? 沙特阿拉伯日前授出賈富拉大氣田的首份大型合同

? 沙特王國(guó)的目標(biāo)是到2030年前成為世界第三大天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)  

? 沙特阿拉伯在賈富拉大氣田田開(kāi)采頁(yè)巖氣時(shí)面臨一系列重大挑戰(zhàn)  

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)刊發(fā)西蒙·沃特金斯博士文章表示，由于沙特計(jì)劃在2030年前成為世界上第3大天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)，甚至可能成為一個(gè)天然氣凈出口國(guó)，沙特阿拉伯日前授出了賈富拉頁(yè)巖氣盆地的第一份大型合同。賈富拉頁(yè)巖氣盆地?fù)?jù)說(shuō)是除美國(guó)以外的世界上最大的頁(yè)巖氣盆地。

這反過(guò)來(lái)——如果是真實(shí)的話——將使沙特阿拉伯能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)其預(yù)期的目標(biāo)，即國(guó)內(nèi)需求的一半電力來(lái)自天然氣，另一半電力來(lái)自可再生能源，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)其2060年溫室氣體凈零排放目標(biāo)。

然而，正如我在關(guān)于全球石油市場(chǎng)的新書(shū)中深入分析的那樣，沙特阿拉伯過(guò)去關(guān)于其石油工業(yè)的聲明一直被高度夸大，因此，沙特阿拉伯有關(guān)其天然氣和凈零項(xiàng)目的評(píng)論也應(yīng)受到懷疑。這再一次證明了這一點(diǎn)——尤其專注于其天然氣和凈零目標(biāo)——沙特阿拉伯最近被指游說(shuō)聯(lián)合國(guó)降低迅速遠(yuǎn)離化石燃料的必要性。

寬泛的說(shuō)，沙特阿拉伯賈富拉頁(yè)巖氣盆地地下估計(jì)至少蘊(yùn)藏200萬(wàn)億標(biāo)準(zhǔn)立方英尺的天然氣，盆地覆蓋面積約為1.7萬(wàn)平方公里。 主要開(kāi)發(fā)商沙特阿拉伯國(guó)家石油公司（沙特阿美）預(yù)計(jì)，賈富拉大氣田的天然氣日產(chǎn)量將從2024年-2025年的約2億標(biāo)準(zhǔn)立方英尺增加到2030年前的22億標(biāo)準(zhǔn)立方英尺的可持續(xù)產(chǎn)量。 此外，這個(gè)項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)還將日產(chǎn)4.18億立方英尺的乙烷和約63萬(wàn)桶的天然氣液體和凝析油，用于沙特阿拉伯的石化工業(yè)。 據(jù)沙特阿美稱，該公司的頁(yè)巖氣項(xiàng)目將取代大約50萬(wàn)桶的原油日產(chǎn)量，其中賈富拉開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的最高日產(chǎn)量約為30萬(wàn)桶。 除了日前最初授出的100億美元的合同外，賈富拉開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目在2030年前還將獲得至少580億美元的投資。 

那么，所有這些措施是否能使沙特阿拉伯實(shí)現(xiàn)上述既定目標(biāo)呢? 答案是否定的。首先，無(wú)論是從技術(shù)角度還是從成本角度來(lái)看，在用于沙特阿拉伯頁(yè)巖氣開(kāi)發(fā)的天然氣處理廠建成之前，沙特阿拉伯需要將大量海水脫鹽，這是一個(gè)棘手問(wèn)題。的確，沙特阿拉伯在鉆井行業(yè)使用脫鹽設(shè)備已有多年，但該國(guó)的頁(yè)巖氣計(jì)劃將是另一種情況。沙特阿美最近要求當(dāng)?shù)睾蛧?guó)際公司投標(biāo)在賈富拉頁(yè)巖氣田建設(shè)一個(gè)全面的海水淡化廠項(xiàng)目，這就表明了這一點(diǎn)。早些時(shí)候的招標(biāo)要求已被取消，而這一次的招標(biāo)要求是一個(gè)減少20%產(chǎn)能的海水脫鹽廠。 這也是一個(gè)事實(shí)，根據(jù)沙特阿美的數(shù)據(jù)，賈富拉頁(yè)巖氣壓裂作業(yè)的深度要比美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣壓裂作業(yè)的深度深得多，沙特頁(yè)巖氣壓裂作業(yè)的深度在大約9000到10000英尺，而美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣壓裂作業(yè)的深度在3000到4000英尺，這使得沙特阿拉伯的頁(yè)巖氣壓裂過(guò)程更加昂貴。沙特阿美的消息人士表示，這可以通過(guò)同時(shí)開(kāi)采其他資源(尤其是乙烷)來(lái)部分抵消壓裂成本，但目前這仍是一個(gè)推測(cè)。

