據世界能源網6月16日報道，據EIA最新中期報告預計，2026年后，用于運輸的石油使用量將下降，但預計強勁的石化需求將繼續(xù)支撐整體消費。

該機構今天發(fā)布的一份新報告《2023年石油中期市場報告》顯示，未來幾年，世界石油需求的增長將放緩，幾乎停止，全球能源危機凸顯的高價格和供應安全問題加速了向清潔能源技術的轉變。

《2023年石油中期市場報告》預測，根據當前政府政策和市場趨勢，2022年至2028年間，全球石油需求將增長6%，達到1.057億桶/日，這得益于石化和航空行業(yè)的強勁需求。盡管有這一累計增長，但預計年需求增長將從今年的240萬桶/日萎縮至2028年的40萬桶/天，需求將達到峰值。

特別是，隨著電動汽車的擴張、生物燃料的增長和燃料經濟性的提高，2026年后，用于運輸燃料的石油使用量將下降。

EIA執(zhí)行主任法提赫·比羅爾（Fatih Birol）表示：“向清潔能源經濟的轉變正在加快，隨著電動汽車、能源效率和其他技術的進步，全球石油需求有望在這個十年達到峰值。”“石油生產商需要密切關注不斷加快的變化步伐，并調整投資決策，以確保有序過渡。”

在經歷了三年的動蕩之后，全球石油市場仍在緩慢地重新調整。在這三年里，石油市場首先被疫情所顛覆，然后又被地緣政治沖突所顛覆。這些引發(fā)的全球能源危機導致了全球貿易流的空前重組。隨著歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的減產緩和了全球石油供應的上升，全球石油市場可能在未來幾個月大幅收緊。然而，根據新的報告，市場面臨的多方面壓力似乎將在未來幾年逐步緩解。

盡管如此，新興和發(fā)展中經濟體蓬勃發(fā)展的石化需求和強勁消費增長將遠遠抵消發(fā)達經濟體收縮帶來的影響。

全球石油和天然氣勘探、開采和生產的上游投資有望達到2015年以來的最高水平，2023年同比增長11%達到5280億美元。雖然支出增加的影響將被成本通脹部分抵消，但如果持續(xù)下去，這一投資水平將足以滿足報告所述期間的預測需求。然而，它超過了一個步入凈零排放軌道的世界所需的數量。

該報告的預測假設，即使需求增長放緩，主要石油生產商仍維持其產能建設計劃。預計這將產生至少380萬桶/日的備用緩沖容量，主要集中在中東地區(qū)。盡管如此，該報告指出了一些可能影響中期市場平衡的因素，包括不確定的全球經濟趨勢、歐佩克+決策的方向以及亞洲煉油業(yè)政策。

歐佩克+聯(lián)盟以外的產油國主導了中期內增加全球供應能力的計劃，預計到2028年產能將增加510萬桶/日，美國、巴西和圭亞那將領漲。沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋和伊拉克領導了歐佩克+內部的產能建設計劃，而非洲和亞洲成員國將與持續(xù)下降產能進行斗爭，產能大國的產量也因制裁而下降。這使得歐佩克+的23個成員國在報告預測期內的凈產能增加了80萬桶/天。

在煉油行業(yè)，自疫情以來，由于一波又一波的關閉、向生物燃料工廠的轉換和項目延誤，全球產能的過剩已經減少。加上亞洲石油產品出口的急劇下降和產能大國貿易流的動蕩，該行業(yè)去年的利潤創(chuàng)下了歷史新高。盡管到2028年，煉廠凈新增產能預計將超過精煉產品的需求增長，但各產品之間的差異趨勢意味著，2022年中間餾分油的緊張狀況存在再次出現的可能。

IEA最新中期報告預計，2026年后，用于運輸的石油使用量將下降，但預計強勁的石化需求仍將支撐整體消費。

林圣澤 編譯自 世界能源網

原文如下：

Growth in Global Oil Demand Is Set to Slow Significantly by 2028

New IEA medium-term report sees oil use for transport going into decline after 2026, but overall consumption is expected to be supported by strong petrochemicals demand.

Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.

The Oil 2023 medium-term market report forecasts that based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) –supported by robust demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors. Despite this cumulative increase, annual demand growth is expected to shrivel from 2.4 mb/d this year to just 0.4 mb/d in 2028, putting a peak in demand in sight.

In particular, the use of oil for transport fuels is set to go into decline after 2026 as the expansion of electric vehicles, the growth of biofuels and improving fuel economy reduce consumption.

“The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance,”said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition.”

Global oil markets are still slowly recalibrating after three turbulent years in which they were upended first by the Covid-19 pandemic and then by the war. The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has resulted in an unprecedented reshuffling of global trade flows. Global oil markets could tighten significantly in the coming months, as production cuts by the OPEC+ alliance temper an upswing in global oil supplies. However, the multifaceted strains on markets look set to ease in the following years, according to the new report.

Nevertheless, burgeoning petrochemical demand and strong consumption growth in emerging and developing economies will more than offset a contraction in advanced economies.

Global upstream investments in oil and gas exploration, extraction and production are on course to reach their highest levels since 2015, growing 11% year-on-year to USD 528 billion in 2023. While the impact of higher spending will be partly offset by cost inflation, this level of investment, if sustained, would be adequate to meet forecast demand in the period covered by the report. However, it exceeds the amount that would be needed in a world that gets on track for net zero emissions.

The report’s projections assume major oil producers maintain their plans to build up capacity even as demand growth slows. This is expected to result in a spare capacity cushion of at least 3.8 mb/d, concentrated in the Middle East. The report nonetheless notes a number of factors that could affect market balances over the medium term –including uncertain global economic trends, the direction of OPEC+ decisions and Asian refining industry policy.

Oil producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance dominate plans for increasing global supply capacity in the medium term, with an expected rise of 5.1 mb/d by 2028 led by the United States, Brazil and Guyana. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq lead the plans for capacity building within OPEC+, while African and Asian members are set to struggle with continuing declines, and the largger producer's production falls due to sanctions. This makes for a net capacity gain of 0.8 mb/d from the 23 members in OPEC+ overall over the report’s forecast period.

In the refining sector, the overhang in global capacity has been reduced by waves of closures, conversions to biofuel plants and project delays since the pandemic. This, combined with a sharp drop in Asian oil product exports and an upheaval of the largger producer trade flows, resulted in record profits for the industry last year. While the amount of net refinery capacity additions by 2028 is expected to outpace demand growth for refined products, diverging trends among products means that a repeat of the 2022 tightness in middle distillates cannot be ruled out.

New IEA medium-term report sees oil use for transport going into decline after 2026, but overall consumption is expected to be supported by strong petrochemicals demand.