據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)1月27日?qǐng)?bào)道，上周在達(dá)沃斯舉行的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇上，包括聯(lián)合國(guó)秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)安東尼奧·古特雷斯和國(guó)際能源署總干事法提赫·比羅爾在內(nèi)的幾位發(fā)言者對(duì)石油和天然氣行業(yè)發(fā)表了嚴(yán)厲的言論。他們傳達(dá)的信息很明確：我們需要停止生產(chǎn)石油和天然氣來(lái)解決氣候問(wèn)題。

然而，在這種情況發(fā)生的同時(shí)，世界仍然需要能源，而石油和天然氣仍然是我們需要能源的大多數(shù)情形的最佳能源形式。因此，隨著需求預(yù)測(cè)(包括國(guó)際能源署預(yù)測(cè))今年將超過(guò)供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)率，新的鉆探活動(dòng)正在蓬勃發(fā)展。尤其是海外。

去年12月，Oilprice報(bào)告稱(chēng)，由于市場(chǎng)對(duì)Transocean、Valaris和Noble Corp等海上鉆井承包商的服務(wù)需求強(qiáng)勁，其股價(jià)飆升，鉆井平臺(tái)的日費(fèi)也大幅上漲。

現(xiàn)在，《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道稱(chēng)，無(wú)論氣候變化的演講者試圖描繪出什么樣的末日景象，石油需求沒(méi)有開(kāi)始下降的跡象，海上鉆探的速度可能會(huì)從目前的40萬(wàn)美元上升到每天50萬(wàn)美元。

“在過(guò)去的一年半里，所有人都想重新開(kāi)始在海上鉆井，他們想要使用最高效的鉆井平臺(tái)，突然之間，砰!”Noble Corp首席執(zhí)行官Robert Eifler告訴《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》，“八年后，高端鉆船船隊(duì)基本上都會(huì)得到充分利用。”

對(duì)去年海上鉆井行業(yè)簽署的最大交易的匯總，強(qiáng)化了人們對(duì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇的看法。最大的一筆交易是卡塔爾能源公司與麥克德莫特簽訂的擴(kuò)大北油田產(chǎn)能的合同，麥克德莫特表示這是其歷史上最大的單筆交易之一。

卡塔爾還參與了2022年與意大利Saipem的第二大海上交易，再次將設(shè)備與技術(shù)應(yīng)用于北部油田——這是可以理解的——因?yàn)榭ㄋ栍?jì)劃將該國(guó)的液化天然氣生產(chǎn)能力從每年7700萬(wàn)噸提高到1.1億噸。這意味著海上鉆井承包商將有很多工作要做。

ADNOC還在斯倫貝謝和哈里伯頓的幫助下提高其產(chǎn)能，這兩家公司去年與阿聯(lián)酋石油簽訂了兩份價(jià)值約40億美元的合同。沙特阿美也是如此，該公司已宣布計(jì)劃將其石油日產(chǎn)量提高100萬(wàn)桶，至1300萬(wàn)桶。根據(jù)Evercore的說(shuō)法，沙特阿拉伯和阿聯(lián)酋的大部分新產(chǎn)能將來(lái)自海上開(kāi)發(fā)。

盡管挪威此前承諾逐步減少石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量，并轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源，但挪威也在考慮大力擴(kuò)大其石油和天然氣鉆探活動(dòng)，所有這些活動(dòng)都在海上進(jìn)行。本月早些時(shí)候，挪威石油部向25家公司頒發(fā)了47個(gè)新的勘探許可證。

據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道，巴西、圭亞那和蘇里南的海上鉆井也在蓬勃發(fā)展。巴西國(guó)家石油公司表示，將在2023年至2027年期間增加支出，大部分資金將用于勘探和生產(chǎn)。圭亞那正在享受一系列海上發(fā)現(xiàn)的成果，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)使這個(gè)小國(guó)的石油出口在2022年增長(zhǎng)了164%，收入達(dá)到11億美元。蘇里南似乎正走在圭亞那通往石油財(cái)富的道路上，盡管它遇到了一些挑戰(zhàn)。

分析師對(duì)海上鉆井市場(chǎng)的預(yù)期似乎很樂(lè)觀。油價(jià)比2019年更高，石油需求強(qiáng)勁，海上鉆井承包商正在獲得可觀的利潤(rùn)。深水鉆井尤其具有吸引力，因?yàn)槭澜缟洗蟛糠治撮_(kāi)發(fā)的石油資源都在那里。

根據(jù)Westwood Global Energy Group的數(shù)據(jù)，截至去年12月，全球約90%的海上鉆井平臺(tái)已經(jīng)簽約或已經(jīng)在工作。《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》在其報(bào)告中指出，這一比例高于五年前的60%。

