據美國鉆井網站報道，惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業研究公司(Fitch Solutions Country Risk&Industry research)的分析師們日前在發給美國鉆井網站Rigzone的一份新報告中透露了他們2022年全球油氣行業的關鍵主題。  

一個這樣的主題是預測明年上半年石油市場將從供應不足轉向供應過剩。惠譽解決方案分析師們認為，這一變化將導致油價走低，并可能導致歐佩克+和非歐佩克成員國之間的產量分化。 

分析師們在報告中表示：“盡管今年年底出現了奧密克戎毒株，但歐佩克+已證實，他們將繼續每月日增40萬桶原油產量。”

惠譽解決方案分析師們在報告中補充稱：“盡管有人擔心需求增長正在放緩，而奧密克戎毒株的影響仍不清楚，但這個主題再加上美國將在2022年初協調釋放戰略石油儲備的原油，人們屆時將看到更多的石油供應進入市場。”

惠譽解決方案分析師們指出，另一個主題是，預計美國在2022年的油氣產量將大幅攀升，原油、天然氣廠液體和其他液體日產量將達到145萬桶或同比增長8.5%。 

分析師們在報告中表示：“盡管頁巖行業的獨立上市公司對大幅增加投資持保留態度，但油氣產量還是走高了。”

相反，美國頁巖行業的大多數上市公司可能會通過分紅和股票回購來繼續關注股東的回報，而不是更大幅度的增加產量。 私營企業、技術進步和持續的鉆井效率將推動更高的增長。

惠譽解決方案分析師們繼續說道：“盡管在2021年，已開鉆但未完鉆井的數量有所下降，這可能針對的是產量最好和最高的地區，但我們預計，由于新探區的鉆井活動增加，效率的提高和已提高的初始產量將持續下去，而不是下降。”

投資將遠離上游 亞洲大國下游投資增加

惠譽解決方案分析師們在新報告還預測，全球油氣投資將從上游向低碳領域努力傾斜。  

報告說，“越來越多的上市公司將加大減少運營對氣候影響的承諾，這將使資本從傳統的上游投資轉向低碳投資。”

分析師們還指出，鑒于美國的氣候承諾、需求停滯以及老舊煉油廠利潤率前景不佳，長期以來認為亞洲大國將在2022年成為下游最大煉油國的觀點似乎已成定勢。  

惠譽解決方案分析師們表示：“美國為遏制氣候變化影響而加大的努力，將進一步增加對煉油廠的監管負擔。” 

他們補充稱：“對于煉油設備不太復雜的老煉油廠來說，由于合規成本預計將增加，這將迫使他們煉油利潤率下降。”

分析師們繼續說道，“另一方面，亞洲大國將從不斷增長的新生煉油能力以及政府在轉型環境法規以應對氣候變化方面更加支持中獲益。”

伍德麥肯茲全球上游展望

在近日發給美國鉆井網站的另一份聲明中，伍德麥肯茲上游研究副總裁弗雷澤·麥凱表示，全球上游行業將在2022年面臨“不確定性峰值”，現金流將達到創紀錄水平，但新油氣項目的審查過程將越來越嚴格。  

麥凱在聲明中表示，“在布倫特原油價格為每桶70美元左右的情況下，油氣現金流將接近歷史最高水平。 如果油價為每桶80美元，油氣現金流在稅后、資本支出后、融資前和股息基礎上將飆升至1萬億美元。”

“盡管如此，對許多利益相關者、甚至一些首席執行官來說，這個行業的風險大于其優勢。 這種緊張局勢將界定2022年。”

麥凱指出，在聯合國氣候變化框架公約第26屆締約方會議之前，為石油和天然氣融資變得越來越困難，并補充說，明年的壓力將會越來越大。 

麥凱說，“管理超過130萬億美元資產的金融機構已加入承諾凈零排放的格拉斯哥金融聯盟。我們將拭目以待，投資者的資金池將萎縮，借貸成本將上升，石油項目融資將變得更加困難。”

麥凱補充道，“但放貸將不會立即枯竭，而天然氣——尤其是與煤炭退役或CCS相關的天然氣——將幸免于最壞的情況。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Key Oil and Gas Themes for 2022|

Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research have revealed their “key” oil and gas themes for 2022 in a new report sent to Rigzone on Monday.

One such theme is a forecast that oil markets will shift from undersupply to oversupply in the first half of next year. The change should lead to lower oil prices and a potential divergence in production between OPEC+ and non-OPEC members, according to Fitch Solutions analysts.

“Despite the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021, OPEC+ have confirmed they will continue with a monthly production increase of 400,000 barrels per day,” the analysts stated in the report.

“This, combined with the coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves orchestrated by the U.S. over the early months of 2022, will see increased supply come onto the market despite concerns that demand growth is slowing and with the impact of Omicron still unclear,” the analysts added in the report.

Another theme is that U.S. output is expected to climb “substantially” in 2022 with crude, NGPL and other liquids production posting gains of 1.45 million barrels per day, or 8.5 percent year on year, Fitch Solutions analysts outlined.

“The move higher comes despite reticence from publicly-listed independents in the shale patch to substantially raise investment,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Instead, most publicly traded firms in the U.S. shale patch are likely to continue favoring shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks over more expansive production growth. Higher growth will be fueled by private firms, technology improvements and sustained drilling efficiency,” the analysts added.

“Despite the drawdown in drilled but uncompleted wells across 2021, which likely targeted the best and highest output areas, we expect efficiency gains and increased initial production rates to persist rather than decline as new acreage is drilled,” they continued.

Investment to Tilt Away from Upstream, China Downstream Rise

The report also projects that oil and gas investment will tilt away from upstream to low carbon efforts.

“Increasingly, publicly-listed firms will ramp up commitments to reduce climate impacts from operations. This will divert capital from traditional upstream investments to low carbon investments,” Fitch Solutions analysts said.

The analysts also noted that the long-held view of the biggest country in Asia’s emergence as the top downstream refiner looks poised to take place in 2022, in light of U.S. climate commitments, stagnating demand and the poor outlook for refinery margins for older facilities.

“Increased efforts in the U.S. to stem the impacts of climate change will further increase the regulatory burden on refineries,” the analysts said.

“In the case of older facilities with less complex refining slates, it will force margins lower as the cost of compliance is expected to increase,” they added.

“The biggest country in Asia, on the other hand, will benefit from the younger age of refining capacity and a more supportive government hand in transitioning environmental regulations to combat climate change,” the analysts continued.

Wood Mackenzie Global Upstream Outlook

In a separate statement sent to Rigzone on Monday, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president of upstream research, Fraser McKay, said the upstream sector is going into 2022 facing “peak uncertainty”, with record cash flows but increasing scrutiny.

“At a Brent price of around $70 per barrel, oil and gas cash flows will be at near-record levels. At $80 per barrel, it would soar towards $1 trillion (on a post-tax, post-capex, pre-financing and dividends basis),” McKay said in the statement.

“Despite this, for many stakeholders and even some chief executives, the sector’s risks outweigh its upsides. This tension will define 2022,” McKay added in the statement.

McKay noted that financing oil and gas was getting harder before COP26 and added that the pressure will ratchet up next year.

“Institutions with over $130 trillion of capital under management have joined the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. Watch for the pool of backers to shrink, borrowing costs to increase and project financing for oil to get harder,” he said.

“But lending will not dry up immediately. And gas – especially where aligned with coal retirement or CCS – will be spared the worst,” McKay added.