據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)1月31日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)修正了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)展望，以反映經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低因素，這給石油市場(chǎng)增添了一絲樂(lè)觀情緒。

在最新一期的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》(World Economic Outlook)月度報(bào)告中，世行預(yù)計(jì)通脹將見頂，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)今年將增長(zhǎng)2.9%。雖然這比2022年估計(jì)的3.4%的增長(zhǎng)率有所下降，但比上個(gè)月預(yù)測(cè)的2.7%的增長(zhǎng)率有所上調(diào)。

該機(jī)構(gòu)還表示，今年和明年的油價(jià)都將低于2022年，這一預(yù)測(cè)是基于對(duì)這兩年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的預(yù)測(cè)。

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的修正是基于“消費(fèi)者支出的驚人彈性”，特別是在歐洲和美國(guó)，以及能源成本的下降。亞洲大國(guó)的重新開放是修訂展望時(shí)提到的另一個(gè)因素。

根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的數(shù)據(jù)，通貨膨脹率將從去年的8.8%下降到今年的6.6%，并在2024年進(jìn)一步下降到4.3%。該組織指出，這仍高于大流行前3.5%的全球平均水平。

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織表示，盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)放緩，但這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)遠(yuǎn)非不存在，并指出公共衛(wèi)生健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、地緣政治沖突升級(jí)以及融資成本上升都是這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一。

最新數(shù)據(jù)公布后，油價(jià)下跌，受本周將宣布更多加息預(yù)期以及產(chǎn)能大國(guó)石油出口反彈的拖累。

IMF的報(bào)告雖然預(yù)測(cè)油價(jià)將走低，但可能會(huì)對(duì)投資者產(chǎn)生鼓舞作用，因?yàn)閳?bào)告對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度，盡管報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)今明兩年油價(jià)將走低。

壽琳玲 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

IMF Injects Optimism Into Oil Markets

The International Monetary Fund has added a dose of optimism to oil markets by revising its global economic growth outlook to reflect a lowered risk of a slowdown.

In its latest monthly World Economic Outlook, the lender said that it expected inflation to peak and the global economy to grow by 2.9% this year. While this would be a decline from a growth rate of 3.4% estimated for 2022, it is an upward revision from last month’s growth projection of 2.7%.

It also said that oil prices are set to be lower both this year and next than in 2022, a prediction based on the forecast of lower economic growth in both years.

The IMF based its revision on what it said was surprising resilience in consumer spending, notably in Europe and the United States, and lower energy costs. The reopening of the biggest country In Asia was another factor cited in the revised outlook.

Inflation, according to the IMF would decline from 8.8% last year to 6.6% this year, and further to 4.3% in 2024. This would still leave it higher than the pre-pandemic global average of 3.5%, the Fund noted.

Although risks for global economic growth have moderated, the IMF said they are far from non-existent and went on to cite the risk of the public health sanitation , an escalation of the war, and higher financing costs among these risks.

Oil prices slipped following the publication of the update, weighed down by expectations of more rate hikes due to be announced this week and by resilient oil exports.

The IMF’s report, although predicting lower oil prices, might have an invigorating effect on them because of the optimistic growth note it struck, even if it featured a prediction for lower oil prices this year and next.