據(jù)今日油價(jià)5月30日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管股票市場(chǎng)和債券市場(chǎng)在過去兩個(gè)月里暴跌，但美元卻憑借其“全球安全港”的地位不斷走強(qiáng)。

美元和石油價(jià)格經(jīng)常是負(fù)相關(guān)的，因?yàn)槭褪且悦涝▋r(jià)的，這使得用其他貨幣購買石油相對(duì)更貴。

自3月底以來，油價(jià)和美元一直在上漲，達(dá)到2019年5月以來的最高正相關(guān)性。

對(duì)大多數(shù)投資而言，現(xiàn)在都是困難時(shí)期。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)和Nasdaq指數(shù)已連續(xù)七周下跌，而道瓊工業(yè)指數(shù)表現(xiàn)更糟，連跌八周，為1932年大蕭條以來最長連跌時(shí)間。今年以來，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)下跌了13.9%，納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)下跌了23.1%。與此同時(shí)，與2022年比特幣超過30%的跌幅相比，全球債券10%的跌幅看起來似乎是溫和的了。

但對(duì)美元來說，這是一段美妙的時(shí)期。

衡量美元兌一籃子六種全球貨幣匯率的美元指數(shù)目前徘徊在20年高點(diǎn)附近。自今年年初以來，美元指數(shù)上漲了8%，要知道，在過去12個(gè)月里，它上漲了14%。本月初，美元指數(shù)觸及105以上的20年高點(diǎn)，目前較峰值水平低了不到3%。美元兌單一貨幣表現(xiàn)更為驚人，即美元兌日?qǐng)A僅今年一年就升值了13%以上，兌英鎊在14個(gè)月里升值了36.30%。

但是強(qiáng)勢(shì)的美元并沒有阻止一種商品的發(fā)展，尤其是原油。

油價(jià)的牛市幾乎沒有注意到美元的上漲，并設(shè)法打破了原油與美元的歷史反向關(guān)聯(lián)，從而表明根據(jù)當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)基本面，原油仍有上漲空間。

通常情況下，美元價(jià)值與包括石油在內(nèi)的大多數(shù)大宗商品價(jià)格呈反比關(guān)系。從歷史上看，大宗商品價(jià)格往往在美元兌其他主要貨幣走強(qiáng)時(shí)下跌，在美元兌其他主要貨幣走弱時(shí)上漲。盡管這種相關(guān)性并不完美，但隨著時(shí)間的推移，美元和大宗商品價(jià)格之間往往存在顯著的反向關(guān)系。

自3月底以來，油價(jià)和美元一直在同一方向走高，并創(chuàng)下2019年5月以來的最高正相關(guān)性。

由于全球疫情削弱了原油需求，石油和美元之間通常的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系在2020年和2021年初保持不變。但許多分析師現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)，鑒于致密油市場(chǎng)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的更廣泛風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，這種積極聯(lián)系將持續(xù)下去。

瑞銀分析師Giovanni Staunovo曾表示，“考慮到閑置產(chǎn)能較低，未來可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)更大的供應(yīng)中斷，而石油需求可能會(huì)持續(xù)增加，我預(yù)計(jì)石油將主要受自身基本面因素推動(dòng)”。

鑒于目前原油交易價(jià)格在每桶115美元左右，摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)，布倫特原油第二季整體均價(jià)將達(dá)到每桶114美元，甚至一度飆升至每桶120美元以上。

另一個(gè)導(dǎo)致美元走強(qiáng)與油價(jià)脫節(jié)的因素是，當(dāng)前的能源危機(jī)對(duì)歐洲的打擊最為嚴(yán)重，MUFG新興市場(chǎng)研究主管Ehsan Khoman表示，“從歷史上看，能源危機(jī)和通貨膨脹的沖擊都集中在美國，因此美元看跌。歐洲是最依賴能源進(jìn)口的地區(qū)，現(xiàn)在恰好是危機(jī)的震中，并且已經(jīng)在努力應(yīng)對(duì)嚴(yán)重的能源貿(mào)易逆差。由于供應(yīng)短缺，煤炭、天然氣和石油價(jià)格繼續(xù)保持在高位，美國以外的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)所遭受的損失比美國更大，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致美元升值”。

換句話說，這不再只是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的問題。

眾所周知，聯(lián)邦基金利率的變化會(huì)對(duì)美元產(chǎn)生影響。每當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提高聯(lián)邦基金利率，它通常會(huì)提高整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的利率。較高的收益率吸引了尋求債券等利率產(chǎn)品更高回報(bào)的海外投資者的投資資本。

