由于致密油和頁巖氣地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量增加，美國今年的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到1240萬桶，達(dá)到歷史最高水平

盡管在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量減少，且此前開鉆但未完鉆（DUC）井?dāng)?shù)量減少，但二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油日產(chǎn)量仍達(dá)到了580萬桶的新高

由于美國戰(zhàn)略石油儲備降至1983年以來的最低水平，市場擔(dān)憂加劇；今年下半年的油價在很大程度上取決于沙特阿拉伯和歐佩克的決定

  據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年6月19日報道，我（本文作者）對2023年能源的預(yù)測之一是，美國今年將創(chuàng)下年度石油產(chǎn)量歷史新高。由于時間正接近今年年中，這一預(yù)測仍在朝著準(zhǔn)確的方向發(fā)展。

EIA最新的每周石油狀況報告顯示，目前美國石油產(chǎn)量為1240萬桶/天。這比一年前增加了40萬桶/天，但仍低于2019年11月達(dá)到的1300萬桶/天的水平。盡管如此，今年迄今美國的石油產(chǎn)量仍高于2019年歷史最高的1230萬桶/天。

致密油和頁巖氣地區(qū)仍然是美國油氣產(chǎn)量增長的主要推動力。二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油日產(chǎn)量達(dá)到了580萬桶的歷史最高水平，甚至超過了沙特阿拉伯探明石油儲量最大的蓋瓦爾油田。然而，近幾個月來，二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油產(chǎn)量增長放緩，新井只是抵消了老井的產(chǎn)量下降。

根據(jù)貝克休斯公司公布的在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，自去年以來，美國的在用石油鉆機(jī)數(shù)量下降了5%。然而，以前開鉆但未完鉆(DUC)井的庫存量也在繼續(xù)下降。在過去的一年里，DUC井的庫存量下降了8%，但在過去的3年里，DUC井的庫存量下降了45%。從這個角度來看，美國DUC井庫存量目前處于大約十年來的最低水平。

這意味著產(chǎn)量的增加主要是由DUC井驅(qū)動的。隨著DUC井庫存量的持續(xù)下降，產(chǎn)量可能會進(jìn)一步增加，但為了使石油產(chǎn)量從目前的水平大幅增加，在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量可能會很快增加。

戰(zhàn)略石油儲備(SPR)仍然是一個令人擔(dān)憂的問題，因?yàn)槟壳暗膸齑嫣幱?983年以來的最低水平。在過去一年里，為了應(yīng)對不斷上漲的油價，SPR的庫存水平已消耗31%。可以說，這在一定程度上抑制了去年油價的上漲，但也讓美國在真正緊急的情況下失去了一個實(shí)質(zhì)性緩沖。

當(dāng)然，這種活動在很大程度上是由價格驅(qū)動的。石油價格從去年的120美元/桶下降到今天的不到70美元/桶。汽油零售均價也從一年前的每加侖5.11美元降至目前的每加侖3.71美元。汽油價格已經(jīng)回到了地緣政治沖突之前的水平。

今年下半年的情況將在很大程度上取決于沙特阿拉伯和歐佩克。他們已經(jīng)發(fā)出信號，他們覺得定價權(quán)已經(jīng)回到了對他們有利的方向。事實(shí)上，隨著SPR庫存量的減少，如果沙特阿拉伯繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)，美國就沒有太多可用的工具來應(yīng)對油價飆升。

所有這些都表明，今年下半年油價可能會上漲。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The Permian Basin Is Out-Producing Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar Field

? The U.S. is predicted to break a new record in oil production this year, with current production at 12.4 million barrels per day, primarily due to increased output in tight oil and shale gas regions.

? Despite a decline in the number of drilling rigs and a depletion of wells previously drilled but uncompleted, the Permian Basin has reached a new high of 5.8 million barrels per day.

? Concerns rise as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reaches its lowest level since 1983; oil prices in the second half of the year are largely dependent on decisions made by Saudi Arabia and OPEC.

One of my 2023 energy predictions was that the U.S. would set a new annual oil production record this year. As we approach the midpoint of the year, this prediction is still tracking toward being accurate.

The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows current U.S. oil production to be 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd). That’s an increase of 400,000 bpd from a year ago, but still short of the 13.0 million bpd level reached in November 2019. Nevertheless, year-to-date oil production is running ahead of the record 12.3 million bpd level for all of 2019.

The tight oil and shale gas regions continue to be the primary driver of rising U.S. oil and gas production. The Permian Basin has reached an all-time high of 5.8 million bpd, out-producing even Saudi Arabia’s massive Ghawar oilfield. However, production gains in the Permian have slowed in recent months, with new wells just offsetting the production decline in legacy wells.

According to the Baker Hughes rig count, the number of wells drilling for oil in the U.S. has declined by 5% since last year. However, the inventory of wells that were previously drilled but uncompleted (DUC) also continues to decline. Over the past year, the DUC inventory has decreased by 8%, but it’s down a whopping 45% over the past three years. For perspective, the DUC inventory is now at its lowest level in about a decade.

This means that production increases are primarily being driven by finishing previously drilled wells. Production may be able to increase a bit more as the DUC inventory continues to decline, but the rig count will likely have to increase soon for oil production to increase much from current levels.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a concern, as the current inventory is at the lowest level since 1983. Over the past year, the level of the SPR has been depleted by 31% in an effort to combat rising oil prices. That arguably helped stem the rise in oil prices last year, but it removed a substantial cushion the U.S. had in case of a real emergency.

Of course, much of this activity is being driven by price. Oil prices have declined from $120 a barrel (bbl) at this time last year to just under $70/bbl today. In turn, average retail gasoline prices have declined from $5.11 a gallon a year ago to $3.71 a gallon at present. Gasoline prices have returned to about the level they were at prior to the war.

What happens in the second half of the year will largely depend upon Saudi Arabia and OPEC. They are already signaling that they feel like pricing power has shifted back in their favor. Indeed, with a reduced SPR inventory, the U.S. doesn’t have a lot of tools available for fighting an oil price surge if Saudi production cuts continue.

All of this suggests that oil prices will likely increase during the second half of the year.