液化天然氣高出口量和溫暖的天氣是美國(guó)天然氣上漲價(jià)格的驅(qū)動(dòng)力

自今年年初以來(lái)，美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格飆升了130%以上

目前的價(jià)格是五年平均水平的3.3倍

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)5月25日消息，周三早些時(shí)候，受液化天然氣出口量高、天氣變暖以及當(dāng)月合約到期前貿(mào)易波動(dòng)的推動(dòng)，美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)天然氣價(jià)格躍升至每百萬(wàn)英熱單位 (MMBtu) 9美元以上。

截至美國(guó)東部時(shí)間周三上午9：15，美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)亨利中心的前一個(gè)月天然氣期貨已躍升至9.168美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，當(dāng)日上漲4.93%。

六月合約于本周四到期，而期權(quán)于周三到期。

由于對(duì)液化天然氣的強(qiáng)勁需求，尤其是在歐洲，美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格自年初以來(lái)已飆升超過(guò)130%。此外，5月初美國(guó)的早期熱浪提振了對(duì)空調(diào)和發(fā)電的需求，而供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)卻難以趕上需求。此外，根據(jù)5月19日EIA發(fā)布的最新每周天然氣儲(chǔ)存報(bào)告，本周的工作天然氣庫(kù)存比去年同期水平低17%，比五年平均水平低15% 。

最近幾周，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的液化天然氣出口和異常高的電力需求共同推動(dòng)美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于一年中這個(gè)時(shí)候的正常水平。而這可能只是開(kāi)始。分析師表示，春季天氣比往常溫暖、夏季預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)更熱，以及創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的液化天然氣出口量有助于歐洲減少對(duì)大國(guó)天然氣的依賴，可能會(huì)使美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)天然氣價(jià)格在未來(lái)幾周升至10美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位以上。

盛寶銀行商品策略主管Ole Hansen周三在推特上表示：“美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格飆升，天氣變熱，預(yù)計(jì)將提振本已強(qiáng)勁的需求，而產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)有限，以應(yīng)對(duì)這種情況。”

漢森補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，目前價(jià)格是五年平均水平的3.3倍，而歐盟天然氣價(jià)格是五年平均水平的5.3倍，周三早些時(shí)候交易價(jià)格處于地緣政治沖突發(fā)生之前的水平，庫(kù)存接近正常水平。

祝精燕 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Hit $9 For The First Time Since 2008

High LNG exports and warmer weather are the driving forces behind the rally in U.S. natural gas.

U.S. natural gas prices have surged by more than 130% since the beginning of the year.

The price is currently 3.3 times above the five-year average.

U.S. benchmark natural gas prices jumped to above $9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early on Wednesday, driven by high LNG exports, warmer weather, and volatile trade ahead of the prompt-month contract expiry.

As of 9:15 a.m. EST on Wednesday, the front-month natural gas futures at the Henry Hub, the U.S. benchmark, had jumped to $9.168/MMBtu, up by 4.93% on the day.

The June contract expires on Thursday, while options expire on Wednesday.

U.S. natural gas prices have surged by more than 130% since the beginning of the year, due to strong demand for LNG, especially in Europe, which is scrambling to replace as much gas as soon as possible. In addition, early heat waves in the U.S. at the start of May boosted demand for air conditioning and power generation, while supply growth is struggling to catch up with demand. Moreover, working natural gas stocks are 17% lower than the year-ago level and 15% lower than the five-year average for this week, according to the EIA’s latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on May 19.

Record LNG exports and unseasonably high demand for electricity have combined in recent weeks to push U.S. gas prices considerably higher than they normally are at this time of the year. And this may only be the beginning. Warmer than usual spring weather, expectations of a hotter summer, and record LNG exports to help Europe reduce dependence on  gas could send the U.S. benchmark natural gas prices to above $10/MMBtu in the coming weeks, analysts say.

“US natgas spikes with hotter weather expected to boost already strong demand with limited production growth to counter,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, tweeted on Wednesday.

The price is currently 3.3 times above the five-year average, while EU gas, at 5.3 times above five-year average, traded early on Wednesday at pre-war levels with stocks closing in on normal levels, Hansen added.