據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社2022年7月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，世界最大投資銀行及金融機(jī)構(gòu)之一的美國(guó)花旗集團(tuán)7月5日警告說，如果出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重影響需求的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，到今年年底前原油價(jià)格可能暴跌至每桶65美元，到2023年底前進(jìn)一步跌至每桶45美元。 

花旗集團(tuán)包括Francesco Martoccia和Ed Morse在內(nèi)的分析師在一份報(bào)告中稱，這一前景是基于歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)沒有任何干預(yù)，以及石油投資減少。全球原油基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油最近的交易價(jià)格接近每桶113美元。

今年，在2月爆發(fā)軍事沖突之后，油價(jià)飆升。由于各國(guó)央行加息和衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升，銀行如今正試圖將其進(jìn)程拖到2023年。花旗集團(tuán)的油價(jià)展望將當(dāng)前的能源市場(chǎng)與上世紀(jì)70年代的危機(jī)進(jìn)行了比較。目前，世行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)不會(huì)陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。 

花旗集團(tuán)分析師在7月5日的報(bào)告中表示：“就石油而言，歷史證據(jù)表明，只有在全球最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中，石油需求才會(huì)出現(xiàn)負(fù)值?！薄暗谒薪?jīng)濟(jì)衰退中，油價(jià)都會(huì)跌至接近邊際成本?！?/p>

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Citi Warns Oil May Collapse

Crude oil could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and slump to $45 by end-2023 if a demand-crippling recession hits, Citigroup Inc. has warned.

That outlook is based on an absence of any intervention by OPEC+ producers and a decline in oil investments, analysts including Francesco Martoccia and Ed Morse said in a report. Brent, the global crude benchmark, last traded near $113 a barrel.

Oil has soared this year following the war, and banks are now trying to chart its course into 2023 as central banks raise interest rates and recessionary risks mount. Citi’s outlook compared the current energy market with crises of the 1970s. At present, the bank’s economists do not expect the US to dip into recession.

“For oil, the historical evidence suggests that oil demand goes negative only in the worst global recessions,” the Citi analysts said in the July 5 note. “But oil prices fall in all recessions to roughly the marginal cost.”