據(jù)油氣新聞網(wǎng)6月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)表示，疫情后復(fù)蘇對(duì)石油需求增長(zhǎng)的提振將于今年結(jié)束，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)和向更清潔燃料的過(guò)渡將從2024年開(kāi)始削弱增長(zhǎng)。

IEA執(zhí)行主任法提赫·比羅爾表示，向清潔能源經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)變正在加快，隨著電動(dòng)汽車(chē)、能源效率和其他技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，全球石油需求有望在本世紀(jì)二十年代末達(dá)到峰值。

IEA在周三發(fā)布的月度報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，2023年全球石油需求將增加240萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到歷史最高水平的1.023億桶/日。

然而，該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，經(jīng)濟(jì)阻力將使明年的產(chǎn)量增幅降至86萬(wàn)桶/日，而電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的使用增加將有助于在2028年將其降至40萬(wàn)桶/日，總需求為1.057億桶/日。

IEA表示，在能源安全擔(dān)憂加劇的情況下，地緣政治沖突爆發(fā)，以及各國(guó)政府在疫情后時(shí)代的恢復(fù)支出計(jì)劃，加速了增幅的放緩。到2030年，將調(diào)動(dòng)超過(guò)2萬(wàn)億美元用于清潔能源投資。

IEA補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，不包括生物燃料、石化原料和其他非能源使用在內(nèi)，對(duì)來(lái)自可燃化石燃料的石油需求將在2028年達(dá)到8160萬(wàn)桶/日的峰值。

郝芬 譯自 油氣新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Economic outlook, energy transition to curb oil demand:IEA

The boost to oil demand growth from the post-pandemic recovery is set to end this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, with economic challenges and the transition to cleaner fuels sapping growth from 2024.

"The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Global oil demand will grow by 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to a record 102.3 million bpd, the IEA said in its monthly report on Wednesday.

However, the agency expects economic headwinds to reduce growth to 860,000 bpd next year and increasing use of electric vehicles to help to reduce that to 400,000 bpd in 2028 for overall demand of 105.7 million bpd.

"The slowdown has been hastened by the war amid heightened energy security concerns and by governments’ post-Covid recovery spending plans, with more than $2 trillion mobilised for clean energy investments by 2030," the IEA said.

Demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels, excluding biofuels, petrochemical feedstocks and other non-energy uses, is set to peak at 81.6 million bpd in 2028, it added.