據(jù)美國鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站2023年6月22日報(bào)道，在北美天然氣市場經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)平靜的淡季之后，今年夏季已經(jīng)到來，天然氣需求屆時(shí)將激增。

這是挪威能源資訊機(jī)構(gòu)雷斯塔能源公司（Rysted）能源分析師埃德·艾倫在6月20日發(fā)給美國鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站的北美天然氣和液化天然氣市場更新報(bào)告中所說的。

艾倫在最新報(bào)告中稱：“過去幾個(gè)月，強(qiáng)勁的供應(yīng)和較冷的天氣使天然氣價(jià)格保持在低位，但隨著整個(gè)地區(qū)氣溫上升，住宅和商業(yè)場所的制冷需求意味著天然氣價(jià)格上漲即將到來。”

“降溫天數(shù)(CDD)的頻率對天然氣需求有重大影響，由于美國大部分地區(qū)都在應(yīng)對初夏的嚴(yán)重?zé)崂耍烊粴庑枨髮⒊霈F(xiàn)實(shí)質(zhì)性上升。”艾倫補(bǔ)充認(rèn)為。

艾倫在更新報(bào)告中指出，雷斯塔能源的模型預(yù)測，由于煤制氣轉(zhuǎn)換有限和國內(nèi)天然氣價(jià)格競爭力，今年夏天美國大陸天然氣電力需求將達(dá)到每天500億立方英尺。

“我們預(yù)計(jì)今年夏季(6月至8月)天然氣電力需求平均為每天424億立方英尺，7月份天然氣需求峰值為每天450億立方英尺。”艾倫在最新報(bào)告中稱。

他補(bǔ)充說：“美國中南部和東部地區(qū)天然氣將利用最多，平均每天分別為127億立方英尺和185億立方英尺。”

降溫天數(shù)軌跡

艾倫在最新報(bào)告中表示，隨著氣候變暖，降溫天數(shù)的發(fā)展軌跡發(fā)生了變化，國內(nèi)平衡將受到天然氣發(fā)電需求增加的重大影響。

“天氣是不可預(yù)測的，因此我們的預(yù)測是保守的，所以如果氣溫高于3年平均水平，天然氣電力需求的平均水平將高于預(yù)期。”艾倫繼續(xù)表示。

在更新報(bào)告中，艾倫指出，本周可能成為區(qū)域天然氣需求超過預(yù)期的前兆，“因?yàn)榈每怂_斯州的平均氣溫預(yù)計(jì)將超過100華氏度（37攝氏度），這可能會(huì)對電網(wǎng)造成考驗(yàn)”。

艾倫認(rèn)為：“直至6月19日，根據(jù)得克薩斯州電力可靠性委員會(huì)(ERCOT)公布的數(shù)據(jù)，天然氣需求占燃料組合的56%。”

“基于這些數(shù)據(jù)，天然氣的利用率相對于夏季產(chǎn)能約為81%，因此如果氣溫繼續(xù)升高，區(qū)域市場可以預(yù)期更高的天然氣需求。”艾倫補(bǔ)充說。

亨利中心價(jià)格

艾倫在更新報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)，夏季天然氣發(fā)電需求將對今年的市場平衡和短期亨利中心價(jià)格產(chǎn)生重大影響。

他說：“今年美國天然氣國內(nèi)市場一直很寬松，因?yàn)槭袌鰬?yīng)對了由于2022/2023年冬季比正常溫暖而導(dǎo)致的庫存增加。”

他補(bǔ)充說：“這種情況，加上供應(yīng)的增長，導(dǎo)致亨利中心價(jià)格下跌，并降低了今年的價(jià)格前景。”

艾倫繼續(xù)說：“我們的估計(jì)表明，今年天然氣價(jià)格將保持低迷，然而，夏季需求的上升將為國內(nèi)平衡提供一些急需的緊縮措施，并為亨利中心的價(jià)格設(shè)定短期底線。” 

艾倫繼續(xù)說道：“我們估計(jì)亨利中心夏季天然氣的平均價(jià)格為每百萬英熱單位2.73美元(比當(dāng)前的期貨曲線溢價(jià)2.5%)，今年的剩余時(shí)間為每百萬英熱單位2.91美元。”

雷斯塔能源分析師指出，該公司的核心觀點(diǎn)表明，期貨曲線正在消化夏季天然氣需求的影響，并表示，除非出現(xiàn)重大天氣事件，“我們可能會(huì)看到比預(yù)期的每周注入量更少，這將改變美國大陸的存儲(chǔ)軌跡，并提供短期看漲價(jià)格行動(dòng)”。

在6月早些時(shí)候發(fā)布的最新短期能源展望報(bào)告中，EIA預(yù)計(jì)今年亨利中心天然氣價(jià)格為每百萬英熱單位2.20美元，第三季度為每百萬英熱單位2.62美元。最新的能源展望報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)，去年亨利中心的天然氣現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為每百萬英熱單位6.42美元。

在5月份發(fā)布的上一份短期能源展望報(bào)告中，EIA預(yù)計(jì)到今年亨利中心天然氣的平均成本為每百萬英熱單位2.91美元。 

亨利中心價(jià)格基本面

在6月21日發(fā)給美國鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站的另一份市場更新報(bào)告中，雷斯塔能源高級分析師Lu Ming Pang強(qiáng)調(diào)，亨利中心的天然氣價(jià)格從6月15日的每百萬英熱單位2.41美元上漲至6月20日的2.54美元。

Pang在最新報(bào)告中表示：“基本面保持不變，高庫存水平繼續(xù)抑制價(jià)格，特別是在液化廠維修后天然氣需求較低的時(shí)期。”