海上鉆井，尤其是深水鉆井的需求激增，也恢復(fù)了對(duì)鉆井船的需求，這些鉆井船在疫情及其導(dǎo)致的行業(yè)低迷期間停產(chǎn)。鉆井船重新投入運(yùn)營(yíng)的成本約為1億美元，業(yè)主要求預(yù)付大部分費(fèi)用。

因此，盡管要求關(guān)閉油氣行業(yè)的呼聲越來(lái)越高，但現(xiàn)實(shí)世界需要更多的石油和天然氣，而該行業(yè)正在實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。從巴西海岸到北海和波斯灣，鉆井承包商正在建造鉆井平臺(tái)，以便從海底開(kāi)采更多的石油和天然氣。分析人士稱(chēng)之為“超級(jí)周期”。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Offshore Oil And Gas Is Back, Baby

At last week’s World Economic Forum gathering in Davos, several speakers had harsh words for the oil and gas industry, including UN head Antonio Guterres and the IEA’s chief Fatih Birol. Their message was clear: we need to stop producing oil and gas to solve the climate problem.

While this was happening, however, the world continued to need energy, and oil and gas continued to be the optimal form of energy for most of the things we need energy for. So, with demand forecast—including by the IEA—to surge this year above the growth rate of supply, new drilling is flourishing. Especially offshore.

In December last year, Oilprice reported that the stocks of offshore drilling contractors such as Transocean, Valaris, and Noble Corp were skyrocketing amid robust demand for their services, with day rates for drilling rigs surging as well.

Now, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that rates could top $500,000 per day, up from about $400,000 at the moment, with offshore drilling picking up everywhere as demand shows no signs it is about to start declining, no matter what apocalyptic visions climate speakers try to paint.

“Over the past year and a half, everyone started drilling again offshore, and they want to use the most efficient rigs and all of a sudden, bam!” Noble Corp chief executive Robert Eifler told the Wall Street Journal. “After eight years we basically have full utilization of the high-end drillship fleet.”

A roundup of the biggest deals signed in the offshore drilling industry last year reinforces the perception of a strong revival. The biggest deal was QatarEnergy’s contract with McDermott for expanding the production capacity at the North Field, which McDermott said is one of the largest single deals in its history.

Qatar was also involved in the second-largest offshore deal for 2022, with Italy’s Saipem, again for the North Field, which is understandable as the Qatari government plans to boost the country’s LNG production capacity from 77 million tons annually to 110 million tons. That means there will be a lot of work for offshore drilling contractors.

Adnoc is also boosting its production capacity with the help of Schlumberger and Halliburton, which got two contracts with the Emirati major last year worth some $4 billion. The same is true for Aramco, which has announced plans to increase its oil production capacity by 1 million barrels daily to a total of 13 million. According to Evercore, most of Saudi Arabia’s—and the UAE’s—new capacity will come from offshore developments.

Norway is also eyeing strong expansion of its oil and gas drilling, all of which takes place offshore, despite previous government pledges for a gradual reduction in oil and gas production and a shift towards renewable energy. Earlier this month, Norway’s petroleum ministry awarded 47 new exploration licenses to 25 companies.

Offshore drilling is booming in Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname as well, per the Wall Street Journal. Brazil’s Petrobras said it will boost spending between 2023 and 2027, with most of the money going into exploration and production. Guyana is enjoying the results of a string of offshore discoveries that have boosted the tiny nation’s oil exports by 164 percent in 2022, with revenues hitting $1.1 billion. Suriname is seemingly on Guyana’s path to oil riches, although it is meeting some challenges.

Analyst expectations about the offshore drilling market appear to be upbeat. Oil prices are higher than they were in 2019, oil demand is strong, and offshore drilling contractors are turning a nice profit. Deepwater drilling is particularly attractive since that’s where most of the world’s untapped oil resources are.

According to data from Westwood Global Energy Group, some 90 percent of the world’s offshore rigs were contracted to work or were already working as of last December. That’s up from about 60 percent five years earlier, the WSJ noted in its report.

This surge in demand for offshore drilling, especially in deep waters, has also revived demand for drillships that were put offline during the pandemic and the industry downturn it caused. Drillships cost about $100 million to put back online, and owners are demanding most of the money upfront.

So, despite increasingly loud calls for what effectively amounts to shutting down the oil and gas industry, the real world is demanding more oil and gas, and the industry is delivering. From the shores of Brazil to the North Sea and the Persian Gulf, drilling contractors are putting up rigs to pump more oil and gas from underneath the seabed. Analysts are calling it a supercycle.