil fuels, most notably coal.

　　The Asia Pacific region, China and India in particular, will be the largest contributors to rising electricity demand, the IEA said.

　　According to the agency’s estimates, fossil fuel electricity generation is set to cover 45 percent of additional demand this year and 40 percent next year, while nuclear power would make up the rest of the increase in global power demand. As a result, carbon emissions from the electricity sector – which fell in both 2019 and 2020 – are expected to rise by 3.5 percent in 2021 and by 2.5 percent in 2022, reaching an all-time high next year.

　　Despite the growth in renewables, the annual rise in green energy generation outpaced the growth in electricity demand only in 2019 and 2020, but it was due to very slow or declining demand in those years. This suggests that “renewables outpacing the rest of the electricity sector is not yet the new normal,” the IEA said.

　　“Renewable power is growing impressively in many parts of the world, but it still isn’t where it needs to be to put us on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. “As economies rebound, we’ve seen a surge in electricity generation from fossil fuels,” Sadamori added.?