據(jù)彭博新聞社2023年1月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，埃克森美孚公司、雪佛龍公司、殼牌公司、道達(dá)爾能源公司和英國(guó)石油公司去年總共獲得近2000億美元的收入。然而，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩、天然氣價(jià)格暴跌、成本通脹以及亞洲市場(chǎng)重新開(kāi)放的不確定性的擔(dān)憂，使5大石油巨頭2023年收入增長(zhǎng)前景變得黯淡。

2022年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄利潤(rùn)

這5大石油巨頭預(yù)計(jì)將在未來(lái)幾天內(nèi)報(bào)告2022年的利潤(rùn)總額將達(dá)到1987億美元。根據(jù)彭博新聞社匯編的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，這比十多年前創(chuàng)下的年度紀(jì)錄還高出50%。

業(yè)內(nèi)分析師表示，這5大石油巨頭過(guò)去12個(gè)月里金融海嘯期間所產(chǎn)生的利潤(rùn)意味著，石油行業(yè)能夠維持股息增長(zhǎng)和股票回購(gòu)。對(duì)股東來(lái)說(shuō)至關(guān)重要的是，隨著大宗商品的繁榮，管理團(tuán)隊(duì)推遲了增加支出，這與之前的周期形成了鮮明對(duì)比。

相反，他們選擇償還債務(wù)并提高投資者回報(bào)：1月25日，雪佛龍公司宣布將回購(gòu)750億美元的股票，此舉震驚了股東，這是雪佛龍公司目前年度回購(gòu)支出的5倍。

匯豐控股有限公司歐洲石油和天然氣研究主管Kim Fustier說(shuō)：“相對(duì)于2022年的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，大宗商品價(jià)格全面下跌，但看起來(lái)2023年仍將是利潤(rùn)非常強(qiáng)勁的一年?！薄熬驼w分配和股票回購(gòu)而言，今年很可能是歷史上第二好的一年。”

雖然2022年第四季度獲得的利潤(rùn)是歷史上最高的3個(gè)季度之一，但由于油氣價(jià)格下跌，利潤(rùn)可能會(huì)下降。埃克森美孚公司和殼牌公司的產(chǎn)量指導(dǎo)顯示，煉油利潤(rùn)率高于預(yù)期。

盡管能源價(jià)格大幅回落——目前原油和天然氣價(jià)格低于去年2月底時(shí)的價(jià)格——但這可能有助于將全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和能源公司置于更為穩(wěn)固的長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)軌道上。較低的能源成本有助于緩解通脹，緩解各國(guó)央行繼續(xù)加息的壓力。

各大石油勘探公司全線都在集中精力將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的利潤(rùn)返還給股東，同時(shí)控制支出。這一策略引發(fā)了從布魯塞爾到華盛頓的政客們的政治攻擊，他們希望增加供應(yīng)以壓低價(jià)格。

自去年2月24日以來(lái)，盡管原油價(jià)格下跌了11%，但5大石油巨頭的股價(jià)至少上漲了18%。去年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)中表現(xiàn)最好的10家公司都是能源公司，埃克森美孚公司股價(jià)上漲了80%，是有記錄以來(lái)表現(xiàn)最好的一年。根據(jù)彭博社匯編的數(shù)據(jù)，盡管石油公司僅占該指數(shù)市值的5%，但其收益占該指數(shù)收益的10%左右。

管理著大約4000億美元資產(chǎn)的路博邁（Neuberger Berman Group LLC）高級(jí)分析師杰夫?威爾表示：“投資者被這石油行業(yè)目前所具備的許多特點(diǎn)所吸引。”“石油行業(yè)試圖成為一個(gè)增長(zhǎng)型行業(yè)，但失敗了。石油行業(yè)將自己重塑為一個(gè)現(xiàn)金分配和收益游戲，在這種環(huán)境下很有吸引力?！?/p>

石油巨頭命運(yùn)的關(guān)鍵在于，它們能否兌現(xiàn)去年在大宗商品價(jià)格持續(xù)數(shù)月上漲期間做出的對(duì)股東回報(bào)的承諾。

管理著大約2750億美元資產(chǎn)的駿利亨德森投資公司（Janus Henderson）首席能源分析師諾亞·巴雷特表示：“我預(yù)計(jì)石油公司將維持這些股東回報(bào)。在幾乎任何油價(jià)下，基本股息都非常安全，資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表狀況良好，我預(yù)計(jì)他們將繼續(xù)回購(gòu)股票?！?/p>

對(duì)資本支出的反感仍在繼續(xù)

投資者也渴望聽(tīng)到高管們堅(jiān)守資本紀(jì)律的口頭禪。在過(guò)去10年的大部分時(shí)間里，支出的巨大增長(zhǎng)侵蝕了股東回報(bào)，并使石油行業(yè)容易受到2016年和2020年油價(jià)暴跌的影響。

“目前石油公司仍不愿大幅增加資本支出，”威爾如是說(shuō)，“石油公司過(guò)去一度遇到的問(wèn)題是一次做太多的大型項(xiàng)目?，F(xiàn)在石油公司更加專注這個(gè)問(wèn)題。”

