據(jù)油價網(wǎng)8月4日消息，經(jīng)過幾個月的不確定性，隨著歐佩克繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)，以及新冠疫情的限制措施重新生效，2021年的石油需求似乎終于趨于穩(wěn)定，價格和需求將繼續(xù)增長。隨著Delta變異毒株在7月份變得更加突出，最初是在印度和英國，然后逐漸在全球其他國家，許多國家被迫重新進入封鎖狀態(tài)，或經(jīng)歷了工作和行動的其他限制。這導(dǎo)致一些專家猜測，面對全球限制旅行和工業(yè)的限制，石油和天然氣需求將不可避免地再次下降。

　　然而，隨著英國在7月中旬取消所有限制，以及其他幾個國家繼續(xù)放松封鎖，預(yù)期中的需求下降對行業(yè)的打擊沒有預(yù)期的那么嚴重。

　　由于疫苗的成功推出以及全球工作和旅行活動的增加，布倫特原油在7月份出現(xiàn)了第四個月的上漲。隨著北美和歐洲繼續(xù)開展疫苗接種工作，國際航空和當?shù)毓仿眯械内厔萁K于開始升溫，導(dǎo)致對石油產(chǎn)品的需求飆升。

　　雖然美國石油公司在疫情期間控制了產(chǎn)量，但隨著需求持續(xù)上升，這種趨勢可能會發(fā)生變化。美國銀行財富管理版塊高級投資策略師Rob Haworth表示:“美國會表現(xiàn)更多供應(yīng)反應(yīng)，這只是時間問題，而不是是否問題。”

　　此外，在經(jīng)歷了數(shù)月的大幅減產(chǎn)后，歐佩克+的產(chǎn)量在7月份達到了15個月以來的最高水平，由于沙特阿拉伯同意根據(jù)全球需求放松減產(chǎn)，因此平均產(chǎn)量為 2672 萬桶/日。

　　德國商業(yè)銀行的Carsten Fritsch解釋了與新冠疫情有關(guān)的需求趨勢的一個重要變化，這可能意味著兩者不再密不可分。他表示:“多數(shù)預(yù)測仍預(yù)計今年下半年需求將強勁增長。換句話說，很容易相信石油市場已經(jīng)學(xué)會了與病毒共存。”

　　盡管隨著限制措施的實施和取消，全球范圍內(nèi)的需求可能會繼續(xù)下降，但疫情似乎不再是全球需求殺手。

　　在印度，盡管新冠病例不斷，但石油需求仍在上升。事實上，在上周末，印度的燃料需求見頂，汽油消費達到了疫情前的水平，以應(yīng)對全國各地放松的疫情限制。

　　7月，印度國有燃料公司銷售了237萬噸石油，比2019年7月疫情前的銷售增長了3.56%。2020年柴油銷量也增長了12.36%，達到545萬噸。

　　由于亞洲推動著全球石油需求，并有望在未來10年成為主要市場，中國和印度對全球需求水平有著重大影響。然而，隨著歐洲和美國聲明他們正在學(xué)習(xí)適應(yīng)新冠疫情，亞洲石油需求的變化與歷史悠久的市場更大的穩(wěn)定性相抵消，這意味著石油需求的增長將在2021年持續(xù)增長。

　　裘寅 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Has The Oil Market Learned To Live With Covid?

　　After a few uncertain months, as OPEC oil cuts continued and Covid restrictions came back into place, oil demand for 2021 finally seems stable, with price and demand increases set to continue. As the Delta variant became more prominent in July, initially in India and the U.K.

　　and then gradually across the rest of the globe, many countries were forced back into lockdown or experienced other restrictions to work and movement. This led several experts to speculate that oil and gas demand would inevitably be driven down once again in the face of global restrictions limiting travel and industry. However, as the U.K. reduced all restrictions in mid-July, and several other countries continue to ease lockdowns, this anticipated dip in demand did not hit the industry as hard as expected.

　　Brent crude posted a fourth monthly gain in July, as oil demand grew faster than supply thanks to a successful vaccine rollout and the increase in work and travel activities worldwide. As vaccine efforts in North America and Europe continue, international air and local road travel trends are finally picking up, sending demand for petroleum products soaring.

　　While American oil firms have kept production in check through the course of the pandemic, this trend is likely to change as demand continues to rise. Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management stated, “It’s a matter of when, not if, before we see more of a supply response in the U.S.”

　　In addition, after months of steep output cuts, OPEC+ production reached a 15-month high in July, pumping an average of 26.72 million bpd as Saudi Arabia agreed to ease cuts in line with global demand.

　　Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank explained an important shift in the demand trend in relation to the coronavirus, which could mean the two are no longer inextricably linked. "Most forecasts are still predicting robust growth in demand in the second half of the year," as "It is easy to believe that the oil market has learnt to live with the virus, in other words.", he stated.

　　Even though some dips are likely to continue around the world, as restrictions come in and out of place, the pandemic no longer seems to be the universal demand killer.

　　While in India, despite the ongoing challenges of continued Covid-19 cases, oil demand is rising. In fact, at the end of last week, India’s fuel demand peaked as petrol consumption reached pre-pandemic levels in response to easing pandemic restrictions across the country.

　　State-owned fuel companies sold 2.37 million tonnes of petroleum in July, a 3.56 percent increase on pre-pandemic sales in July 2019. Diesel sales also increased, by 12.36 percent to 5.45 million tonnes, on 2020.

　　With Asia driving global oil demand and expected to be the main market over the next decade, China and India have a significant impact on global demand levels. However, with Europe and the U.S. making the statement that they are learning to live with the coronavirus, changes in Asian oil needs are countered with greater stability in long-established markets meaning the increasing oil demand is set to continue through 2021.

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