據(jù)OE網(wǎng)站12月14日報(bào)道，國際能源署(IEA)周二表示，疫情病例激增和奧密克戎(Omicron)變異毒株的出現(xiàn)將削弱全球石油需求，但更廣闊的前景是，產(chǎn)量增加將在本月超過需求，并將于明年飆升。
總部位于巴黎的IEA在其月度石油報(bào)告中表示，新的新冠疫情病例的激增預(yù)計(jì)將暫時(shí)放緩，但不會顛覆正在進(jìn)行的石油需求復(fù)蘇。與之前的新冠疫情相比，為阻止病毒傳播而采取的新遏制措施可能對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的影響比較小。
據(jù)IEA稱，隨著鉆探活動的增加，美國將連續(xù)第二個(gè)月成為產(chǎn)量增幅最大的國家。
明年，如果沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯所屬的歐佩克+集團(tuán)完全解除其商定的產(chǎn)量限制，則它們的年產(chǎn)量也可能創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。
明年全球石油日供應(yīng)量可能會驟增640萬桶，而今年增加150萬桶。
IEA將今明年的石油需求預(yù)測分別下調(diào)了10萬桶/日，主要是由于新的旅行限制對航空燃料使用的預(yù)期影響。
然而，道路運(yùn)輸和石化原料所用燃料的需求將繼續(xù)急劇上升。
在IEA做出上述預(yù)測的前一天，產(chǎn)油國組織歐佩克(OPEC)保持了對2021年和2022年的預(yù)測不變，稱奧密克戎變體對需求的影響將是“溫和而短暫的”。
IEA補(bǔ)充稱，2021年全球石油供應(yīng)量僅增加150萬桶/天，明年將增加640萬桶/天，至少到明年第四季度，供應(yīng)將超過需求。
郝芬 譯自 OE
原文如下：
IEA: Omicron Impact Aside, Oil Supply Set to Top Demand
A surge in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant will dent global demand for oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, but the broader picture is one of increasing output set to top demand this month and soar next year.
"The surge in new COVID-19 cases is expected to temporarily slow, but not upend, the recovery in oil demand that is underway," the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly oil report.
"New containment measures put in place to halt the spread of the virus are likely to have a more muted impact on the economy versus previous COVID waves," it said.
The United States will account for the single biggest increase in output for a second month running, the IEA said, as drilling picks up there.
Next year, Saudi Arabia and Russia could also set records for annual production if the OPEC+ group to which they both belong fully unwinds its agreed production curbs.
Global oil supply could then jump by 6.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year compared with a 1.5 million bpd increase in 2021.
The IEA lowered its forecast for oil demand this year and the next by 100,000 bpd each, mostly due to the expected blow to jet fuel use from new travel curbs.
Demand for fuels used in road transportation and petrochemical feedstock will continue to rise steeply, however.
The IEA predictions came a day after producer club OPEC kept its own outlook for 2021 and 2022 unchanged, saying the impact of the omicron variant on demand will be "mild and short-lived".
Global oil supply, up just 1.5 million bpd in 2021, will jump 6.4 million barrels per day next year, the IEA added, and supply will outpace demand through at least the fourth quarter of next year.
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