據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年6月27日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)路透社發(fā)表的一篇報(bào)告，歐佩克+將降低其對(duì)今年石油市場(chǎng)過(guò)剩的預(yù)測(cè)。  

這份報(bào)告是在周二召開(kāi)的歐佩克+聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會(huì)會(huì)議之前準(zhǔn)備的。報(bào)告顯示，歐佩克+集團(tuán)目前預(yù)計(jì)今年石油市場(chǎng)每日過(guò)剩量將降至100萬(wàn)桶，低于此前預(yù)估的140萬(wàn)桶。

原油過(guò)剩預(yù)測(cè)的降低是由于歐佩克+集團(tuán)繼續(xù)在其配額下生產(chǎn)原油。歐佩克+同意在5月份日增43.2萬(wàn)桶原油產(chǎn)量。但歐佩克+集團(tuán)未能實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，比預(yù)期每天低270萬(wàn)桶。今年6月，歐佩克+集團(tuán)再次同意將原油產(chǎn)量再日增43.2萬(wàn)桶，但業(yè)內(nèi)普遍認(rèn)為，歐佩克+成員國(guó)也無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)這一配額目標(biāo)。 

對(duì)于7月和8月，歐佩克+集團(tuán)更加雄心勃勃，更大幅度地提高原油產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)，實(shí)際上是將9月的增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃提前到了7月和8月。

如果歐佩克+確實(shí)在他們的估計(jì)中使用了這些產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)，歐佩克+的持續(xù)減產(chǎn)將減少任何預(yù)期的市場(chǎng)過(guò)剩。

一直以來(lái)，歐佩克在減產(chǎn)協(xié)議上最大的落后者之一是尼日利亞，該國(guó)實(shí)際上在5月份的產(chǎn)量有所下降，而不是按照配額增加產(chǎn)量。結(jié)果是實(shí)際產(chǎn)量比配額每天少50萬(wàn)桶。但尼日利亞石油部長(zhǎng)上周表示，該國(guó)將能夠在8月底前實(shí)現(xiàn)其歐佩克產(chǎn)量配額。 

如果尼日利亞能在8月底達(dá)到產(chǎn)量配額，屆時(shí)歐佩克+產(chǎn)量配額將完全收回，這將大大增加歐佩克+集團(tuán)所認(rèn)為的市場(chǎng)過(guò)剩。 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Sees Oil Market Surplus Shrinking To 1 Million Bpd

OPEC+ is slimming down its projections for an oil market surplus this year, according to a report seen by Reuters.

The report, which was prepared ahead of the OPEC+ JTC meeting that will take place on Tuesday, showed that the OPEC+ group now sees the oil market surplus at 1 million bpd this year—down from their previous estimates of 1.4 million bpd.

The lowering of crude oil surplus projections comes as the OPEC+ group continues to produce under its quota. OPEC+ agreed to increase its production in May by 432,000 bpd. The group was unable to reach this target, undershooting it by 2.7 million bpd. For June, the OPEC+ group again agreed to lift its production by another 432,000 bpd, but the general consensus in the industry is that they will be unable to meet that quota too.

For July and August, the OPEC+ group got even more ambitious, raising their output targets by an even greater extent, essentially rolling the September increase that they had planned into July and August.

But OPEC+’s continued underproduction will shrink any anticipated market surplus, if indeed OPEC+ is using these production figures in their estimates.

One of the biggest OPEC laggards in the production cut deal all along has been Nigeria, which actually had its production decrease in May instead of increase per the quota. The result was a half a million barrel a day shortfall in its actual production vs. its quota. But Nigeria’s oil minister last week said that it would be able to meet its OPEC production quota by the end of August.

If Nigeria manages to reach its production quota by the end of August when the OPEC+ quotas have been fully rolled back, it would go a long way to adding to that market surplus that the OPEC+ group sees.