據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)站2023年4月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，伍德麥肯茲預(yù)測(cè)，在可行的40多個(gè)項(xiàng)目中，今年全球?qū)⒂?0個(gè)項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展前景樂(lè)觀，預(yù)計(jì)將在2023年做出最終投資決定(FID)。

但這并不容易。

伍德麥肯茲副總裁兼上游分析主管弗蘭克·麥凱和上游研究首席分析師格雷格·里多克表示，在油氣項(xiàng)目上做出FID比以前更難了。

他們表示：“盡管自2020年疫情最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期以來(lái)，油氣活動(dòng)仍持續(xù)增加，但2022年批準(zhǔn)的重大項(xiàng)目比年初預(yù)期的要少?！?/p>

2023年前景較好，但伍德麥肯茲表示，由于成本上漲，一些FID可能會(huì)推遲并重新評(píng)估。

分析師解釋說(shuō)：“大多數(shù)運(yùn)營(yíng)商將保持嚴(yán)格的財(cái)政紀(jì)律。少數(shù)回報(bào)較低的項(xiàng)目將繼續(xù)進(jìn)行，因?yàn)樗鼈兙哂袘?zhàn)略重要性?！?/p>

伍德麥肯茲預(yù)計(jì)，今年國(guó)家石油公司(NOC)將控制最大的投資機(jī)會(huì)。這位分析師說(shuō)，最多1850億美元的投資可能用于開(kāi)發(fā)270億桶油當(dāng)量的油氣儲(chǔ)量。

伍德麥肯茲表示：“國(guó)家石油公司今年將占據(jù)FID的主導(dǎo)地位，因?yàn)樗鼈兝昧舜罅恳寻l(fā)現(xiàn)的資源，并擁有最低的單位成本?！眹?guó)際石油公司(IOC)，如圭亞那斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊運(yùn)營(yíng)商?？松梨诠?，將主要關(guān)注高成本、高回報(bào)的深水開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目。

伍德麥肯茲表示：“所有人都將敏銳地意識(shí)到，石油和天然氣項(xiàng)目的批準(zhǔn)將如何在公共領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮作用，以及相關(guān)排放將受到何種審查?！?/p>

此外，伍德麥肯茲表示，今年的項(xiàng)目平均需要每桶49美元才能產(chǎn)生盈虧平衡的15%內(nèi)部回報(bào)率(IRR)。然而，每桶60美元的加權(quán)平均內(nèi)部收益率為19%，這將是2018年以來(lái)的最低水平。

李峻 編譯自 今日石油網(wǎng)

原文如下：

2023 to be a boon year for project approvals with 30 expected to reach FID – WoodMac

Wood Mackenzie predicts a positive outlook for project development with 30 out of the viable 40+ expected to reach final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2023. 

But it does not come easy. 

WoodMac’s Vice President, Head of Upstream Analysis Frank McKay and Principal Analyst, Upstream, Greg Riddock said that achieving FIDs on oil and gas projects is harder than before.

“Despite a continued uptick in activity since the pandemic nadir of 2020, fewer major projects were sanctioned in 2022 than was expected at the start of the year,” they said. 

2023 offers a better outlook, but WoodMac said several FIDs could be delayed and re-evaluated due to cost inflation.

“Most operators will remain very disciplined. A handful of lower-return projects will proceed because of their strategic importance,” the analysts explained. 

WoodMac anticipates that National Oil Companies (NOCs) would control the largest investment opportunities. The analyst said that up to US$185 billion of the investment could be committed to develop 27 billion oil-equivalent barrels of reserves. 

“NOCs will dominate the year, as they take advantage of huge discovered resources and boast the lowest unit costs,” WoodMac said. International Oil Companies (IOCs) like ExxonMobil, the operator of Guyana’s Stabroek Block, will focus largely on higher-cost, higher-return deepwater developments. 

“All will be acutely aware of how oil and gas project sanctions are playing out in the public domain and the scrutiny to which their associated emissions will be subject,” WoodMac outlined. 

Additionally, WoodMac said that projects on 2023 will need an average of US$49/bbl to generate a breakeven 15% internal rate of return (IRR). However, a weighted average IRR of 19% at US$60/bbl, would be the lowest level since 2018.