在硬氣體產(chǎn)量方面，還有更多的問(wèn)題。根據(jù)沙特阿美的數(shù)據(jù)，賈富拉大氣田估計(jì)有200萬(wàn)億立方英尺的頁(yè)巖氣儲(chǔ)量，這個(gè)數(shù)字應(yīng)該考慮到所有其它能源儲(chǔ)量的估計(jì)。與此同時(shí)，沙特阿美的天然氣儲(chǔ)量估計(jì)約為233.8萬(wàn)億立方英尺，出于本文分析的目的，我們可以在相同的基礎(chǔ)上假設(shè)同樣的情況。沙特阿美計(jì)劃在2024年 - 2025年投產(chǎn)賈富拉大氣田，到2036年前達(dá)到日產(chǎn)22億標(biāo)準(zhǔn)立方英尺的天然氣。去年，在沒(méi)有投產(chǎn)賈富拉大氣田的情況下，沙特阿美日產(chǎn)89億標(biāo)準(zhǔn)立方英尺的天然氣。如加上賈富拉大氣田，這將使沙特阿美名義天然氣日總產(chǎn)量達(dá)到111億標(biāo)準(zhǔn)立方英尺。 然而，至關(guān)重要的是，即使目前有89億標(biāo)準(zhǔn)立方英尺的天然氣日產(chǎn)量，除了大量的燃料油和柴油，沙特阿拉伯仍在每天燃燒大約40萬(wàn)桶原油用于發(fā)電。

所有其他因素保持相同，10億立方英尺的天然氣相當(dāng)于16.7萬(wàn)桶石油當(dāng)量，所以未來(lái)的賈富拉大氣田的22億立方英尺的天然氣日產(chǎn)量就相當(dāng)于36.74萬(wàn)桶石油當(dāng)量或36.74萬(wàn)桶原油。即使沙特阿美已經(jīng)提高的天然氣產(chǎn)量保持穩(wěn)定，這也不足以覆蓋目前沙特阿拉伯用于發(fā)電的原油數(shù)量(40萬(wàn)桶/天)。 因此，沙特阿拉伯關(guān)于轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣將對(duì)任何凈零溫室氣體排放目標(biāo)做出有意義的貢獻(xiàn)的聲明是不真實(shí)的。根據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)當(dāng)時(shí)的獨(dú)家分析，考慮到沙特阿拉伯在達(dá)成國(guó)際海事組織（IMO）遵守目標(biāo)方面的雙重協(xié)議，這一點(diǎn)就更加明顯。

而沙特阿拉伯聲稱自己將成為這樣一個(gè)頁(yè)巖氣生產(chǎn)大國(guó)，甚至有可能成為主要的天然氣凈出口國(guó)，這是怎么回事? 根據(jù)獨(dú)立行業(yè)對(duì)沙特阿拉伯人口變化和電力需求模式變化的估計(jì)，未來(lái)15年內(nèi)，沙特阿拉伯可能日需大約230億 - 250億立方英尺的天然氣產(chǎn)量，以滿足本國(guó)的電力和工業(yè)需求。相比之下，沙特阿美目前的天然氣峰值日產(chǎn)量為89億立方英尺，加上賈富拉大氣田的名義產(chǎn)量也只有111億立方英尺。 總之，即使賈富拉發(fā)現(xiàn)的天然氣質(zhì)量在天然氣發(fā)現(xiàn)史上是無(wú)與倫比的，如果直接從燃燒原油轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橹蝗紵烊粴?，沙特阿拉伯的發(fā)電部門仍將處于天然氣需求短缺的狀態(tài)。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng) 

原文如下：

Is Shale Gas A Gamechanger For Saudi Arabia?

·     The first major contracts for Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field were awarded last week

·     The Kingdom aims to become the third-largest natural gas producer in the world by 2030

·     Saudi Arabia faces a number of major challenges in exploiting gas from the Jafurah field

The first major contracts for Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah field – supposedly, the biggest shale gas field outside the U.S. – were awarded last week, as the Kingdom aims to become the third largest natural gas producer in the world by 2030, to the point where it could even become a net exporter of gas. This, in turn - if true - would allow Saudi to achieve its supposed aim of producing half of its electricity from gas and half from renewable energy sources in pursuit of its 2060 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target. However, as analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, Saudi Arabia’s statements on its oil sector in the past have been highly exaggerated – as without its oil power, the country has no real power at all – and consequently its comments about its gas and net zero projects should also be regarded with scepticism. This was again in evidence - specifically focused on its gas and net zero targets - when Saudi Arabia recently was alleged to have lobbied the United Nations to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels.

