據伍德麥肯茲1月25日報道，2021年對金屬和采礦業者提出了一個特殊的挑戰，即如何理解混亂的價格波動和一系列令人眼花繚亂的市場信號。預計2022年將從2021年的狂熱節奏中獲得一些喘息機會，當然，事情不會在一夜之間改變。

從經濟角度來看，今年金屬和采礦業的極端情況似乎將有所減少，但不確定性將不斷擴大。如果說2021年是反彈的一年，那么2022年很可能是重新平衡的一年。許多證據表明，2022年需求增長會降低，激措施將減弱，財政和貨幣政策將收緊，供應鏈將恢復。在這種環境下，商品價格可能會從2021年的異常高點回落。

對金屬和礦業公司來說，決策、脫碳和紀律很重要。

對于多元化礦商來說，2022年將是關鍵的一年。在COP26會議之后，礦業公司更加敏銳地意識到外界對該行業的看法，以及由此帶來的挑戰。

然而，世界需要礦業公司在2022年產出比以往任何時候都多的材料。礦業公司可以通過加速生產低碳技術的基礎材料，開啟一條更快的脫碳道路。那么，礦商會將自己定位為變革的推動者嗎？

金屬與礦業公司2022年最需要關注的五件事，即煤炭資產的決策時間、針對并購期待有一個慎重的解決方法、尋找新領域、收緊脫碳目標而不是預算、成本膨脹和價格下降限制了股息增長。

王佳晶 摘譯自 伍德麥肯茲

原文如下：

What are the key trends to watch in the metals and mining industry in 2022?

Last year presented a unique challenge to metals and mining players: how to make sense of disorientating price volatility and a dizzying array of market signals. We expect 2022 to provide some respite from the frenetic pace of 2021 – but of course things won't change overnight.

From an economic perspective, it looks set to be a year of narrowing extremes but widening uncertainty for the metals and mining sector. If last year was all about rebound, then 2022 could well be characterised by rebalance. Much of the evidence points to a year of lower demand growth. Look for stimulus to wane, fiscal and monetary policy to tighten, and supply chains to refill. In this environment, commodity prices could settle from the extraordinary highs of 2021.

metals and mining corporates: decisions, decarbonisation and discipline

For the diversified miners this will be a pivotal year. In the wake of COP26, mining companies are even more acutely aware of the outside perception of the sector, and the challenge that represents.

Yet the world needs mining companies to shift more material than ever before in 2022. Miners can unlock a faster decarbonisation pathway by accelerating production of the very building blocks of low-carbon technology. Will they position themselves as agents of change?

five things to look for in 2022 for our view on:

Decision time for coal assets

M&A – expect a measured approach

Miners look for new domains

Tightening decarbonisation targets, not budgets

Cost inflation and lower prices to limit dividend growth