據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng) 5月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，歐佩克+組織的六名消息人士周四對(duì)路透社表示，預(yù)計(jì)該組織下周在決定7月產(chǎn)量水平時(shí)，將批準(zhǔn)石油產(chǎn)量每月適度增長(zhǎng)。

自去年決定逐步恢復(fù)市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)以來(lái)，由沙特阿拉伯等領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的歐佩克+沒(méi)有改變路線，并每月將產(chǎn)量提高約40萬(wàn)桶/天，直到解除2020年4月全球疫情封鎖高峰期間宣布的所有1000萬(wàn)桶/天的減產(chǎn)。

歐佩克一直堅(jiān)持適度增產(chǎn)，即便是在油價(jià)因其關(guān)鍵成員國(guó)發(fā)生地緣政治沖突而飆升至每桶100美元之后。該組織說(shuō)，它認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)是一個(gè)平衡的市場(chǎng)，價(jià)格飆升是“地緣政治局勢(shì)”的結(jié)果。

5月初，歐佩克+同意維持其生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃不變，目標(biāo)是在6月將原油產(chǎn)量提高43.2萬(wàn)桶/天，此舉被市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)期。這是自地緣政治沖突發(fā)生以來(lái)的第三次歐佩克+會(huì)議。連續(xù)第三個(gè)月，歐佩克在又一次創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的短時(shí)間會(huì)議上的新聞稿中寫(xiě)道：“人們注意到，持續(xù)的石油市場(chǎng)基本面和對(duì)前景的共識(shí)指向一個(gè)平衡的市場(chǎng)。”

該聯(lián)盟拒絕了主要石油進(jìn)口國(guó)要求采取更多措施降低高油價(jià)的呼吁。

沙特外交大臣本周在達(dá)沃斯談到了增加供應(yīng)的呼吁，他說(shuō)：“這比把桶運(yùn)到市場(chǎng)要復(fù)雜得多。”

他補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“我們的評(píng)估是，目前的石油供應(yīng)實(shí)際上是相對(duì)平衡的。”

一位消息人士在談到即將于6月2日舉行的會(huì)議時(shí)告訴路透社：“為什么要改變完美的做法?”

該消息人士補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“我們將宣布，我們將增加43.2萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量，即使我們不再有能力這么做。”

雖然歐佩克+堅(jiān)持其每月適度增產(chǎn)的政策，但許多成員國(guó)并未按配額生產(chǎn)，該組織的總產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為每日低于配額約250萬(wàn)桶。

季廷偉 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Unlikely To Boost Oil Production More Than Planned

The OPEC+ group is expected to rubberstamp next week its moderate monthly increases in oil production when it decides output levels for July, six sources at OPEC+ told Reuters on Thursday.

OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, has not changed course since it decided last year to gradually return supply to the market, and raise production by around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) every month until it unwinds all the 10 million bpd cuts announced in April 2020 at the peak COVID lockdowns globally. 

The alliance has been sticking to modest production rises even after oil prices spiked to more than $100 per barrel after a key member of the pact. The group says that it sees the market as a balanced one, and price surges are the result of the “geopolitical situation.”

In early May, OPEC+ agreed to leave its production plan unchanged, aiming to boost crude oil production in June by 432,000 bpd, in a move widely expected by the market. This was the third OPEC+ meeting since the war. For a third consecutive month, OPEC’s press release on another record short meeting read that “it was noted that continuing oil market fundamentals and the consensus on the outlook pointed to a balanced market.”

The alliance has resisted calls from major oil importers to do more to lower the high oil prices.

Commenting on the calls to boost supply more than planned, Saudi Foreign Minister,  said in Davos this week that “It’s much more complex than just bringing barrels to the market.”

“Our assessment is that actually oil supply right now is relatively in balance,” the minister added, as carried by Bloomberg. 

Commenting on the upcoming meeting on June 2, one source told Reuters: “Why change what works perfectly?”

“We will announce that we are going to increase our production by 432,000 bpd even if we are no longer able to do so,” the source added.

While OPEC+ is sticking to its policy of modest monthly increases, many of its members are not pumping to their quotas and the group overall is estimated to be around 2.5 million bpd below its quota.