據(jù)鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站5月10日報(bào)道，美國銀行全球研究部(BofA Global Research)在一份新報(bào)告中表示，貨幣力量正在拖垮布倫特原油價(jià)格，該報(bào)告顯示，該公司已下調(diào)2023年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格預(yù)測。

美國銀行全球研究分析師在報(bào)告中表示：“自我們上次在2月份更新預(yù)測以來，布倫特原油價(jià)格在3月份與美國區(qū)域銀行股價(jià)一起下跌，但在4月份因歐佩克+宣布大幅減產(chǎn)而回升。”

宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟導(dǎo)致布倫特原油價(jià)格持續(xù)走低

“然而，隨著對金融業(yè)健康狀況的擔(dān)憂加劇，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟一直在拖累布倫特原油價(jià)格走低。”分析師們補(bǔ)充道。

在這份報(bào)告中，美國銀行全球研究分析師表示，如果有必要，歐佩克+似乎致力于進(jìn)一步削減石油產(chǎn)量。他們還在報(bào)告中提到，在亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)顯示出復(fù)蘇跡象時(shí)，油價(jià)下跌應(yīng)該會(huì)刺激石油需求。

無論如何，貨幣收緊往往會(huì)比通脹下降提前一兩年。分析師在報(bào)告中警告說，持續(xù)的銀行破產(chǎn)有可能引發(fā)信貸收縮，從而導(dǎo)致需求和大宗商品價(jià)格下跌。

如果美國小型企業(yè)在2023年下半年因信貸收縮而停止招聘，汽油需求可能會(huì)受到進(jìn)一步的影響，石油將失去部分核心優(yōu)勢。分析師補(bǔ)充稱：“從基本面來看，在2022年經(jīng)歷了一段強(qiáng)勁的現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)期后，2023年石油庫存上升導(dǎo)致石油橫向時(shí)間套利的日歷價(jià)差正在逐步減弱。”

2023年美銀布倫特原油預(yù)測

在報(bào)告中，美國銀行全球研究分析師透露，他們已將2023年和2024年的全球石油消費(fèi)增長預(yù)期分別下調(diào)至每日120萬桶和每日100萬桶。分析師在報(bào)告中指出，這一減產(chǎn)是由于經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)需求收縮40萬桶/天，今年和明年每天收縮20萬桶。

“但即使需求前景疲軟，我們預(yù)計(jì)2023年下半年石油市場赤字約為每天100萬桶，2024年石油市場赤字為每天40萬桶，為布倫特原油價(jià)格提供支撐。”分析師在報(bào)告中表示。

“誠然，如果歐佩克+選擇將其減產(chǎn)幅度再加深50萬桶/日或100萬桶/日，這些赤字可能會(huì)擴(kuò)大。”分析師補(bǔ)充道。

“由于負(fù)面的宏觀趨勢將放大未來的需求疲軟情況，我們將2023年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格預(yù)測下調(diào)至每桶80美元。即便如此，我們?nèi)詫?024年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測維持在每桶90美元，因?yàn)槲覀兿嘈沤?jīng)合組織的需求最終將會(huì)改善，而歐佩克+可能會(huì)繼續(xù)積極主動(dòng)地管理供應(yīng)。”分析師們繼續(xù)說道。

張璐婕 編譯自 鉆井地帶 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：Monetary Forces Are Dragging Down Brent Oil Prices

Monetary forces are dragging down Brent crude prices, BofA Global Research stated in a new report, which revealed that the company has cut its average Brent price forecast for 2023.

“Since we last updated our forecasts in February, Brent crude prices have fallen with regional U.S. bank shares in March only to recover in April as OPEC+ announced a big production cut,” BofA Global Research analysts stated in the report.

'Macro weakness has kept dragging Brent crude prices lower'.

“Yet macro weakness has kept dragging Brent crude prices lower as concerns mounted over the health of the financial sector,” the analysts added.

“While central banks continue to overcorrect for their last policy mistake (high inflation), oil is rushing to anticipate disinflation and a U.S. recession driven by bank failures and tighter lending conditions,” the analysts continued.

“On top of that, U.S. debt ceiling tensions risk further exacerbating these negative macro headwinds, with credit default swaps (CDS) on U.S. Treasuries now trading at the highest levels since 2009,” the analysts went on to note.

In the report, BofA Global Research analysts stated that OPEC+ seems committed to cut oil output further if the need arises. They also said in the report that lower oil prices should incentivize demand at a time Asian economy is showing signs of a recovery.

“At any rate, tighter money tends to precede falling inflation by a year or two. Continued bank failures risk triggering a credit contraction that drags demand down and commodity prices lower,” the analysts warned in the report.

“Should small U.S. businesses stop hiring in 2H23 as credit shrinks, gasoline demand could suffer and oil would lose some of its core strength. Fundamentally, following a robust period of backwardation in 2022, oil timespreads have weakened in 2023 on rising oil inventories,” the analysts added.

2023 BofA Brent Forecast

In the report, the BofA Global Research analysts revealed that they had revised down their global oil consumption growth expectations to 1.2 million barrels per day and one million barrels per day in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The analysts stated in the report that this cut is driven by an expected OECD demand contraction of 0.4 million barrels per day and 0.2 million barrels per day this year and next year.

“But even with a weaker demand outlook, we project oil market deficits of around one million barrels per day for 2H23 and 0.4 million barrels per day for 2024, lending support to Brent crude oil prices,” the analysts said in the report.

“Admittedly, these deficits could grow wider if OPEC+ chooses to deepen its production cuts by another 0.5 million barrels per day or one million barrels per day,” the analysts added.

“With negative macro trends poised to amplify demand weakness ahead, we cut our average Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel in 2023. Even then, we leave our 2024 Brent crude oil forecast at $90 per barrel because we believe OECD demand will eventually improve while OPEC+ will likely keep proactively and pre-emptively managing supply,” the analysts continued.