據(jù)世界石油網(wǎng)報道，全球領(lǐng)先數(shù)據(jù)分析公司GlobalData 4月8日發(fā)布的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國原油產(chǎn)量已從第一波疫情和短暫價格戰(zhàn)期間的低點大幅回升。 

據(jù)GlobalData稱，美國今年2月的原油平均日產(chǎn)量約為1150萬桶，比2020年5月的970萬桶日產(chǎn)量增加了19%。

根據(jù)GlobalData的最新報告“美國本土2021下半年非常規(guī)產(chǎn)量”，美國本土頁巖遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)量在2020年5月至2022年2月期間增長了25%。 然而，這個日產(chǎn)量仍比2019年12月疫情前水平的930萬桶低8%左右。

GlobalData油氣分析師普拉尼克表示：“由于大多數(shù)國家放松了此前實施的限制措施，未來幾個月全球原油需求預(yù)計將上升。”“由于需求的增長，美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計也將進(jìn)一步增長，并有可能在2023年前達(dá)到疫情前的水平。”

2020年的行業(yè)低迷迫使運營商削減資本支出，這也導(dǎo)致了美國在用鉆機數(shù)量的大幅下降。最近，基準(zhǔn)西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)期貨在2022年2月的平均價格為每桶91.64美元。 美國能源信息署(EIA)預(yù)計，今年3月，WTI期貨均價將達(dá)到113美元，并可能維持在這一區(qū)間，這取決于軍事沖突的持續(xù)時間。 WTI的這些高水平將加速增加美國頁巖的在用鉆機數(shù)量，截至2022年2月，美國頁巖在用鉆機數(shù)量在一年內(nèi)增加了近60%，達(dá)到了574部。  

普拉尼克說：“由于預(yù)計今年全球石油需求將超過供應(yīng)，油價甚至在軍事沖突開始前就呈上升趨勢。自那以后，由于對西方制裁的擔(dān)憂，包括石油巨頭英國石油公司、殼牌公司和埃克森美孚公司在內(nèi)的幾家公司決定退出大國石油和天然氣行業(yè)。 由于當(dāng)前的高油價使得頁巖油鉆井活動具有很高的利潤，一些公司可能會將他們的資本(之前分配給大國地區(qū)的資產(chǎn))轉(zhuǎn)移到美國的頁巖上。 這將進(jìn)一步提升美國本土的油氣評價和開發(fā)活動。”  

李峻 編譯自 世界石油網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Globaldata: U.S. shale production should stay robust following strong 2021 recovery

Crude oil production in the U.S. has recovered considerably from the lows seen during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the brief price war，says GlobalData, a data and analytics company.

The country produced approximately 11.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of crude oil in February 2022, a 19% gain over the May 2020 production of 9.7 MMbpd, GlobalData says.

According to GlobalData’s latest report, “Unconventional Production in the US Lower 48, H2-2021,” oil production from the U.S. Lower 48 (L48) shale plays has risen by 25% during May 2020 to February 2022. However, it is still around 8% below the pre-pandemic levels of 9.3 MMbpd produced in December 2019. 

“As most countries have eased COVID-19 restrictions that were in place earlier, global crude oil demand is anticipated to rise over the coming months,” said Ravindra Puranik, oil & gas analyst at GlobalData. “In line with this demand growth, the U.S. shale oil production is also expected to grow further and could potentially reach the pre-pandemic levels by 2023.”

The industry downturn in 2020 had compelled operators to cut down their capital spending, which also led to a significant drop in the US rig count. Recently, the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were averaging $91.64 in February 2022. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects WTI futures to average at $113 in March 2022 and possibly remain in this range depending on the duration of the ongoing military conflict. These high levels of WTI would accelerate rig additions in the US shales that have risen nearly 60% in one year to 574 as of February 2022.

“Oil prices were on an upward trend even before the start of the war as global demand was projected to outweigh supply in 2022,” Puranik said. “Since then, several companies, including oil majors BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil have decided to exit from the Russian oil and gas industry amid concerns over Western sanctions. Some of these companies may divert their capital—which was earlier allocated for assets—to the U.S. shales as the prevailing high prices make shale oil drilling highly profitable. This could further lift the hydrocarbon appraisal and development activity in the L48.”