反過來，全球投資者會(huì)賣出以本國貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的投資，換取以美元計(jì)價(jià)的投資，從而導(dǎo)致匯率走強(qiáng)，美元走強(qiáng)。

包括量化緊縮在內(nèi)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)強(qiáng)硬立場(chǎng)助長了美元反彈初期階段。但是，能源安全方面擔(dān)憂以及歐洲重大地緣政治動(dòng)蕩正在推動(dòng)第二階段的上漲，不僅是美元上漲，油價(jià)也在上漲。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Oil Prices Rally Despite Strong Dollar

While the stock market and bond markets have crashed over the last two months, the dollar has gone from strength to strength thanks to its status as a global safe haven.

The U.S. dollar and oil prices are frequently inversely related due to the fact that oil is priced in dollars which makes it relatively more expensive to buy with other currencies.

Oil prices and the dollar have been rising since late March, hitting the highest positive correlation since May 2019.

These are rocky times for most investments. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have each fallen for seven consecutive weeks while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fared even worse, dropping for eight weeks straight, the longest losing streak for the index since the Great Depression, in 1932. The S&P 500 is now down 13.9% in the year-to-date while Nasdaq has dropped 23.1%. Meanwhile, a 10% contraction in global bonds only looks tame when compared to Bitcoin's more than 30% decline in 2022.

But it has been a wonderful stretch for the dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which pits the dollar against a basket of six global currencies, is hovering around 20-year highs. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has gained 8%; and in the last 12 months, it has risen 14%. The dollar index hit a two-decade high above 105 earlier this month and is currently trading less than 3% below those peaks. The dollar has performed even more spectacularly against single currencies: Against the Japanese yen, the dollar has appreciated more than 13% this year alone and gained 36.30% in 14-months against the sterling pound.

But a brawny dollar has failed to stop one commodity in particular: crude oil.

The oil price bull run has been taking little notice of the greenback’s advance, and has managed to snap crude's historical inverse link to the dollar thus signaling it still has room to run based on current market fundamentals.

There's normally an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and most commodity prices including oil. Historically, commodity prices have tended to drop when the dollar strengthens against other major currencies, and rise when the dollar weakens against other major currencies. Although the correlation is not perfect, there's often a significant inverse relationship over time between the dollar and commodity prices.

Positive correlation

Oil prices and the dollar have been moving in the same direction higher since late March, and hit the highest positive correlation since May 2019.

The usual inverse correlation between oil and the dollar remained unchanged in 2020 and into early 2021 as demand for crude was undermined by the global pandemic. But many analysts now expect the positive link to persist given the tight oil market and broader risks to the global economy.

"Considering that spare capacity is low, there are likely larger supply disruptions ahead of us, and that oil demand will likely keep increasing, I would expect that oil will primarily be driven by its own fundamentals," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo has said.

With oil currently trading around $115 a barrel, JPMorgan expects Brent prices to average $114 a barrel over the second quarter as whole, and even surge to over $120 a barrel at one point.

Another factor that has been contributing to the disconnect between a stronger dollar and oil prices is the fact that the current energy crisis has hit Europe the hardest: "Historically, energy crises and inflationary shocks were centered on the U.S. and hence dollar bearish," MUFG's head of emerging markets research, Ehsan Khoman has said. Europe-- the region most heavily reliant on  energy imports--now happens to be the epicenter of the crisis, and is already grappling with deep energy trade deficits.

"As coal, gas and oil prices continue to remain elevated on supply scarcity, global growth ex-U.S. is suffering more than the U.S. economy, and by extension, the U.S. dollar is appreciating," Khoman has added.

In other words, this is no longer only about the Fed.

Changes in the federal funds rate are known to impact the U.S. dollar. Whenever the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds rate, it typically increases interest rates throughout the economy. Higher yields attract investment capital from investors abroad seeking higher returns on interest-rate products such as bonds.

In turn, global investors sell their investments denominated in their local currencies in exchange for U.S. dollar-denominated investments, resulting in a stronger exchange rate in favor of the U.S. dollar.

The Fed’s hawkish stance including quantitative tightening fueled the initial stages of the dollar rally. But energy security concerns as well as major geopolitical upheavals in Europe are now fueling a second phase of not only the dollar rally but the oil price rally, too.