最近的拋售并不意味著石油市場(chǎng)崩潰

市場(chǎng)“運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)良好”，簡(jiǎn)單的答案是“石油市場(chǎng)急劇轉(zhuǎn)向過剩”

第三季度石油市場(chǎng)過剩為182萬桶/天

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，渣打銀行大宗商品分析師表示，由于油價(jià)持續(xù)暴跌，原油產(chǎn)量意外增加和戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備再次釋放引發(fā)了最新一輪拋售，但石油市場(chǎng)并沒有從根本上崩潰，而只是對(duì)市場(chǎng)石油過剩做出反應(yīng)。  

渣打銀行周四在其最新的大宗商品市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中表示，全球石油市場(chǎng)目前處于供應(yīng)過剩狀態(tài)，第三季度美國(guó)平均每天將向商業(yè)庫存轉(zhuǎn)移83萬桶石油。 

渣打銀行的分析師估計(jì)第三季度的石油過剩為每天182萬桶，并指出預(yù)測(cè)——尤其是來自美國(guó)投資銀行的預(yù)測(cè)——表明油價(jià)可能達(dá)到每桶150美元是錯(cuò)誤的預(yù)測(cè)，市場(chǎng)“還沒有完全反映出這種假設(shè)被證明是錯(cuò)誤的程度”。

盡管預(yù)測(cè)者將近期油價(jià)暴跌歸咎于市場(chǎng)機(jī)制失靈、波動(dòng)、交易商非理性和流動(dòng)性不足，但渣打銀行分析師表示，石油市場(chǎng)“運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)良好”，簡(jiǎn)單的答案是“石油市場(chǎng)急劇轉(zhuǎn)向過剩”。  

渣打銀行在報(bào)告中寫道，如今，“由于全球石油供應(yīng)大量過剩，以及這些轉(zhuǎn)移可用于重建庫存，美國(guó)第三季度的石油數(shù)據(jù)主要是看跌的，”并補(bǔ)充稱，“美國(guó)能源信息署最新發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)延續(xù)了這一趨勢(shì)，美國(guó)石油數(shù)據(jù)空頭下降8.3，至非常看跌的-70.0。”

渣打銀行將9月份需求的初步跡象描述為“疲弱”，指出“除其他油類外，所有產(chǎn)品的需求均同比下降”。其中餾分油數(shù)據(jù)尤其疲弱，庫存增加422萬桶，隱含需求為20個(gè)月來最低。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The Oil Market Isn’t Broken, It’s Just Responding To A Supply Surplus

·     Standard Chartered: The latest selloff doesn’t mean the market is broken.

·     Standard Chartered analysts say the market is “well-functioning” and the simple answer is a “sharp swing into surplus”.

·     StanChart analysts estimate the Q3 surplus at 1.82 million barrels per day.

As oil prices continue to plunge, with the latest selloff triggered by a surprise crude build and another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered say the oil market is not fundamentally broken but is rather merely responding to a surplus. 

In its latest commodities market update on Thursday, StanChart says that the global oil market is currently in excess supply, with the U.S. transferring an average 0.83 million barrels per day (mb/d) into commercial inventories in the third quarter. 

StanChart analysts estimate the Q3 surplus at 1.82 million barrels per day, and suggest that forecasts–notably from U.S. investment banks–that were indicating the potential for $150 oil were wrong and that the market “has not yet fully priced in the extent to which that assumption proved wrong”. 

While forecasters have blamed market mechanism failures, volatility, trader irrationality and low liquidity for the recent plunge in oil prices, Standard Chartered analysts say the market is “well-functioning” and the simple answer is a “sharp swing into surplus”.  

Now, “with a large global flow surplus and those transfers available to rebuild inventories, US oil data has been mainly bearish in Q3,” Standard Chartered writes, adding that “The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) release continues that trend, with our US oil data bull-bear falling 8.3 w/w to a highly bearish -70.0.” 

Standard Chartered described early indications of September demand as “weak”, noting that “demand for all products is lower y/y except other oils. The distillate data was particularly weak, with a sharp 4.22mb inventory build and the lowest implied demand in 20 months.”