到目前為止，這種紀(jì)律似乎仍然有效。?？松梨诠竞脱┓瘕埞径继岣吡私衲甑闹С瞿繕?biāo)。然而，這些增長(zhǎng)主要是由通脹推動(dòng)，而不是由長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)項(xiàng)目推動(dòng)。高盛集團(tuán)在1月9日的一份報(bào)告中表示，盡管從2020年初到2022年年中，油價(jià)上漲了500%，但全球石油和天然氣的實(shí)際資本支出下降了。

在這個(gè)財(cái)報(bào)季里，企業(yè)高管們面臨的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是，他們?yōu)闅W洲的暴利稅預(yù)留了多少。?？松梨诠竟烙?jì)要支付20億美元暴利稅，但正在采取法律行動(dòng)。殼牌公司表示，其2022年的暴利稅賬單可能總計(jì)24億美元。

1月早些時(shí)候，埃克森美孚公司表示，由于石油和天然氣價(jià)格下跌，該公司去年第四季度收益比前一季度減少了大約37億美元，但業(yè)內(nèi)分析師指出，煉油利潤(rùn)率遠(yuǎn)高于預(yù)期。這家美國(guó)石油巨頭將于1月31日發(fā)布其2022年財(cái)報(bào)。

殼牌公司新任命的首席執(zhí)行官Wael Sawan將主持他的第一次公司業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議，殼牌公司還指出，煉油業(yè)務(wù)將更加強(qiáng)勁，并指出天然氣交易將出現(xiàn)反彈。道達(dá)爾能源公司在1月17日的一份聲明中指出了類似的趨勢(shì)。

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Major oil and gas players bring in $199 billion in 2022, expect stall in growth in 2023

Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year. However, fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over Asian re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.

Record-setting profit year in 2022

The five companies are expected to report $198.7 billion in combined 2022 profit in the next few days. This is 50% higher than the previous annual record set more than a decade ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The tsunami of cash generated by the group over the past 12 months means the industry can sustain dividend increases and share buybacks, analysts said. Crucially for shareholders, management teams held off on spending increases as commodities boomed, in stark contrast with previous cycles.

Instead, they opted to repay debt and swell investor returns: Chevron stunned shareholders with a $75 billion stock-repurchase announcement on Jan. 25, — five times the company’s current annual outlay for buybacks. 

“Commodity prices are down across the board relative to record 2022 levels, but it still looks like it’s going to be a very strong year,” said Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas research at HSBC Holdings Plc. “It could very well be the second-best year in history for overall distributions and share buybacks.”

Fourth-quarter earnings, while one of the three highest on record, will likely decrease from lower oil and gas prices. Guidance from Exxon and Shell suggest refining margins held up more than expected.

While the pullback in energy prices has been sharp — crude and gas are lower now than when the war in late February — it may help put the global economy and energy companies on a firmer long-term trajectory. Lower energy costs are helping take some of the sting out of inflation, easing pressure on central banks to carry on raising interest rates.

Across the board, the biggest oil explorers are focused on funneling record profits back to shareholders while keeping a check on spending. That strategy has provoked political attacks from Brussels to Washington D.C. by politicians wanting more supply to bring down prices.

Shares of the five supermajors are up at least 18% since the war an 11% drop in the price of crude. The top ten performers in the S&P 500 last year were all energy companies, with Exxon advancing 80% for its best annual performance on record. Oil companies now generate about 10% of the index’s earnings, despite making up just 5% of its market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Investors are attracted to a lot of the characteristics this sector has to offer now,” said Jeff Wyll, a senior analyst at Neuberger Berman Group LLC, which manages about $400 billion. “It was trying to be a growth sector and that failed. It reinvented itself as a cash distribution and yield play, which is attractive in this environment.”

Key to the oil majors’ fortunes is whether they can stick to shareholder-return pledges made last year during the months-long run-up in commodity prices.

“I expect them to maintain those shareholder returns,” said Noah Barrett, lead energy analyst at Janus Henderson, which manages about $275 billion. “The base dividends are incredibly safe at almost any oil price, balance sheets are in good shape and I expect them to continue buying back shares.”

Aversions to capital spending continue

Investors are also keen to hear executives sticking to the mantra of capital discipline. It was the huge growth in spending over much of the last decade that eroded shareholder returns and left the sector vulnerable to oil crashes in 2016 and 2020.

“There is still an aversion to big capital expenditure increases, period,” Wyll said. “The problem the sector got into in the past is doing too many megaprojects at one time. Now it’s much more focused.”

So far that discipline appears to be holding. Exxon and Chevron both raised spending targets for this year. However, the increases were driven largely by inflation rather than ramping up long-term growth projects. Despite a 500% increase in oil prices from early 2020 to mid-2022, global oil and gas capital spending fell in real terms, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Jan. 9 note.

One crucial question for executives this earnings season is how much they’re reserving for European windfall-profit taxes. Exxon estimated a $2 billion charge but is pursuing legal action. Shell says its 2022 bill may total $2.4 billion.

Earlier this month, Exxon indicated that fourth-quarter earnings took a hit of about $3.7 billion from weaker oil and gas prices compared with the previous quarter, but analysts noted that refining margins were much stronger than expected. The US oil giant reports on Jan. 31.

Shell, whose newly-appointed Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan will host his first earnings call, also noted stronger refining and pointed to a rebound in gas trading. TotalEnergies pointed to similar trends in a Jan. 17 statement.