“到6月9日，亨利中心天然氣庫存量目前為26340億立方英尺，比五年平均水平高出約15%，比去年同期高出27%。”Pang補(bǔ)充認(rèn)為。

“到6月9日的注入儲(chǔ)氣量達(dá)到840億立方英尺，比五年平均水平高出約7%，比去年同期的940億立方英尺低11%”，Pang繼續(xù)說道。

在更新報(bào)告中，該機(jī)構(gòu)的分析師指出，美國中部地區(qū)和南大西洋地區(qū)的降溫天數(shù)高于中大西洋地區(qū)和太平洋地區(qū)，他說這些地區(qū)的溫度更接近基準(zhǔn)溫度。

“總的來說，美國仍然顯示大約35個(gè)降溫天數(shù)，這意味著溫度并不比基線高多少，這意味著我們?nèi)栽诘却烊粴獍l(fā)電冷卻需求的回升。”Pang表示。

他補(bǔ)充說：“這種情況將在7月份發(fā)生變化，屆時(shí)氣溫預(yù)計(jì)將高于平均水平，這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致天然氣發(fā)電冷卻需求增加。”

“然而，今年迄今為止強(qiáng)勁的天然氣庫存水平可能只會(huì)導(dǎo)致天然氣價(jià)格出現(xiàn)溫和變化”，艾倫如是說。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Pricier Gas is on the Horizon

After a muted shoulder season for North American gas markets, summer has arrived with a bang and demand is set to surge.

That’s what Rystad Energy Analyst Ade Allen said in a North America gas and LNG market update, which was sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.

“Strong supply and cooler weather kept prices low in the last few months, but as temperatures rise across the region, the need for cooling in residential and commercial settings means pricier gas is on the horizon,” Allen said in the update.

“The frequency of Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) has a significant impact on gas demand, and as much of the U.S. deals with a crippling early-summer heat wave, there will be a material uptick in gas demand,” he added.

Allen noted in the update that Rystad modeling projects daily Lower 48 gas power demand will reach 50 billion cubic feet per day this summer due to limited coal-to-gas switching and domestic gas price competitiveness.

“We expect gas for power demand for the summer period (June to August) to average 42.4 billion cubic feet per day, with demand peaking in July at 45.0 billion cubic feet per day,” Allen said in the update.

“South-Central and East regions will utilize the most, averaging 12.7 billion cubic feet per day and 18.5 billion cubic feet per day, respectively,” he added.

CDDs Trajectory

As the trajectory of CDDs changes with warmer weather, domestic balances will see a significant impact via increases in gas-for-power demand, Allen stated in the update.

“Weather is unpredictable and our forecasts are conservative as a result, so if temperatures are warmer than the three-year average, gas for power demand averages will be higher than expected,” he continued.

In the update, Allen noted that this week could serve as a precursor for regional gas demand overshooting estimates “as temperatures in Texas are expected to average over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, potentially putting the grid to the test”.

“As of yesterday [Monday], per the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), natural gas represents ~56 percent of the fuel mix,” Allen said.

“At those levels, natural gas is running at around 81 percent utilization relative to summer capacity, so if temperatures remain elevated, the regional market can expect higher gas demand,” he added.

Henry Hub Price

Summer gas-for-power demand will have material implications on 2023 balances and short-term Henry Hub prices, Allen highlighted in the statement.

“The domestic market has been loose in 2023, as the market dealt with elevated inventories due to a warmer than normal winter in 2022/23,” he said.

“This scenario, combined with the growth in supply, has precipitated the decline in Henry Hub prices and diminished the price outlook for 2023,” he added.

“Our estimates indicate prices will remain subdued in 2023, however, the uptick in summer demand will provide some much-needed tightening for domestic balances and set a short-term floor for Henry Hub prices,” he continued.

“We estimate summer Henry Hub prices will average $2.73 per MMBtu (+2.5 percent premium to the current futures curve) and $2.91 per MMBtu for the balance of 2023,” Allen went on to state.

The Rystad analyst noted that the company’s central view indicates the futures curve is discounting the implications of summer gas demand and said that, barring a material weather event, “we could see narrower than expected weekly injections, which will change the trajectory for Lower 48 storage and provide short-term bullish price action”.

In its latest short term energy outlook, which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that Henry Hub natural gas spot price would average $2.66 per MMBtu this year. The June EIA STEO sees the commodity coming in at $2.20 per MMBtu in the second quarter and $2.62 per MMBtu in the third quarter. Last year, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $6.42 per MMBtu, the latest STEO highlighted.

In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected that Henry Hub would average $2.91 per MMBtu in 2023.

Henry Hub Fundamentals

In a separate market update sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Rystad Senior Analyst Lu Ming Pang highlighted that Henry Hub prices increased to $2.54 per MMBtu on June 20 from $2.41 per MMBtu on June 15.

“The fundamentals remain the same, with high storage levels continuing to suppress prices, especially amidst a period of lower gas demand following maintenance at liquefaction plants,” Pang said in the update.

“Storage levels are now at 2,634 billion cubic feet as of June 9, some 15 percent higher than the five-year average and 27 percent higher than the same period last year,” Pang added.

“Injections into storage reached 84 billion cubic feet on June 9, some seven percent higher than the five-year average and 11 percent lower than the 94 Bcf seen this time last year,” Pang continued.

In the update, the Rystad analyst pointed out that the U.S. Central and South Atlantic regions are indicating higher CDDs than the Middle Atlantic and Pacific regions, which he said are tracking closer to baseline temperatures.

“As a whole, the U.S. is still indicating about 35 CDDs, implying that temperatures are not much above the baseline, meaning we are still awaiting a pick-up in gas power demand for cooling,” Pang said.

“This is set to change in July when temperatures are expected to be warmer than average, which may cause gas power demand for cooling to increase,” he added.

“However, strong storage levels so far this year could result on only modest changes to prices,” he continued.