北美石油工業(yè)的油氣產(chǎn)量增加速度快于預(yù)期  

油氣企業(yè)最大的擔(dān)憂不再是經(jīng)濟(jì)滑入衰退的可能性，而是足夠的設(shè)備供應(yīng)  

雷斯塔能源公司高級分析師羅布·馬西說，“我們開始涉足一個(gè)前所未有的領(lǐng)域”

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月8日報(bào)道，在歐洲，對經(jīng)濟(jì)可能陷入深度衰退的擔(dān)憂仍在繼續(xù)。 與此同時(shí)，這些擔(dān)憂似乎在北美逐漸平息——至少在石油工業(yè)是這樣。相反，頁巖和油砂產(chǎn)量又回到了增加模式。  

這是斯倫貝謝公司的說法。斯倫貝謝公司首席執(zhí)行官本周表示，北美石油工業(yè)油氣產(chǎn)量的增加速度快于預(yù)期，油氣公司現(xiàn)在最大的擔(dān)憂不再是經(jīng)濟(jì)滑入衰退的可能性，而是足夠的設(shè)備供應(yīng)。  

在疫情導(dǎo)致的供應(yīng)鏈混亂最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)期過去以后，設(shè)備供應(yīng)安全問題似乎仍在持續(xù)。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，9月早些時(shí)候，由于供應(yīng)短缺，許多公司難以獲得提高產(chǎn)量所需的水力壓裂設(shè)備。  

報(bào)告指出，包括哈里伯頓公司在內(nèi)的眾多油田服務(wù)供應(yīng)商正在“翻新”現(xiàn)有設(shè)備，而不是新建設(shè)備，因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心再次出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷會(huì)使此類投資變得毫無意義。短缺的設(shè)備包括水力壓裂泵和水力壓裂人員，而勞動(dòng)力短缺也在疫情后持續(xù)。 

挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）高級分析師Rob Mathey告訴彭博社說：“我們在某種程度上正處于前所未有的領(lǐng)域。”他說，這種設(shè)備供應(yīng)狀況“將真正導(dǎo)致勘探與生產(chǎn)試圖增加產(chǎn)量的問題”。

不過，斯倫貝謝公司首席執(zhí)行官奧利維爾·拉·佩奇本周談話的語氣要樂觀得多。據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，佩奇日前在一次行業(yè)活動(dòng)上表示，“設(shè)備需求勢頭巨大”，并補(bǔ)充稱，油氣工業(yè)的投資率“是我很長一段時(shí)間以來從未見過的”。

還有更多跡象顯示，美國石油工業(yè)的樂觀情緒正在恢復(fù)。最近高露潔能源公司和百年資源開發(fā)公司的合并就是其中之一。 高露潔能源公司的所有者認(rèn)為，美國石油產(chǎn)量將會(huì)繼續(xù)增加，這是因?yàn)槎B紀(jì)遠(yuǎn)景區(qū)一部分的特拉華盆地的低成本頁巖探區(qū)。

詹姆斯·沃爾特告訴彭博社，隨著時(shí)間的推移，北美最好的庫存逐漸耗盡，庫存增加將變得更加困難。與其他盆地相比，特拉華盆地有更大的運(yùn)營空間和更多的頂尖未開發(fā)的庫存。

盡管斯倫貝謝公司和高露潔能源公司表現(xiàn)出樂觀情緒，但美國能源信息署（EIA）剛剛將美國明年的原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)期下調(diào)了大約7萬桶至1263萬桶。雖然修正幅度不大，但這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)表明，全面增加仍存在障礙。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The U.S. Oil Industry Won’t Stop Growing

·     The North American oil industry is growing faster than expected

·     Companies' biggest worry is no longer the possibility of the economy sliding into a recession but the supply of enough equipment.

·    "We're kind of in unprecedented territory here," Rob Mathey, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, said.

In Europe, fears of a potentially deep recession continue to take hold. Meanwhile, these fears seem to have subsided in North America—at least in the oil industry. Instead, it's back to growth mode for the shale patch and the oil sands.

This is according to Schlumberger, whose chief executive said this week that activity in the North American oil industry was growing faster than expected, with companies' biggest worry no longer the possibility of the economy sliding into a recession but the supply of enough equipment.

The equipment security seems to have lingered after the worst of the pandemic-driven supply chain chaos subsided. Bloomberg reported that many companies struggled to secure the fracking equipment they need earlier this month because of the short supply.

The report noted that oilfield service providers, including Halliburton, were "reconditioning" existing equipment rather than building new because of their wariness of another downturn that would make such an investment pointless. Among the things that are in short supply are frack pumps and frack crews: the labor shortage has also lingered after the pandemic.

"We're kind of in unprecedented territory here," Rob Mathey, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, told Bloomberg. This supply situation, he said, "is going to really lead to issues with E&Ps trying to grow."

Schlumberger's Olivier La Peuch, however, sounded on a much more optimistic note this week. "There is huge momentum," he said at an industry event as quoted by Reuters, adding that investment rates in the industry were "something I've not seen for quite some time."

There are also more signs of returning optimism in the U.S. oil industry. The recent merger between Colgate Energy and Centennial Resource Development is one of them. The owners of Colgate Energy believe that U.S. oil production is going to grow, and it's going to grow because of the low-cost shale acreage in the Delaware Basin, part of the Permian play.

"Growth gets harder over time as the best inventory in North America gets depleted," James Walter told Bloomberg. "The Delaware has more room to run and more top-tier undeveloped inventory than any other basin."

Yet despite the upbeat sentiment demonstrated by Schlumberger and Colgate Energy, the Energy Information Administration just revised down its production outlook for 2023 by some 70,000 barrels daily to 12.63 million bpd. While not a huge revision, the figure suggests there are still obstacles to all-out growth.