據(jù)世界石油1月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)也在預(yù)計(jì)今年晚些時(shí)候原油價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶100美元的銀行之列。

根據(jù)給客戶的一份研究報(bào)告顯示，該銀行預(yù)計(jì)庫存在2021年大幅下降后，到今年年底將進(jìn)一步下滑。 備用供應(yīng)能力將從目前的每天340萬桶縮減至200萬桶。 隨著綠色倡議的進(jìn)展，預(yù)計(jì)到本世紀(jì)二十年代末，為提高石油行業(yè)供應(yīng)能力而進(jìn)行的投資將減少30%。

此前，該銀行認(rèn)為，一旦油價(jià)接近每桶90美元，需求就開始下降。現(xiàn)在，包括martinrats在內(nèi)的分析師在報(bào)告中稱，由于石油產(chǎn)品的消費(fèi)具有彈性，該公司預(yù)計(jì)損耗將處于更高水平。例如，到今年夏天，航空燃料需求預(yù)計(jì)將增加150萬桶/天，而谷歌Mobility的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與去年相比，航空需求大幅增加。

本周稍早，全球最大的投資銀行之一高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油價(jià)格也將因供應(yīng)嚴(yán)重不足，在第三季觸及100美元。

郝芬 譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude at $100 by Q3

Add Morgan Stanley to the list of banks expecting crude to reach $100 a barrel later this year. 

The bank expects stockpiles to slide even lower by the end of the year, after falling substantially in 2021, according to a research note to clients. Spare supply capacity will shrink to 2 million barrels a day from the current 3.4 million. Investment to boost supply capacity in the oil industry is expected to shrivel 30% by the end of this decade as green initiatives progress.

Previously, the bank saw demand erosion starting once the global benchmark neared $90 a barrel. Now, it sees attrition happening at a higher level, because consumption in oil products has been resilient, the analysts, including Martijn Rats said in the note. For instance, jet demand is projected to grow 1.5 million barrels a day by this summer, while Google Mobility data reflects a sharp increase from the year prior.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s top investment banks, said it saw Brent prices reaching $100 also in the third quarter because of a large supply deficit.

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