In broad terms, the Jafurah shale gas basin is estimated to have at least 200 trillion standard cubic feet (scf) of gas in place, across an area of some 17,000 square kilometres. Production of natural gas from the site is expected by its lead developer, Saudi Aramco, to increase from around 200 million standard cubic feet per day (scfd) in 2024/25 to a sustainable rate of 2.2 billion scfd of gas by 2030. In addition, the development is also expected to yield 418 million scfd of ethane and around 630,000 barrels per day of gas liquids and condensates, which are earmarked for use in the Kingdom’s petrochemicals sector. According to Aramco, the company’s shale gas programme will replace around 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production, with the Jafurah development accounting for about 300,000 bpd of that at peak production. Over and above the US$10 billion of contracts initially awarded last week, the Jafurah project will see at least another US$58 billion in investment by 2030.

So, will all of this enable Saudi Arabia to achieve its stated targets as above? No, is the short answer. To begin with, there are questions surrounding the sheer volume of seawater that will need to be desalinated before being used in the gas processing plants involved in the Kingdom’s shale gas drive, both from technical and cost perspectives. It is true that the Saudis have been using desalination equipment for many years in the drilling sector but the country’s shale gas initiatives will be of a different order. This was indicated by Aramco’s recent request for bids from local and international companies to build out a full-scale water desalination plant project in the Jafurah shale gas field. An earlier request for bids was cancelled, and the request this time around is for a desalination plant with 20 percent less capacity. It is also a fact that the Jafurah shale gas fracks will occur at much deeper levels than the typically much shallower U.S. equivalents – at around 9,000 to 10,000 feet in the case of Saudi compared to around 3,000 to 4,000 feet in the U.S.’s case – according to Aramco data, making the process a lot more expensive. Aramco sources have stated that this can be offset in part by the other resources concomitantly extracted – notably ethane – but this remains speculative at this point. 

All other factors remaining equal, one billion cubic feet of gas equals 0.167 million barrels of oil equivalent, so 2.2 Bcf/d (the future Jafurah output) equals 0.3674 milliobarrels of oil equivalent, or 367,400 barrels. Therefore, the total projected new amount of gas to come from Jafurah is around 367,400 barrels per day, which is not even enough to cover the current amount of oil being (400,000 bpd) burned for power generation in Saudi Arabia, even if Aramco’s already elevated gas production holds steady. Therefore, Saudi’s statements that this move to gas will meaningfully contribute to any net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets are not true. This is even more obvious when factoring in Saudi’s double-dealings over hitting IMO-compliance targets, as exclusively analysed at the time by OilPrice.com.

And what of Saudi’s claims that it will become such a big producer of shale gas that it may even be able to become a major net exporter of gas? based on independent industry estimates on changing Saudi demographics and corollary changing power demand patterns, the Kingdom will probably need gas production of around 23-25 Bcf/d within the next 15 years just to cover its own power and industrial demand, compared to the 11.1 Bcf/d of Aramco’s current peak production added to the notional production from Jafurah. In sum, then, even if the quality of the Jafurah find is unparalleled in the history of gas finds, then Saudi would still be in deficit in its power generation sector if there was a straight switch from crude oil burning to gas-only burning. 

In terms of hard gas output numbers as well, there are more questions. According to Aramco’s figures, the Jafurah site has an estimated 200 trillion scf, a figure that should be taken in context of all other Saudi energy reserves estimates, but let us assume that it is true. In the meantime, Aramco has gas reserves supposedly of around 233.8 trillion scf, which for the purposes of this analysis, we may assume the same thing on the same basis. The plan is for Aramco to start production from Jafurah in 2024/25 and to reach 2.2 billion scfd of gas by 2036. Last year – without Jafurah - Aramco produced 8.9 billion scfd of natural gas. This would give a notional total – with Jafurah - of 11.1 Bcf/d. Crucially, however, even with this current 8.9 Bcf/d of gas production in place, Saudi has been burning around 400,000 bpd of oil for power generation (on top of enormous actual volumes of fuel oil and diesel).